DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Monday (4/16)
Yesterday was a crazy day for weather with a half dozen PPD games. Monday certainly has weather concerns as well, so be careful and be ready to late swap tonight. A ten-game main slate is on tap so I’ll avoid the chief meteorologist role and rather play the role of the penny pincher, combing through some value plays to help open up some savings for you. We’re going to need it as secondary pitching options aren’t attractive, leading to a roster construction where going top heavy at SP1 is best. I highly suggest starting with Aaron Nola (PHI) $10,400 or Jacob deGrom (NYM) $11,500 and move on. Now…
Jaime Garcia (TOR): $7,100 vs. KC
Garcia (-206) is taking on an offense that is just plain bad and as a result, he’s heavily favored, even more so than the two aforementioned aces above. We’re far enough into the season to declare that streaming most pitchers against the Royals is a safe move. If you played Garrett Richards on Saturday, you were happy with those DK points. Enter Garcia, he’s always been consistent (when healthy) and he’ll be good enough to pay off his salary for a third consecutive game, especially now at his lowest price of the young season in a cake matchup. He’s in play in all formats.
Blake Snell (TAM): $7,800 vs. TEX
Russell Martin (TOR): $3,200 vs. KC
I really like the Jays today. Again, they are heavy favorites and since the time I started writing this until I finished, their implied run total has climbed nearly a full run. The entire Toronto lineup has cheap options to help you save money today. Martin has been stroking the ball lately with some excellent hard hit data and has platoon splits in favor of lefties. He’s cheap enough for me to play in a Jays stack or even in cash games.
Wilson Ramos (TAM): $2,800 vs TEX
Matt Olson (OAK): $4,000 vs. CHW
Olson has the power upside that I like when building team stacks. In fact, there are a lot of A’s players that you could say that about today and you’ll notice a few more Oakland guys below. Olson is someone who interests me a great deal today based solely on power alone. If you don’t want to spend as much, you can get Joey Gallo (TEX) for $200 less and also have similar big fly potential, but I like Olson with another A’s bat in my lineups tonight.
Marwin Gonzalez (HOU): $3,300 @ SEA (also OF eligible)
Ozzie Albies (ATL): $4,000 vs. PHI
I hate giving you two $4k guys right off the rip, but Albies is on fire to start 2018, ranking in the top 5 in every major statistical category for MLB second basemen. Although he’s tied with D.J. LeMahieu for most HRs by a 2B, (5) his OPS is a full 100 points higher than the 2016 batting champion and costs $300 less. He’s absolutely raking, get him in your lineup before he’s priced in the $5k range and you’re wishing you’d played him sooner.
Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM): $3,500 vs. WAS
Travis Shaw (MIL): $3,400 vs. CIN
Based on his production, power upside and price point, Shaw should be on your radar today at a discount. The roof will be closed in Miller Park, so his splits-indifferent power is in play. He’s always hit RHP better and carries a career .347 wOBA and 113 wRC+. Shaw is likely to hit cleanup, but there are a lot of guys who are questionable to be in the lineup today, so he could move up in the order. Keep an eye on the lineups when they come out.
Adrian Beltre (TEX): $3,100 / Isian Kiner-Felefa (TEX) $2,400: @ TAM (also 2B eligible)
Marcus Semien (OAK): $3,000 vs. CHW
Even thought Reynaldo Lopez is off to a nice start so far in 2018, the A’s are still favorites to win at home. To me, that’s very telling and I like a lot of the prices on them. Semien is also off to a nice start and should be a big part of the offense as all of his batted ball data is showing that his power is back. He’s dirt cheap too, making him fully in play in all formats. DraftKings refuses to raise his price, so take advantage until they do.
Aledmys Diaz (TOR): $3,100 vs. KC
More Blue Jays love here as the price is excellent for the pair of OF that will run you just $5,700 and should be hitting 1-2 in Toronto’s lineup. The Jays are projected to score 5.5 runs tonight, so that’s a fair indicator that the potential for an offensive outburst is there against LHP Eric Skoglund. Skoglund’s repertoire doesn’t include a slider, which is the main weakness of the Jays lineup these days.
Hernandez showed some nice power last year with 8 HRs in a limited opportunity late in the season, he’s more than capable of doing damage. I do think he’ll be somewhat chalky at this price, but it’s warranted simply do to the matchup and his spot in the order.
Pearce is a career lefty masher and makes for a fantastic value given the platoon splits, his spot in the order and the fact that he’s already gone deep off a couple southpaws this season. His batted ball data is looking excellent as well, so I really like Pearce on this slate.
Tommy Pham (STL): $3,500 @ CHC
Spare statistical analysis and instead relate to Pham’s early 2018 success on a personal level. Beside looking like he’s locked in during every game recently, Pham’s eyesight has improved. I can’t begin to tell you what a world of difference seeing clearly makes, especially for hitting baseballs. Pham gets his eyes checked before every plate appearance due to his condition, but his heat check shows he’s hot right now with a bunch of multi-hit games last week. Ride the hot hand as he’s shown he’s not a fluke since the beginning of last season.
Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.