Less than a week remains before MLB’s early Opening Day. As many fantasy players finalize their cheat sheets for the weekend, others are realizing the pitfalls of early drafts.

Unlucky managers must already regroup after losing Justin Tucker to a broken wrist and/or Jorge Polanco to an 80-game suspension. Steven Souza and Jeff Samardzija could join them on the shelf, and late lottery picks like Jharel Cotton and Jared Eickhoff will get tossed back into the waiver wire. Those drafting over the next few days can adjust to those developments while examining spring training data for valuation changes. These players, in particular, have gained or lost steam heading into the season.

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Risers

Yasmani Grandal (C – LAD)
Yasmani Grandal sees you letting him slip in favor of Austin Barnes, and he’s not having it. On a mission to stay the Dodgers’ starting catcher, he’s hitting .333/.395/.769 with five home runs. Still don’t think he’s going to play?

Over the last three seasons, Buster Posey is the only catcher with a higher wOBA and wRC+ than Grandal, who ranks third behind Posey and J.T. Realmuto in fWAR. Even when his walk percentage tumbled to 8.3, power and pitch-framing maintained his status as one of the game’s premier backstops. He nevertheless has a lower consensus ADP than Barnes, who submitted a .408 on-base percentage in 262 plate appearance.

The Barnes bandwagon has gotten a bit out of hand, but Turner’s injury could give the backup catcher more opportunities at second base if Logan Forsythe slides to third. Either way, Grandal will likely receive more playing time than expected. He’s a valuable power source in two-catcher formats and a streaky hitter who will provide spurts of value in one-catcher leagues.

Lewis Brinson (OF – MIA)
The Lewis Brinson buzz would be out of control if he didn’t get a brief MLB cup of coffee last year. While the prospect dominated Triple-A pitching (.331/.400/.562), he went 5-for-47 with 17 strikeouts against the big boys. Just like that, he has an ADP outside the top 300 despite getting traded from the crowded Brewers to the barren Marlins.

On Tuesday, the 23-year-old led off the game by taking Stephen Strasburg yard. That lineup placement might not be meaningless March noise, as Marlins manager Don Mattingly is considering beginning his lineup card with Brinson on top. Even if he decides otherwise, that at least appears to tip Miami’s hand on where he will open 2018. Despite its notorious frugality, the organization has often aggressively pushed up prospects in lieu of manipulating service time.

Brinson brings immediate 20/20 upside to the table, and 15/15 isn’t overly optimistic if the Marlins let him play all season. Not many leadoff hitters with power and speed are available for a bench pick, so the talk warrants attention.

Jorge Soler (OF – KC)
Jorge Soler badly needed to remind onlookers of his lofty power promise after hitting .144/245/.258 in 110 dreadful big league plate appearances last year. Mission accomplished: He has belted six home runs and three doubles in hopes of clubbing his way back to the majors.

With Lorenzo Cain on the Brewers and Jorge Bonifacio serving an 80-game suspension, Soler has little competition for a starting gig. The 26-year-old should lock down an everyday DH or corner-outfield role while batting no later than sixth in a depleted lineup. Yet before anticipating a long-delayed rise to stardom, consider that the outfielder has also struck out 15 times in 59 appearances this spring. A 28.2 career strikeout percentage has limited him to a .244 batting average, so he’s not going to dust off 2014’s small-sample aided .292/.330./.573 slash line that had fans envisioning a future All-Star. At this point in his development, hitting .250 with 20-25 homers would signify significant redemption for Soler. That’s disappointing when recalling his high prospect pedigree, but it’d pay off his 398.7 consensus ADP in deep leagues.

Other Risers: Michael Conforto, Lance McCullers, Lucas Giolito, Mike Minor, Kyle Tucker, Sean Newcomb, Dan Vogelbach

Fallers

Shohei Ohtani (SP/DH – LAA)
A stellar spring might have propelled Shohei Ohtani into the top 50. Instead, he’s in danger of slipping outside the top 100. The unprecedented hype has evaporated with the two-way star struggling on both sides. Any thoughts of bidding $1 on the hitter in Yahoo formats have vanished as he continues to search for his first extra-base hit. On the mound, he has surrendered nine runs (eight earned) and three homers in 2.2 wildly disappointing innings.

Before drafters witnessed the “Japanese Babe Ruth” in action, they reached aggressively in hopes of landing a championship-winning arm. His ADP in NFBC drafts since March 15 has dipped to 100, down from 71 in February, with a max pick of 178. On Tuesday night, I acquired him for $10 in an auction while trying to price enforce. Although I don’t hate buying him at the same rate as Kyle Hendricks, I underestimated how much everyone has soured on someone who was a hot commodity two weeks ago.

Perhaps this bitter dose of reality presents a buying opportunity. At the very least, tempered expectations mean anyone who wants to invest now won’t have to reach for the shiny new toy. He’s now going at a reasonable cost, so his brutal March has increased the odds of Ohtani landing on my teams. That massive strikeout upside has not expired because of two brief spring starts.

Eric Thames (1B – MIL)
It’s bad enough that Eric Thames is hitting .182/.265/.341 this spring with 16 strikeouts in 49 plate appearances. It doesn’t help that he has toiled against Double-A caliber competition, as graded by Baseball-Reference. Yet the real problem is that Opening Day is less than a week away, and the Brewers still have a lineup logjam.

That hypothetical Domingo Santana for Chris Archer deal never came to fruition, so Milwaukee must find playing time for four high-quality outfielders. The adjustment has not gone smoothly, but Ryan Braun has taken reps at first base to help solve this dilemma. Don’t count on a former MVP with a $19 million salary serving the short end of a platoon with Thames, a 31-year-old who spent four years out of the majors before triumphantly returning last season. While he belted 31 homers with an .877 OPS, he tallied a .796 OPS and 33.3 strikeout percentage after the All-Star break. A 197 consensus ADP does not properly reflect the likelihood of Thames losing playing time, so pass unless he falls a few more rounds.

Other Fallers: Domingo Santana, Blake Parker, Jeff Samardzija, Steven Souza, Reynaldo Lopez, Derek Fisher, A.J. Puk