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DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Monday (4/9)

DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Monday (4/9)

Monday Night brings us a juicy ten-game main slate on DraftKings with some high-profile, heavily-favored aces on the mound. April 9th is National Name Yourself Day. While I’m not entirely certain what that means, we’ll name ourselves some value plays here who should be able to create enough cap space to get that elite SP1 you need to lead your lineup into the cash. Weather doesn’t appear to be an issue so let’s go!

Note: My referencing of batted ball data for today’s article is a 40% or higher flyball rate and/or hard hit rate and up-ticks in batted ball distance and exit velocity. Batted ball data is one of the best things to look at early in the season as it’s easy to see spikes in players outperforming their typical marks. If you’ve been following this article, you were rewarded with some cheap home runs this weekend as a result.

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Pitcher

Jon Gray (COL): $7,900 vs. SD

Yes, I’m recommending a pitcher in Coors. Gray (-177) has flourished at times, especially against San Diego. He’s mowed through Padres’ bats like a boss only giving up one solitary run in his last 3 outings, including seven scoreless innings just five days ago in Petco. He cost $8,500 last week and gets a price cut do to being at home. That being said, I’d be surprised if he garners much ownership. Gray also gets increased K upside as the Padres struck out over 25% of the time a season ago and they still like to swing and miss and he possesses swing and miss stuff.

Other Notables

Catcher

Kevin Plawecki (NYM): $2,700 @ MIA

Plawecki isn’t the sexiest name on the board, but spending down on C is probably the way to, especially if you’re looking for a path to his battery-mate. He’s looked good so far this year, making a lot of hard contact and he draws a hitter-friendly umpire at Marlins Park. Include him on any Mets stack, but his real appeal is he’s just $2,700.

Other Notables

First Base

Eric Thames (MIL): $3,600 @ STL

Now that Christian Yelich is out for a while, Thames is getting more run and quietly been clobbering the ball. His batted ball data is excellent, posting hard hit and flyball rates north of 40%, resulting in him driving the ball. He could be heating up, not quite like last April when he exploded, but even when he came back down to earth, he still murdered RHPs the entire year.

Other Notables

Second Base

Joe Panik (SF): $3,200 vs. ARI

Until now, Panik has never hit for much power. While most would excuse the sudden pop to small sample size and variance, it should be noted that he’s joined the flyball revolution and changed his approach to hit for more power. So far, it’s worked. Panik went deep again this past weekend and is on pace to shatter his career HR mark. While two of his long balls came against southpaws, he does most of his damage against righties.

Other Notables

Third Base

Danny Valencia (BAL): $2,900 vs. TOR

Valencia has been a platoon lefty-masher (.371 wOBA vs LHP) throughout his career and draws LHP J.A. Happ tonight. He just went deep on Sunday so he’s got the big fly working lately. For under $3,000, he’s very likely to pay off his salary. There’s also a good chance he could slot in fifth, just behind the O’s top 4, so he should be able to get improved RBI opportunities as well.

Other Notables

Shortstop

I’m going to give you a trio of guys:

Aledmys Diaz (TOR): $3,000 @ BAL – He’s the cheapest, but he’s probably batting ninth again. At least he’s on the road.

Nick Ahmed (ARI): $3,400 @ SF –  I love the idea of picking on Derek Holland, but the ballpark isn’t the best for it.

Paul DeJong (STL): $3,800 vs. MIL – Batting seventh isn’t ideal at home, but he’s still a value at his current price.

Based on 2018 batted ball data, all the SS above are hitting the baseball higher, harder and further than almost most other SS in MLB. What’s really going to make a difference is the $400 price points on a slate like tonight, especially when you may need that extra $400. If you’re strapped for cash, perhaps waiting to fill out SS for last is a good way to round out your squad as all of these guys have been smashing the ball.

Outfield

Cameron Maybin (MIA): $3,000 vs. NYM

Aside from solid batted ball data, a common thread for today’s value plays, Maybin still has elite speed on the base paths. Noah Syndergaard has been notorious for runners being able to steal on him. This is a simple play, almost like a flow-chart: Are you rostering Thor? If yes, stay away from Maybin; if you’re not, you can plug in Maybin as a cheap salary-saver with excellent stolen base upside.

Hunter Renfroe (SD): $3,600 @ COL

I’m probably staying away from Padres, but I just wanted to tell you in case you’re looking for cheap Coors Field exposure, Renfroe is the OF I’d be looking at. He’s the cheapest and also has the most power upside. His batted ball data has been solid to start the year so the added mile-high boost should lend a helping hand as usual.

Marcell Ozuna (STL): $3,700 vs. MIL

There simply aren’t a lot of value bats in the OF on tonight’s slate so it’s a great idea to roster someone like Ozuna, who’s routinely a mid-$4,000 OF. When the price is this low and he has a modest seven-game hit-streak going, it just makes sense. His batted ball data is not slowing down, he’s just been a little unlucky and should bounce back very soon in the power department.

Other Notables

Derek Fisher (HOU): $3,000 @ MIN
Trey Mancini (BAL): $3,200 vs. TOR (also 1B eligible)
Dee Gordon (SEA): $3,800 @ KC

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Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.

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