You don’t have to look too deep in ESPN’s ADP before identifying a bargain. In fact, there’s one within the first 10 players. I cautioned against inflating a player’s ADP too much due to positional scarcity in the Overranked Players to Avoid in ESPN Drafts (Fantasy Baseball) piece, but a standout catcher and a five-category contributor at shortstop appear in this piece among the underranked players in ESPN ADP. I chose to dig a little deeper for underranked pitchers.
Charlie Blackmon (COL – OF): 10
Among qualified hitters since 2016, Blackmon ranks first in runs (248), tied for 14th in homers (66), and was 24th in RBIs (186. He was also tied for 22nd in stolen bases (31), fourth in batting average (.327), and 13th in plate appearances (1,366), according to FanGraphs. I point out Blackmon’s plate appearance total because it amplifies his batting average impact.
He’s a true across-the-board contributor, and he’s treated to the same dreamy home ballpark factors as fellow first-round pick Nolan Arenado. While Arenado has held an edge in homers and RBIs the last two seasons combined, Blackmon has bested him in the other standard scoring categories.
Furthermore, third base is suddenly a deep position, so a position scarcity argument favoring Arenado doesn’t hold as much water as in previous seasons. Arenado’s ESPN ADP is pick three, but that’s actually where I’d slot in Blackmon, Colorado’s stud outfielder checks in behind only Mike Trout and Jose Altuve, in my opinion.
Gary Sanchez (NYY – C): 29
Sanchez is hands down the top option at catcher, but his offensive production would play at any position, and it especially stands out at his offensively devoid defensive home. The Yankees backstop captured the attention of baseball fans in 2016 when he ripped 20 homers with a .299/.376/.657 slash in only 229 plate appearances. His homer pace was unsustainable, but he still ripped an impressive 33 homers in 525 plate appearances last year, and he hit a solid .278 (his .345 OBP in 2017 also plays well in leagues that use OBP).
How impressive is Sanchez’s homer output since 2016? His 53 homers are tied for the 43rd most with Bryce Harper (1,119 plate appearances), Miguel Sano (978 plate appearances), and Hanley Ramirez (1,173 plate appearances), and he has only 754 plate appearances during that time frame! He’s also tallied a .284 batting average (six points higher than Harper’s, to put things in perspective), and his run-production totals (113 runs and 132 RBIs) are strong, too.
The slugging catcher’s 12.5% SwStr% last year was an improvement over his 13.0% SwStr% in 2016, but it’s worse than league average (10.4% in 2017), and it could lead to a few more punch outs and lower average than he’s posted to date. Of course, it’s also possible he continues to improve making contact to help fend off strikeout rate and batting average regression.
Even if you believe he’s more of a true-talent .260-.270 hitter, his power, run-production numbers (79 runs and 90 RBIs last year), and dominance relative to his catching peers makes him a near top-20 option. I have him ranked 21st overall, and eight slots in the first three rounds of drafts is a sizable gap, hence Sanchez’s inclusion in this piece.
Elvis Andrus (TEX – SS): 60
Prior to 2017, Andrus single-season high for homers was eight in 2016. Last year, he popped 20 long balls. The veteran shortstop set a new high with a 30.5% Hard%, but he still chopped 48.5% of his balls in play into the ground while lifting balls to the tune of just a 31.5% FB% (second highest of his career, though).
More hard hit balls coupled with MLB’s new baseball resulted in the perfect storm for Andrus’ 20 homer-campaign. I’m not expecting a repeat, but reaching the teens seems plausible for a guy who’s in his man-strength years at 29-year-old.
The rest of Andrus’ profile is quite good, too. He hit .302 in 2016 and .297 last year, and he’s stolen 24 bases or more in five straight seasons. He also set new highs last year in runs (100) and RBIs (88). Andrus totaled 371 plate appearances hitting second and 235 hitting third.
The Rangers haven’t made any major offensive splashes in the offseason, so Andrus should continue to receive the bulk of his plate appearances in run-production friendly spots in the lineup. Toss in hitter-friendly park factors for right-handed batters at Globe Life Park in Arlington, and he looks like an easy top-50 pick who plays one of fantasy baseball’s more scarce positions. In fact, I have him in the top 40 as the 37th ranked player overall.
