After months of all-star games, the combine, pro days, private workouts, and rumors, the NFL Draft is finally here. With all the recent news, here are six key storylines to watch over the next three days.
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How will Josh Rosen be valued?
Josh Rosen has been a high-level prospect dating back to high school. His college production was good, but not great, and his pre-draft process has been uneven. Criticisms by his college coach, Jim Mora Jr., were an unfortunate part of the process. Rosen has been on the media circuit in the week before the draft with some enlightening commentary. Rosen has been transparent about who he is and strongly defended himself against other more “exotic” players.
Some of Rosen’s criticisms have been his own fault. The hot tub was not a wise idea. But Rosen has been the subject of some unfair criticisms as well. The criticisms about his need to know “why”, the need to keep him interested, his interest in things outside of football, and his lack of commitment all scream of socioeconomic stereotyping about an affluent west coast player with a Jewish heritage. If Rosen is healthy, he is the safest on-field quarterback in the draft. If Rosen falls past Denver in the draft, he will become a prime storyline on draft night.
Who is in the quarterback game?
There has been plenty of speculation about replacements for the old guard. The Patriots, Giants, Chargers, Steelers, and Saints have all been linked to a possible heir apparent to their aging quarterbacks. If the Giants or Broncos select or the others trade up for a big five quarterback, they will shift the quarterback valuation. This may become even more significant in Superflex dynasty leagues where the selection may not start for a year or two. Impatient owners may be concerned about the wait, which may create a value opportunity in rookie drafts.
Where are the trades?
The trade market this offseason has been as busy as any in recent memory. With Cleveland, Indianapolis and San Francisco showing a willingness to deal in the past year, there figures to be a market for teams looking to trade up. Miami, Buffalo, Arizona, and Baltimore are all in the teens with varying degrees of quarterback needs. They all sit outside the comfort area for quarterbacks to fall and are candidates to trade up. Add in the Patriots who have picks 23 and 31, and there are plenty of possible trade up candidates. These trades could alter the quarterback market in dynasty leagues.
What is the value of running backs?
This is a potentially historic running back class. After a great class in 2017, running backs from these two drafts will dominate the top 15 of running back rankings for the foreseeable future. With plenty of quality running back options in the league, running backs may fall in the draft because of a lack of demand.
Last year there Leonard Fourneette was selected fourth and Christian McCaffery was selected eighth. This year, Saquon Barkley should be a top 10 pick, but it is unlikely another running back will be drafted near the range. There are running backs reportedly in consideration for round one picks in Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb, and Sony Michel, but all figure to be late round first round options at best. Running backs are likely to dominate day two. Kerryon Johnson, Ronald Jones II, Royce Freeman and Rashaad Penny are all popular names who are likely day two picks. Draft position is important at the position but can be overshadowed by landing spot. Draft position and landing spot can lead to significant value changes over the next three days.
Where will receivers land in a down class?
Last year surprised with Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross all selected in the top 10 picks. This year there are no locks for the top 10, and only Calvin Ridley is consistently mocked in the first round. There will likely be other receivers in the first round, with betting markets setting the over-under line at 2.5 in the first round. D.J. Moore, Courtland Sutton, and Christian Kirk are other quality options that could crash the round one party. Day two has some potential players, but they need to be a strong combination of college production, athleticism, and landing spot to warrant top 24 dynasty rookie pick valuation. Day two receivers hit less than 20% of the time, so selectivity in the range is paramount.
Who are the injury or off-field fallers?
Sony Michel, Derrius Guice, and Nick Chubb all have injury histories that have created questions about their draft stocks. Michel and Guice are the most likely round one picks, while Chubb is a day two projection. If any fall significantly in the draft, injuries will be a key factor. Likewise, Antonio Callaway reportedly failed a drug test at the combine. A day two talent on the field, Callaway was suspended for the 2017 season because of a credit card theft scheme, was previously arrested for marihuana possession, and the subject of a sexual assault allegation. He may fall late into day three or undrafted, similar to Ishmael Zamora in 2017.
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Jordan McNamara is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him @McNamaraDynasty.
