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DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Tuesday (4/10)

DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Tuesday (4/10)

What an exciting extended first week of the season! The Astros have picked up where they have left off, plus Gerrit Cole looks like a front-runner for the Cy Young. Gabe Kapler has somehow managed not to get fired, and the Pirates are leading the NL Central after an offseason of more questions than answers.

Last Tuesday, we had some nice value plays with Tommy Pham (homer, stolen base), Josh Reddick (two homers, six RBI), and Garrett Richards, (quality start/win/ nine Ks). Hopefully we can keep the momentum going!

DraftKings is offering us an incredible 12-game slate, with many aces taking the hill (deGrom, Strasburg, Sale, Severino, amongst others), and a Coors Field game against the hapless, misfielding Padres. Let’s take a look at who you can find at a good price to stack around the aces and the Coors hitters. As we say in our other value play articles, be sure to pay close attention to the lineups when they are released and monitor the weather leading up to game time. For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.

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Pitcher

Sean Manaea (OAK) – $7,800 @ LAD

In cash games, you are picking an ace and building your team around that pitcher. However, for tournament games, Sean Manaea is a prime pitcher to target. Sean Manaea has had a great start to 2018, compiling a 1.15 ERA and 0.51 WHIP through his first two starts. While Manaea has been a strikeout liability so far in 2018 (6.32 K/9), last year’s K/9 was 7.94, which shows that some positive regression is in store. Combining his quick start is the fact that the Dodgers have historically struggled against lefties, and 2018 is no exception. Per ESPN, Dodgers’ hitters are only hitting .188 against southpaws with 34 Ks in 117 at-bats this. The cherry on top is that most of the Dodgers’ regulars have never faced Manaea, making it an enticing matchup.

Other Notables

Tyler Skaggs (LAA) – $7,400 @ TEX
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) – $6,600 @ WAS

Catcher

Brian McCann (HOU) – $3,400 @ MIN

McCann has incredible splits against probably starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi, going 13-for-28 with three doubles and three homers against him, making for a .964 slugging percentage. Odorizzi had a good first start, but unraveled in his last start against the Pirates, not making it through five innings. While it is likely to be cold in Minny, McCann should stay red-hot against Odorizzi.

Other Notables

Austin Hedges (SDP) – $3,200 @ COL

First Base

Chris Davis (BAL) – $3,000 vs. TOR
Trey Mancini (BAL) – $3,200 vs. TOR

Orioles galore!

While Davis has been struggling so far in 2018, Tuesday’s game provides him with a great opportunity to break out of his early-season funk. Davis is 8-for-21 lifetime against projected starter Aaron Sanchez, which includes four bombs. He’s even walked ten times against him in only 31 plate appearances, which shows that Davis knows Sanchez very well. Davis has bounced around the lineup in the early going, but looks to have settled in as the fifth hitter in the power-happy Orioles lineup. In a hitter’s park against a pitcher that Davis crushes, what’s not to like?

As for Mancini, he has established himself as the table-setter atop the Orioles lineup, and offers a safer floor than Davis, albeit a lower ceiling. Hitting in front of Schoop, Machado, and Adam Jones in their home park does him plenty of favors, and with Sanchez off to a slow start, this makes for a solid play. With outfield eligibility, you can even stack Davis and Mancini in a low-dollar, high-reward play. However, the outfield value players is tremendous, which we’ll get to.

Other Notables

Dan Vogelbach (SEA) – $2,800 @ KC
Kendrys Morales (TOR) – $2,900 @ BAL

Second Base

Jonathan Villar (MIL) – $2,900 @ STL

Villar is now splitting time with Hernan Perez and Eric Sogard at second, but with Villar’s track record against Carlos Martinez, Villar should start and wreak havoc on the Cardinals. Villar is 9-for-26 against Martinez, and always has the potential to steal multiple bases in a game. With so many aces on the mound (including Martinez), Villar is one of the few second baseman that is not a top-tier player with a strong track record against an ace.

Other Notables

Devon Travis (TOR) – $3,100 @ BAL
Whit Merrifield (KC) – $3,300 vs. SEA

Third Base

Kyle Seager (SEA) – $3,200 @ KC
Adrian Beltre (TEX) -$3,200 vs. LAA
Mike Moustakas (KC) – $3,200 vs. SEA

DraftKings must have determined it wanted all veteran third baseman at $3,200 for Tuesday. None of these players have particularly strong track records against the opposition, with Beltre 4-for-14 against Tyler Skaggs as the best track record among them. However, these three have proven their mettle for a long time. Seager is going against Eric Skoglund, who shuttled between Triple-Aand the majors last year. This is the same Eric Skoglund with a 9.50 ERA and 6 BB/9 last year, albeit in just 18 innings. Moustakas is facing Felix Hernandez, who absolutely imploded in his last start and is getting older by the minute (aren’t we all?). Every one of these players is worth a gamble based on what they have proven throughout the years, and the volatility of the starting pitching they are facing.

Other Notables

Eduardo Escobar (MIN) -$3,200 vs. HOU

Escobar has started out strong in 2018, and has proven to be successful in his small sample against probable starter Dallas Keuchel, going 3-for-7 with a homer. In addition, Escobar has roughly the same power and average on both sides of the plate as a switch hitter, so there is no need to worry about splits.

Shortstop

Alcides Escobar (KC) – $3,000 vs. SEA

Look above and below – it’s your favorite game, “Name That Escobar!”

Alcides Escobar is not known for his hitting, but seems to have King Felix’s number, going 7-for-22 against him. If you are stacking Coors hitters or picked an ace and need help at shortstop, Escobar is the perfect punt play.

Other Notables

Dansby Swanson (ATL) – $3,000 vs. WAS
Marcus Semien (OAK) – $3,200 vs. LAD

Outfield

Tommy Pham (STL) – $3,400 vs. MIL
Jose Martinez (STL) – $3,400 vs. MIL
Shin-Soo Choo (TEX) – $3,300 vs. LAA
Hunter Pence (SF) – $2,700 vs. ARI
Nick Markakis (ATL) – $3,000 vs. WAS
Domingo Santana (MIL) – $3,200 vs. MIL

This is where a ton of the value lies – just look at those names, and look at the prices! Here are some quick hitters for each one listed:

  • Pham hit .292 with seven homers against lefties last year in only 96 at-bats. Good thing the Cards are facing lefty Brent Suter.
  • Martinez is off to a great start in 2018, and he hit .407 against lefties with seven homers in only 59 at-bats in 2017 (sounds similar to the bullet point above, huh?)
  • Choo has been on fire to start 2018, hitting three homers last week. He also is 5-for-11 against Skaggs lifetime
  • Pence crushes Patrick Corbin, regardless of how hot Corbin currently is. How does 15-for-33 with four homers sound?
  • Markakis is one Brave who is likely to hit Strasburg: 9-for-28 lifetime, including two doubles and a homer
  • Santana is 7-for-20 against Carlos Martinez, and his splits are close to even against righties or lefties

Pick your favorite three, and enjoy!

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Carmen Maiorano is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.

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