Wil Myers (SD – 1B): 63
How many players have hit at least 55 homers and stolen at least 45 bases since 2016? According to Baseball-Reference’s play index, just four players. Those four players are Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt, and Myers. Suffice to say, his power and speed combo is in elite company. Myers’ .251 batting average during that two-year stretch is more than 40 points short of the next closest player in the quartet, so he obviously isn’t in the same tier.
Still, it’s great company to keep. The Padres were the lowest scoring offense in MLB last year with just 604 runs, but Myers still managed to total 80 runs and 74 RBIs. In 2016 when the Padres ranked a little more respectably as they were tied for 20th in runs with 686, Myers rattled off 99 runs and 94 RBIs. If San Diego’s youngsters can take a step forward and off-season acquisitions such as Eric Hosmer can provide them a lift out of the basement in run scoring, Myers could once again push 180-plus runs plus RBIs in 2018.
He’s had his run-production numbers (80 runs and 74 RBIs) held back by his MLB-worst offense and suffering from a pinch of bad luck on batted balls (.243 average and .297 BABIP compared to a .248 xAVG and .302 xBABIP, according to xStats.org). However, Myers still ranked 100th on ESPN’s player rater last year.
The power/speed combo and Myers’ heart-of-the-order spot in the lineup gives him a high floor. He’ll also have the added benefit of picking up outfield eligibility this year. Add it all up, and he’s a top-50 player who’s not cracking the top 60 in ADP in ESPN leagues.
Christian Yelich (MIL – OF): 44
Zack Godley (ARI – SP): 136
Charlie Morton (HOU – SP): 200
I previously wrote about players to reach for, and out of those players, these three lead the way as the most egregiously underranked in ESPN leagues. I won’t rehash why I like them here, but you can read why I’m so enamored with them in 2018 here.
Garrett Richards (LAA – SP): 175
The knock on Richards isn’t his talent; it’s his ability — or, rather, inability — to stay healthy. He’s totaled just 62.1 innings in 12 starts over the last two years combined. In those dozen starts, he’s compiled a 2.31 ERA (2.93 FIP, 3.65 xFIP, and 3.95 SIERA), 1.14 WHIP, 8.6% BB%, 23.9% K%, 49.4% GB%, and 11.8% SwStr%.
The righty’s skills are top shelf, and at a certain point in drafts, they become worth rolling the dice on despite the obvious health concerns. For me, that’s just inside the top 150 as player 148th overall in my rankings. Thus far this spring, Richards has totaled 12.2 innings in four Spring Training starts, so he’s healthy currently.
Personally, I’m more apt to grab high floor players early and take chances on ceiling in the middle rounds. For gamers who are more apt to take chances early, Richards isn’t a must-have player even at his ESPN ADP.
Michael Clevinger (CLE – SP/RP): 260
Even a cursory glance at Clevinger’s ADP at ESPN relative to other sites makes him a no-doubt candidate for this piece. He has an average ADP of 210.7 across six sites, and his 260 ADP in ESPN leagues is 49 spots lower than his next lowest ADP across the industry. The righty made 27 appearances (21 starts) totaling 121.2 innings for Cleveland last year, and he spun a 3.11 ERA (3.85 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, and 4.24 SIERA as well as a 3.88 DRA, per Baseball Prospectus), 12.0% BB%, 27.3% K%, and 1.25 WHIP.
The righty’s control was well below average, but he made up for it with a gaudy strikeout rate that’s supported by a 12.5% SwStr% that was tied for the 13th highest among pitchers who pitched a minimum of 120 innings last season. Clevinger has three legitimate put-away pitches. According to FanGraphs, his changeup had a 19.0% SwStr%, curve had a 20.7% SwStr%, and slider led the way with a 23.4% SwStr% in 2017.
The righty’s fastball was a bad offering allowing a 139 wRC+, but his secondary offerings were all outstanding. Clevinger cut his fastball usage down from 58.6% in 2016 to just 53.3% last year, and the results speak for themselves. At Clevinger’s current cost, it’s all upside with zero risk.
Overranked Players to Avoid in ESPN Drafts (Fantasy Baseball)
2018 Draft Kit: View printable cheat sheets, sleepers & mistakes to avoid 
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
