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DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Saturday (4/21)

DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Saturday (4/21)

Saturday Night’s featured slate on DraftKings has nine games for us complete with a few aces on the mound and some decent secondary pitching options as well. You could realistically get 70 points from pitching tonight if you play it right and run good. The price points are spread out a fair amount, but we’ll need to get frugal on hitters if you’re trying to fit a pair of high-priced arms. Let’s look at the value plays to make it work. Let’s go!

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Pitcher

Yu Darvish (CHC): $7,800 @ COL
This is the price range I’m staying above tonight while gravitating to cheaper bats in early roster construction. The ownership on Darvish will be rather low tonight based on the game being in Denver. However, the Rockies stunk it up against RHP last year and they’re doing it again in 2018 with absolutely abysmal team marks of .263 wOBA and 47 wRC+ against righties. Darvish (-139) also provides a solid, built-in floor for strikeouts and that will help keep the ball out of the mile high air and the enormous outfield in Colorado. In GPPs, he’s a solid play, but if you hate the idea of rostering a pitcher in Coors, look no further than the man below…

Other Notables

Catcher

Robinson Chirinos (TEX): $2,900 vs. SEA
Chirinos has been fairly all-or-nothing at the plate for a while, either going deep or going back to the dugout without rounding the bases first. When he makes contact, it’s going far, quickly. His hard-hit rate, flyball rates, average distance and exit velocity are all spiked at the moment. He’s taken James Paxton yard once before, going 1-for-5. Again, all-or-nothing with him, but if he runs into one, you’ll be happy you have him in your lineup.

Other Notables

First Base

Justin Bour (MIA): $3,100 @ MIL
I almost put Brandon Belt or Joey Gallo here, but they’re both $500 more than we can really afford to spend on this slate. The all-or-nothing analysis above for Chirinos can be applied directly to Gallo. I don’t like stacking Rangers, and I’d only play him in GPPs. Belt is more of a cash game play for his on-base ability, but I don’t like the matchup. Instead, take a chance on Bour. Not because of his matchup, but because of the Brewers bullpen struggles. I’m going bold and saying you’ll get a late-inning HR from Bour off of one of Milwaulkee’s RHP from the pen. Calling my shot.

Other Notables

Second Base

Jed Lowrie (OAK): $3,800 vs. BOS
Lowrie faces Chris Sales, which sucks. However, his price has been deflated from $4,500 just last night, making him a tempting play. Do you know who the AL RBI leader is? Yup, Jed Lowrie. While most of his destruction has come versus RHP this season, he’s been a fairly splits-indifferent hitter throughout his career. Take a look at his current 2018 advanced statistics: .267 ISO/.460 wOBA/197 wRC+. I know, right? Play him if you fade Sale.

Other Notables

Third Base

Adrian Beltre (TEX): $3,3000 vs. SEA
Again, I don’t like stacking Rangers against James Paxton, I’d rather play Paxton for K upside. That said, the price on Beltre is criminal! He’s going to hit cleanup, I guarantee he gets at least one hit, and his recent batted ball data is excellent, even though it’s been well above average since we started keeping track of that sort of thing. Not to mention, for you BvP truthers, he sees and hits Paxton well as a career 9-for-16 (.563) hitter vs. the righty.

Other Notables

Shortstop

Nick Ahmed (ARI): $2,900 vs. SD
Ahmed has always hit southpaws better in his career, especially Clayton Richard. He also has some sharply elevated batted ball data over the last couple weeks, hitting more flyballs harder and farther. That bodes well as the roof is open at Chase Field this evening, and a first-pitch temperature of around 90 degrees is expected. If you’re playing a D-Backs stack, don’t make the mistake of leaving him out of it. He’s also in play for cash games.

Other Notables

Outfield

Mac Williamson (SF): $2,400 @ LAA
Williamson was destroying Triple-A pitchers with six HRs in just 39 ABs before getting the call-up yesterday to replace the injured Hunter Pence. If you’re looking for an affordable power bat, look no further than the return of the Mac. He’s changed his swing and fine-tuned it the last two weeks in the minors. He promptly went deep last night in Anaheim so he’s about as locked in no matter the level of pitching he’s facing. He’s too cheap to fade.

Chris Young (LAA): $2,700 vs. SF
Young is another player to offer strong power upside for the price. He’s a career lefty masher carrying favorable platoon splits with a .360 wOBA and 121 wRC+ against southpaws. His lone bomb of 2018 was against a lefty…nothing has changed. The Angles are the biggest favorite (-195) on the slate. That may change once a line comes out for the Houston @ Chicago game, but for now, the implied 5.5 run total is enough that I’ll have some exposure.

Albert Almora & Jason Heyward (CHC): $3,000 @ COL
A couple of Cubbies for you at the same price point. They just put up 16 runs last night in the first game of this series. If you’re not playing two stud pitchers, be sure to get some exposure to this game today. I like Almora a lot better because of his likelihood to lead off and his recent hard hit data is encouraging in the stadium with the most spacious outfield in MLB. I always like a cheap leadoff hitter on the away team at Coors Field.

Heyward will probably bat just before the pitcher, so there’s a solid chance he gets on base at least once tonight, and he’s not a bad starting point for a Cubs wrap-around stack with the Cubs 1-4 hitters. He’s hitting more flyballs lately, always a welcome sign for a hitter in Coors.

Other Notables

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Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.

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