Geoff Lambert breaks down value plays for Friday’s slate of FanDuel NBA contests.
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Point Guard
Tomas Satoransky (WAS) $5,500 vs ATL
John Wall is expected to miss this game due to rest, moving Satoransky back into the starting lineup where he should see 30-plus minutes. Over the last four weeks, the Hawks are the worst team defending the point guard position giving up 54.89 FanDuel points over that span.
Fred VanVleet (TOR) $4,800 vs IND
The Raptors have all but locked up the No. 1 seed. They would have to lose three of their last four and the Celtics would have to win three of their last four, and even then it would come down to tie-breakers. With Kyrie Irving now out for the year, that is not something I see happening, meaning the Raptors could decide to limit Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan (if they aren’t ruled out entirely) leaving VanVleet to pick up extra playing time. The Pacers have defended the PG position well over the last four weeks and present a tough matchup for VanVleet, but his volume should allow him to hit value.
Shooting Guard
Dwyane Wade (MIA) $5,300 @ NYK
If you are into playing narratives, then Wade is the play today. This could be Wade’s last trip to iconic Madison Square Garden. Superstars always love to put on a show in the Garden and Wade is no exception. If this truly is the last game for Wade in the Garden, he will want to go out with a bang. For what it’s worth, over Wade’s career he has averaged 24.8 NBA points and 5.7 rebounds per game against the Knicks. The 24.8 is the third-highest against any team over his career with the 5.7 rebounds being his highest against any team. If we look at it from a purely statistical perspective, before sitting out the game in Atlanta, Wade was averaging over 28 FanDuel points per game over his last five games, which exceeds five-times value at his $5,300 salary.
Small Forward
Stanley Johnson (DET) $5,200 vs DAL
Over his last five games, Johnson has averaged over 30 minutes per game and with the Pistons eliminated from playoff contention I don’t see that number getting reduced. He has three straight games of double-digit NBA points and in two of those had over 35 FanDuel points. The Mavericks are bottom five on the year in rebounds allowed to the small forward position, a place that Johnson can be effective.
Power Forward
Marquese Chriss (PHO) $5,500 vs NO
Chriss has had an up and down season. He has struggled somewhat with foul trouble, but he has shown flashes of what he was capable of as an athletic forward in this up-tempo Suns offense. With all the injuries to the Suns’ big men, Chriss has had to play more minutes down the stretch, and with the Suns a long way from playoff contention they have nothing to lose by giving him a ton of minutes. The Pelicans give up a healthy 47.60 FanDuel points to opposing power forwards. As long as he can stay out of trouble, Chriss should be able to have a good game here.
Center
Greg Monroe (BOS) $5,300 vs CHI
Losing Kyrie Irving was a big blow to this Celtics team that had Eastern Conference Finals, and potentially NBA Finals, on their minds headed into the postseason. With Irving gone, the Celtics are going to have to find offense from other places, and Monroe off the bench is capable of elite level offensive production. He is just a liability on defense. With the Celtics pretty much locked into the two seed in the East, they may experiment with some different lineups which could lead to more floor time for Monroe. The Bulls are bottom five in the league in FanDuel points allowed to opposing centers over the last four weeks, and they are bottom three in rebounds allowed to centers over that same span. Monroe could easily have a double-double off the bench — more than paying off his $5,300 salary.
