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DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Tuesday (4/24)

DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Tuesday (4/24)

Finally, warmer weather. However, the warmer weather looks like it is going to bring some springtime rain. While Tuesday presents an interesting 11-game slate, a few games have a chance of being postponed or delayed (ATL/CIN, ARI/PHI, TB/ BAL, DET/ PIT), so make sure to check out updated weather forecasts as the games draw near. If you do have questions on how to change your lineups due to inclement weather, feel free to give me a shout on Twitter @cmaiorano3.

There is a game at Coors against a rookie from the Padres in lefty Eric Lauer, and the game is likely to go one of two ways in that he will get absolutely smoked, or he will pitch a gem because nobody has faced him. I’m betting on the former, as the Rockies are hot from their series against the Cubs and had runs stolen out from under them, courtesy of Albert Almora.

It’s going to be important to get some hitters from Coors in cash games, but luckily there are plenty of value plays against gas cans in Jordan Zimmermann, Ty Blach, and Alex Cobb to feast on as well.

As always, be sure to pay close attention to the lineups when they are released and monitor the weather leading up to game time. For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.

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Pitcher

J.A. Happ (TOR): $8,000 vs. BOS
Tanner Roark (WAS): $8,200 @ SF
There are few top-tier pitchers to consider using outside of Charlie Morton, so there are a few value plays to look out for. Overall, this is more about avoiding pitchers with potential delays, rained-out games, or issues (Shohei Ohtani and his blister, Robbie Ray and his rough start, Kenta Maeda and his inconsistency) and determining which starters can provide a similar ceiling for a cheaper price.

J.A. Happ has been attacking hitters more aggressively since the beginning of the season, and it has paid off, notching a 12.68 K/9, which is a four-strikeout increase from 2017. So far in 2018, his fewest number of strikeouts is five, his first outing of the season against the Yankees. He is facing the Red Sox, who have the best offense in baseball. As you know (but worth stating if you live under a rock), the Sox were just no-hit by Sean Manaea, which proves that a great offense can be stopped if it runs into good pitching. (Side note: I tried eating three sliders and fries before writing this article, and settled into a food coma. No idea how Manaea pitched a no-no having that as his pregame meal!) Happ’s remaining peripherals are in line with his historical numbers, so his ERA of 4.50 is likely to come back down, given his 2.95 xFIP. Outside of Eduardo Nunez, the Red Sox do not hit Happ well, providing Happ with a nice ceiling.

Tanner Roark is the safer play in cash formats but has a lower ceiling than Happ. Roark faces the Giants at AT&T Park, a perennial pitcher’s park. Roark is the same pitcher he has always been but is greatly benefiting from a .180 BABIP. The Giants are in the middle of the pack in terms of batting average, and outside of Brandon Belt, nobody is particularly hot. The wind will be blowing out, but Roark does not give up a ton of homers (career average of 10.2%, slightly over the assumed league average of 10%). The hard-hitting Nationals are facing Ty Blach, who almost has a higher BB/9 (4.10) rate than his K/9 (4.44) rate. The Nationals should feast, giving Roark a great chance for a win.

Other Notables

Catcher

Wilson Ramos (TB): $3,000 @ BAL
Catcher is an absolute wasteland right now, and Ramos is hot, hitting a homer with four runs and four RBI over the past week while hitting .412 in the process. He’s also hitting in a great hitter’s park. However, the biggest pro for Ramos is that he is facing a temporary gas can in Alex Cobb, who has struggled mightily out of the gate after being signed late in spring training. It is also his former teammate, so there’s a decent chance that Ramos understands Cobb’s approach and can get an edge on him before he even steps into the batter’s box. However, there is a good chance this game gets delayed or postponed (95% chance of rain), so make sure to check out the other notables below.

Other Notables

First Base

Brandon Belt (SFG): $3,700 vs. WAS
If you do not go with Roark as your starting pitcher, Belt is a great play at first base. Belt has hit a homer in four straight games through Sunday, and as mentioned earlier, the wind will be blowing out, making a great possibility for him to “belt” out another one. He also is 5-for-12 lifetime against Roark with a homer and has also walked three times. The other first basemen are not much more valuable (outside of Paul Goldschmidt), making Belt’s price point right.

Other Notables

Second Base

Carlos Asuaje (SDP): $3,100 @ COL
Asuaje is hot, and he even hit a homer during this write-up! The Padres lineup has been surpassing expectations over the past two weeks, and they are at Coors against a lefty in Kyle Freeland. Asuaje does not have great splits against lefties (hit .230 against them in 2017), but he is certainly worth a flyer in Coors.

Other Notables

Third Base

Colin Moran (PIT): $3,000 vs. DET
It’s no secret that Moran had a nice opening couple weeks of 2018 but has since fallen off a bit, hitting just .206 over the past two weeks with no homers. However, he is facing the over-the-hill Jordan Zimmermann, who allowed three homers in his last outing and has a 7.71 ERA this year. He had a 6.08 ERA in 160 innings last year, so this is not a fluke. Moran should have great opportunities to drive in runs Tuesday, putting some Pirates in play for a contrarian stack in GPP games.

Other Notables

  • Jeimer Candelario (DET): $3,600 @ PIT
  • Adrian Beltre (TEX): $3,400 vs. OAK – he has been featured in this space every time; maybe this is the time he makes it up to us

Shortstop

Marcus Semien (OAK): $3,700 @ TEX
Semien has been on fire in the early going, hitting a couple bombs while driving in 12 runs, not to mention that he has scored 18 times himself. Speaking of over-the-hill, Semien will be teeing off on Cole Hamels, who has a 4.76 ERA and can barely touch 90 with his fastball. Semien has been crushing lefties, hitting to the tune of .344. While the wind will be blowing slightly in, the Ballpark at Arlington is a nice place to hit, especially with Hamels toeing the rubber.

Other Notables

  • Freddy Galvis (SDP): $3,400 @ COL
  • Eduardo Nunez (BOS): $3,800 @ TOR – if you do not go with Happ as a starter, Nunez is a great option

Outfield

Dodgers outfield – Chris Taylor ($3,700), Matt Kemp ($3,600) vs. MIA
Taylor struggled to start 2018 but has gotten hot of late, hitting three homers with nine runs scored and six RBI over the past two weeks. The opposing pitcher for the Marlins, Dillon Peters, has a 6.98 ERA. Taylor should be able to do some damage.

Kemp looks like a new human being so far in 2018, showing great speed and looking refreshed. It also does not hurt that he mashes lefties, hitting .321 lifetime with 73 homers against them.

Corey Dickerson (PIT): $3,600 vs. DET
He is going against the downtrodden Zimmermann, so what else do you need? Well, how about a 7-for-13 clip against him, with a homer and two doubles? I’m fully expecting the Bucs to feast.

Other Notables

My Lineup

P – Z. Wheeler
P – J. Happ
C – W. Ramos – Will pivot to Wieters if game is postponed, which will allow for an upgrade at 2B or SS. Could pivot to Cervelli without 2B/ SS upgrade.
1B – R. Zimmerman
2B – H. Kendrick – if not starting Happ, can upgrade to Eduardo Nunez by swapping Ramos for Wieters
3B – Nolan Arenado
SS – F. Galvis – see 2B note, as Nunez is dual eligible
OF – Ryan Braun – crushes Ian Kennedy
OF – Charlie Blackmon
OF – Khris Davis

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Carmen Maiorano is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.

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