While you might not be familiar with my writing as this is my first article for FantasyPros, today we’ll be dealing with FantasyPros’ Zeile projections, which you should be familiar with. If not, you can read more about the Zeile projections here. Named after the former journeyman third baseman Todd Zeile, the projections pull data from many different sources, such as FanGraphs and CBS Sports, in the same way that Zeile played for many different teams.
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Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY)
While everyone knows Stanton’s biggest drawback throughout his career has been his durability as he’s only played more than 125 games in a season three times, health wasn’t the only factor driving his titanic 2017 campaign. He made a major skill change by cutting his strikeout percentage from 29 percent to 23 percent, which allowed him to hit .281. Also, the Marlins lineup was deeper and more talented than any he had played with before, helping him total 123 runs scored and 132 RBI. The offseason trade to the Yankees provides Stanton with an even deeper supporting cast to keep his run totals healthy and the opportunity to see time as a designated hitter, which in turn could keep him on the field more. We all know he’s going to hit for power, and in New York he’ll likely threaten 60 home runs again. Stanton isn’t going to come as some kind of value in drafts as he’s obviously a first-round pick, but according to the Zeile projections he’s fourth in projected CBS points and his ADP (9) is a little later.
Anthony Rizzo (1B – CHC)
Rizzo has been an incredibly consistent performer over the last three seasons as he’s averaged 96 runs, 32 home runs, 106 RBI, 10 stolen bases, and .281 AVG in that time. Last year, he showed he’s still continuing to improve his skills as his walk percentage increased from 10 percent to 13 percent and his strikeout percentage decreased from 16 percent to 13 percent. Rizzo finished the 2017 season with a .273 AVG even though he hit just .259 in the first half and finished the season with a .273 BABIP. His career BABIP is .287, which shows that there’s still some room for improvement with his average. Rizzo is one of the safest investments in all of fantasy and provides value at his current second-round ADP (21.2). According to the Zeile projections, Rizzo is projected to be fifth in CBS points, lending more credence to the argument that he should be a late first-round pick.
Brian Dozier (2B – MIN)
Dozier seemingly gets very little respect from humans, so at least the computer projections seem to like him. It begs the question; what’s not to like about a player who’s averaged 104 runs, 35 home runs, 90 RBI, 15 stolen bases and a .258 AVG over the last three years? I assume that the answer is he hit .236 in 2015 and fantasy owners have let that number stick in their minds for years. Dozier has hit .268 and .271 in the two years since then. While I don’t believe a .280 campaign is in the near future, I also don’t see him hitting .236 again soon. He maintained a high 20 percent strikeout percentage in 2017 but also increased his walk percentage from eight percent in 2016 to 11 percent, which shows he’s not just hacking away at the plate. His on-base percentage increased from .340 to .359, giving him more opportunities to score runs and steal bases. Dozier, who finished last year as the 17th overall player in fantasy according to CBS, has a third-round ADP (34.5) despite the fact that Zeile projects him to be 18th overall in CBS points.
Carlos Santana (1B – PHI)
Can we call Santana “old reliable” at just 31-years-old? He’s played at least 152 games in six of the last seven seasons for the Indians. Now with the Phillies, Santana will still hit in the middle of a dangerous lineup in a favorable ballpark for hitters. Despite carrying a .260 AVG, his plate discipline secures his substantial floor as he’s walked at least 88 times each of the last seven seasons. In the last two seasons, those walk totals helped him reach runs scored totals of 90 and 89. Santana’s home run power is coming into question now as he’s totaled 23, 34, and 19 home runs in his last three seasons. While the 19 home runs he hit in 2015 were somewhat concerning, he hit a career-high 37 doubles to go along with his 23 homers last year. It’s reasonable to assume that a few of those doubles turn into home runs this season and Santana sits comfortably in the mid-20s in home runs at the end of the year. An underrated aspect of Santana’s game is his ability to steal a few bases. In addition to being a gold glove first baseman, he’s also an intelligent base runner despite not being particularly fast. Over the last four seasons, he’s totaled 26 stolen bases. While he’s topped five steals just once (in 2015), it’s still part of his game and every little bit helps in that category. Santana’s numbers are fairly predictable as he’s just about as steady as they come. While that limits his upside, his dependability might let you take more chances for upside elsewhere on your roster. Another benefit is that at his current ADP (148), you don’t need to target Santana early on in drafts despite Zeile projecting him to finish 35th overall in CBS points.
Jake Lamb (3B – ARZ)
Lamb essentially repeated his 2016 season last year, only with more runs scored and RBI on his way to finishing as the 49th overall player in CBS leagues. The similarities didn’t end there as he once again did most of his damage in the first half of the season, crushed right-handed pitching (.282/.386/.552), and was over-matched by left-handed pitching (.144/.269/.288). Despite Lamb’s consistency and production over his first two full seasons as an everyday player, he seems to be discounted in drafts as his ADP is 126.8. This is puzzling to me as I don’t see what’s suddenly going to change for him this year. Surely the humidor alone isn’t causing Lamb to be drafted about 75 spots after where he finished last season. How much longer the Diamondbacks continue to pencil his name in the lineup against left-handed starters remains a question and perhaps if Nick Ahmed sticks as the everyday shortstop then Chris Owings will begin to take some playing time away from Lamb. Even if we assume that happens, while Lamb would lose opportunities for runs scored and RBI, he also wouldn’t be dragging down his AVG against lefties.
Like the other hitters on this list, Lamb is an established player who is undervalued without a whole lot of reasoning behind it. Personally, those are my favorite buying opportunities in fantasy because older, established players are more predictable than some of the shiny new toys that tend to drive auction bidding. Remember, you aren’t trying to build the most entertaining team, you’re just trying to win.
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Nick Shlain is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @electricsnuff.
