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Way Too Early Fantasy Football Mock Dynasty Startup (PPR Scoring)

Way Too Early Fantasy Football Mock Dynasty Startup (PPR Scoring)

I know what you’re thinking. Why? Why bother with a mock draft in February? We still have free agency, the draft, OTAs, training camp, and the preseason. So much can and will change. Why mock draft now? I counter with this: why not? I love fantasy football. You love fantasy football. So let’s have a little fun with way too early projections. It certainly can’t hurt.

I’ve decided to do this draft from the No. 6 spot. Right smack in the middle. While running backs are going to dominate in redraft, wide receivers are better long-term investments so it will be interesting to see how this plays out in 2018 dynasty startups. Just don’t hold me to any positions I have on players. It’s still only March.

This is a PPR 15-round mock for dynasty startups. The starting roster is: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, DEF, K. Many dynasty leagues have deeper benches, but for the purposes of mocks done in February/March, it is a bit premature to delve into the late late round dart throws before free agency and the NFL Draft.

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1.6 Todd Gurley (RB – LAR)
Even though I would have much rather gone WR here, I am comfortable with selecting Todd Gurley as the anchor of my team. Although he plays RB, Gurley is still just 23 years old and is on a young team with an innovative offense-minded head coach that is constantly improving. Even if he does not have longevity, Gurley should, at the very least, be an elite performer for the next 3-4 years. My general rule of thumb in any sort of keeper/dynasty format is I look at this year and next year, no further. If you want to test my approach, go take a look at ADPs from 2015 and 2016.

2.7 Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
As much as I like some of the RBs available for 2018, I must consider the future even if the future is nothing more than taking 2019 into account. I am all in on Tyreek Hill. I was last year. The only thing that’s changed is now I’m not the guy arguing with everyone trying to convince them that Hill is the real deal. They believe me now. Hill was a mid WR1 in 2017 and now is paired with a younger QB with a bigger arm and one more willing to take shots deep. He is here to stay and should have a long and prosperous career tethered to Pat Mahomes.

3.6 Allen Robinson (WR – JAX)
I was enamored to see Allen Robinson available this late. Lest we forget what he did in 2015 and how highly he was drafted in 2016. ARob’s talents haven’t gone anywhere. His value has been suppressed by a torn ACL and Blake Bortles. When I did this mock, Bortles had not yet been granted an extension. Even so, I still think it’s more likely than not that someone else is playing QB for the Jaguars in 2019. So we suffer through one more year with Bortles and then hopefully that’s it. Either that, or Robinson is on another team. Robinson does not like Bortles and is well aware that Bortles is not even one of the 50 best QBs in the NFL right now. Even so, we’ve seen Robinson perform with Bortles so this is a pick that could pay immediate dividends and also have long-term benefits. Robinson will be an elite WR once again. If it happens this year, then this pick looks even better.

4.7 Carlos Hyde (RB – SF)
I’ve always been a believer in Carlos Hyde. He’s just perennially underrated. At age 26, he should still have plenty of gas left in the tank. While currently in San Francisco, it’s a near certainty he will be elsewhere this season. I fully expect him to end up with a feature role. He may not be as prolific a pass catcher as he was last season, but he’s at least proven capable. Even if Hyde only has two years left of high level production, he’s worth this pick.

5.6 Russell Wilson (QB – SEA)
What? A quarterback? In the fifth round? Why? Russell Wilson‘s ceiling is legitimately the greatest fantasy QB of all time. No, I am not predicting that is where he will end up. But the mere fact that it’s within his range of outcomes makes the 29-year-old Wilson worth this pick. There’s no reason to doubt Wilson remaining an elite QB for the next five or six years. As long as Wilson is good, he will be on my team. Seattle may want to run the ball, but they still don’t have a running back or an offensive line. This offense lives and dies with Wilson.

