Although the miserable April weather for many of us says otherwise, we’re already three weeks into the 2018 MLB season. Stats continue to be a little wacky, but player expectations are beginning to take shape as the sample sizes grow. As a reminder, the rates for strikeouts, walks, ground balls, and fly balls are among the numbers that stabilize the most quickly in a given year. These numbers and other trends can help shed light on which early-season surprises will maintain their success.

One such surprise is Gerrit Cole, who didn’t rack up gaudy strikeout numbers last night, but still pitched seven strong innings against the Seattle Mariners, allowing just one unearned run with five punchouts. After four starts, Cole now holds a minuscule 0.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, along with 41 strikeouts to just six walks over 28 innings. Those latter marks shake out to a stellar 39.8% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate.

So will Cole be able to keep this up? It’s fair to say Cole has gotten a little lucky in the BABIP department (.231), and leaving 100% of his runners on base isn’t going to last either. But the good news is his SIERA still sits at a pristine 1.99, suggesting his ERA isn’t completely out of whack. He’s also demonstrated a 15.3% swinging-strike rate, giving some evidence that the spike in punchouts is real as well. Cole has made a concentrated effort to reduce his fastball usage — a pitch that was largely ineffective last year — in favor of his breaking balls, which further explains this positive development. Will he strike out nearly 40% of batters all year? Of course not, but an improvement over last season’s 23.1% rate sure looks plausible.

In all, even with some expected regression off these video games numbers, it’s safe to be optimistic that Cole 2.0 will more resemble the excellent 2014-15 version than 2017’s disappointment. Let’s check in on some other intriguing names.

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Jameson Taillon has an 0.89 ERA, but it has come with a .160 BABIP

Another pitcher off to a surprise start is Jameson Taillon, who takes the mound against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night. This outing could perhaps be telling because unlike Gerrit Cole, there are some concerns that this April breakout isn’t as sturdy as we would like to think.

First, let’s look at the positives. Taillon owns a 0.89 ERA and 0.69 WHIP, which has come with a strong 24.0% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. His batted ball numbers also hold up, displaying a 58.8% ground-ball rate and 19.6% hard-hit rate allowed. So far, so good.

But things get a little shakier when we dig deeper. Taillon’s SIERA is 3.18, which is hardly a poor mark, but certainly a great deal higher than that tiny ERA. Then there’s the .160 BABIP and 95.6% strand rate — both completely unsustainable marks. If Cole was lucky on batted balls in play, Taillon is practically winning the lottery by comparison.

How about the strikeouts? Taillon shows just a 7.7% swinging-strike rate, which is actually lower than his career average (8.2%), which doesn’t support any boost on that front. He’s also posted just a 53.3% first-pitch strike rate, which is again below his career mark (61.5%).

Cole has exhibited some lucky breaks, but overall we can buy into a lot of his skills, and he’s also shown great success historically. In Taillon’s case, we’re still not sure what the ceiling is after just 258 career innings, but it’s hard not to be skeptical of this hot start. Outside of perhaps the batted-ball numbers, this profile sadly shows regression across the board. We’re still talking about only three starts, so it’s too early to totally write him off, but this next start could be telling if we begin to see a drop in performance.

Franchy Cordero is sporting a 45.6% career hard-hit rate

Season-long deep leaguers went scrambling to the waiver wire when Franchy Cordero got the call last week, and if you’re wondering what the fuss is all about over a 23-year-old with 131 plate appearances, here’s the low-down.

First, the bad news — Cordero strikes out. A lot. He’s struck out 42.7% of the time as a major leaguer, and it’s come with just a 5.3% walk rate. Last season in Triple-A he struck out at a 28.2 % clip. His plate discipline could… use a little work.

But the good news is his tantalizing power and speed potential. Since his major league debut in 2017, Cordero owns a 45.6% hard-hit rate, which has helped lead to a respectable .195 ISO. That’s pretty good, but if we also look at his Statcast data from last year, we find that on balls hit in the air (fly balls and line drives), Cordero ranked just outside the top 10 in average exit velocity among those with at least 40 batted-ball events. A quick look at that list and you’ll find him surrounded by a who’s who of power hitters, so it’s no small feat.

As for the speed, if we again look at 2017’s Statcast numbers, we also find him near the top of the leaderboard in sprint speed, clocking in at seventh overall. Once again, a look at that list shows some pretty familiar speedsters at the top.

What can we expect from Cordero in 2018? Playing time isn’t assured, as things could get crowded once Wil Myers and Manny Margot are back in action. Still, it’s hard not to be excited by the talent, and if he can just get the whiffs down a bit, he could become a fun fantasy baseball asset. Through just 32 plate appearances he already has two dingers and two stolen bases, along with a .192 average — a fine representation of both the good and the bad. Let’s hope he gets the chance to keep playing regularly to see where he can go from here.

Hanley Ramirez owns a .394 wOBA so far this season

Most of us, including yours truly, glossed over Hanley Ramirez this offseason, assuming 2017 showed the beginning of the end. Mitch Moreland was back in town, and J.D. Martinez eventually followed, so it was fair to wonder how many at-bats Ramirez would ultimately receive. Throw in a vesting 2019 contract option that would kick in after 497 plate appearances, and one couldn’t help but wonder if the Red Sox might eventually find a way for him to ride the pine.

Well, so much for all of that! Ramirez is healthy, rejuvenated, and most importantly, playing. It’s hard to argue with the results so far, as he’s slashing .322/.369/.542 with 12 runs, three home runs, and 15 RBIs already. A .356 BABIP indicates the average should eventually dip, but his hard-hit rate is up (39.6%) and strikeout rate is down (18.5%), not to mention he’s hitting in an absurdly red-hot Red Sox lineup.

And as an added wrinkle, Ramirez also surprisingly has three stolen bases, which is already more than the single base he stole in 2017. He’s reportedly stated he wants to go 30-30 this year, and while that’s an obvious long shot — his last four seasons combined add up to 30 stolen bases — and he’s probably kidding around anyway, any sort of contribution on the base paths will only increase his value.

Between his age (34) and past injuries, maybe this storybook start doesn’t last, but given his 276 ADP in March, if you invested, you’re basically playing with house money at this point. Enjoy the ride, however long it lasts.

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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.