Form your alliances and start planning your attack, as today’s topic is RISK. Okay, not the board game, but rather the “big board” game: the NFL Draft. After going through the safest picks yesterday, the next task is transitioning into evaluating risk.
However, before we go any further, it’s important to note that risk is not a rejection of value or talent. It’s merely an observation of how the variance of the outcome may be creeping past the value-threshold given to the prospect at this point in time. That being said, these prospects could be deciding factors to the tenure and reputations of the GM or coach of their future team. Let’s dive in with the riskiest prospects in this year’s draft.
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Josh Allen (QB – Wyoming)
The quarterbacks in this year’s draft all have question marks surrounding them, but perhaps none more than those around Allen. Coming from a small school and struggling with accuracy against sub-par competition, the critiques of his game are warranted.
On one hand, he’s drawn comparisons to that of Ben Roethlisberger, in terms of size and talent. However, his passer rating when facing pressure, in 2017, was 73.4 (compared to an NCAA average of 90.8). Allen is the definition of a boom-or-bust candidate at QB, and his landing spot will significantly impact his development. If he’s allowed time to adjust to NFL speed and learn the offense, his window of success should open wider, but looking at the QB-needy teams looking to draft in the top five, he may not be afforded that luxury.
Courtland Sutton (WR – SMU)
2018 is one of the weakest WR classes coming into the draft in recent history. This comes at a strange time too because the NFL is undergoing a concept-shift on the matter of what a “number one WR” is (and if your WR1 can be your slot receiver). Courtland Sutton, has the frame (and the ability to use it) of a prototypical WR1, so that will be appealing to certain organizations.
He needs coached up, though. His ability, at this point in time, to get separation has been lackluster and is cause for concern at the next level if he does not become a better route-runner.
That being said, Sutton’s upside is there and it’s the reason why he’s getting serious looks from the Bears, Cowboys, Eagles, and others. He’ll likely hear his name called early in Round Two (or even late in Round One) and that price puts him in a high-cost area that elevates his risk but someone will roll the dice with an opportunity for his high ceiling.
Arden Key (EDGE – LSU)
Some of the riskiest players are those with off-the-field concerns. Look no further than the offseason news surrounding the 49ers 31st overall draft pick from 2017, Reuben Foster. Not to say Key’s off-the-field issues are anywhere near the same category of concern, but anytime you take time off from football, you give teams pause before spending early round picks on your talents. The positional value of a pure pass-rusher will float him onto the radars of any team looking for that skill. However, there are legitimate concerns (despite his solid production during his college career) on how he will translate into the NFL.
Tremaine Edmunds (LB – Virginia Tech)
This is a moment to remember the words in the intro — Edmunds has excellent measurables and is a monster for whichever team that drafts him. However, his draft stock has soared in the past few months to a point where many believe he will be a top ten pick. This seems like it could be similar to what teams have done to Josh Allen’s stock.
They have focused on the potential rather than the player the prospect was in college/is now. His instincts and football IQ do not appear to be at the same level of Roquan Smith, who he could potentially supersede on draft night. You can trace it back many years; getting too caught up in athleticism and potential has caused more than a few busts.
Orlando Brown (T – Oklahoma)
The biggest shock at the combine was just how poorly Brown tested. His 5.85 40-yard dash (the fifth slowest since 2003) caused his draft stock to plummet in an already poor draft class for offensive tackles. His performance at the combine didn’t measure up, but he did get an opportunity to climb up the draft board a bit with his pro day.
He dropped five pounds and put in a 5.63 40-time. He’s not lighting the world on fire, but he’s showing that he’s willing to work and improve, so the “want-to” seems to be there. Despite the improvements, it’s hard not to toss Brown into this category of risky draft picks. Before the combine, Brown appeared to be in contention to be a first-round pick and before his pro day he was projected as a 5th rounder. That kind of variance doesn’t bode well, even with his stock trending upwards.
With the draft less than a week away, the landing spots for these players will soon be known. Pay special attention to their development progresses as these players hope to maximize their potential to be the boom as opposed to the bust.
Check out our consensus mock NFL Draft
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Ethan Sauers is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Ethan, check out his archive and follow him @ethansauers.