6.7 Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG)
Time to load up on WRs! Sterling Shepard is young and has displayed WR1 upside. Yes he has Odell Beckham to deal with, but even with the ghost of Eli Manning, the Giants should be good enough on offense to keep Shepard fed. And, of course, Manning only has a year or two left. Hopefully, the Giants do right by their young WRs and get them a franchise QB over the next two years.

7.6 Duke Johnson (RB – CLE)
Isaiah Crowell is a free agent and Duke Johnson is coming off a breakout season. At just 24 years old, I will happily add him to my bench. Even if the Browns draft a running back, as long as it’s not Saquon Barkley, Johnson should retain PPR value with the upside for more. While I do think 2017 was probably his ceiling, there’s no reason he can’t be a viable RB2/Flex play for the next few seasons.

8.7 Jamison Crowder (WR – WAS)
Alex Smith + slot receiver = winning. I expect Alex Smith to be the Redskins’ starting QB for at least the next three seasons. Smith is still a checkdown artist. Smith’s deep ball proficiency in 2017 had a lot more to do with Tyreek Hill than with Smith himself. Smith is still a good QB, but Washington doesn’t have a receiver anywhere near the talent of Hill. I expect a lot of Jamison Crowder.

9.6 Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI)
Tarik Cohen was severely underutilized in his rookie season. He was effective whenever he was on the field, but John Fox (aka Jeff Fisher 2.0) hasn’t a modicum of a clue of how to run an offense. Mercifully for Bears fans, Fox is gone and replacing him is a younger, more offensive-minded coach in Matt Nagy. I don’t know how good Nagy is, but I can say definitively that he can’t be worse than Fox. Cohen is a satellite back plus. He is a handcuff to Jordan Howard that also has standalone value because Howard couldn’t catch a lobbed nerf ball with stickum on his gloves. Cohen will be 23 this season and his arrow is pointing firmly upward.

10.7 Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI)
Seriously? The tenth round? Larry Fitzgerald was a WR1 last season. I know 2018 is probably going to be his last year, but it’s not like I’m not trying to win this year. Fitz always keeps himself in tip top physical condition. He is going to be at least a mid-high WR2 this season. I’ll find someone to replace him with in 2019. Give me Fitz all day in this spot.

11.6 D’Onta Foreman (RB – HOU)
The Texans may very well target an RB in the middle rounds of the draft, but regardless, D’Onta Foreman should enter the season as the starter. I expect Lamar Miller to be cut. If not, he will play second fiddle to Foreman as Foreman is the better player. I’ll gladly take a second-year starter in round 11.

12.7 Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF)
I know I already have Russell Wilson, but I don’t care. Jimmy Garoppolo is the real deal. I am all in. I think he will be a consensus top five real life QB by the end of this season and possibly fantasy as well. Jimmy G’s weapons will only improve this season, and he will only improve as this will be his first offseason where he knows he is a starter. His knowledge of the playbook will improve. His rapport with his teammates will improve. He will naturally improve with experience. I can leverage him or Wilson for value later.

13.6 Trey Burton (TE – ??)
I am not even listing a team for Trey Burton because it won’t be Philly. He already declined an extension from them because he wants to start somewhere – and he should. Burton was an elite TE1 whenever he filled in for Zach Ertz last season. Burton has showcased high-level ability, and I am taking him assuming he will be signed to start wherever he ends up.

14.7 Justin Tucker (K – BAL)
The best kicker in football history is more valuable than whatever defense I will end up streaming.

15.6 Defense
I have no idea who this will be yet, but it will be a team with an easy Week 1 matchup.

Final Roster

QB: Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo
RB: Todd Gurley, Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson, Tarik Cohen,  D’Onta Foreman
WR: Tyreek Hill, Allen Robinson, Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder, Larry Fitzgerald
TE: Trey Burton
K: Justin Tucker
DEF: TBD

Way Too Early Fantasy Football Mock Draft (PPR Scoring)
Way Too Early Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Standard Scoring)


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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.

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