FanDuel NBA Value Plays: Wednesday (4/11)
This is the last night of the regular season. This is a massive slate of 12 games, and there is madness all around us.
Other than the top two seeds in each conference, the other 12 playoff spots are still up for grabs. There are a lot of injuries, teams tanking, and teams trying to maneuver for playoff seeding. Tonight could get crazy so make sure to pay attention to the news.
Very few lines are out as of this writing because of all the uncertainty of who is and isn’t playing tonight. As far as salaries go, there are three guys at $12k or above. They all have some motivation, and the case can be made that they are great plays. They also could play just a half or sit out entirely.
Russell Westbrook is at $12,300, LeBron James is priced at $12,100, and Anthony Davis has a $12,000 price tag. Whether you play these high-priced studs, there are still seven stars priced in the $9-11k price range.
If you want to play any of these top-end players tonight, then you’ll need to find some salary relief to fit them into your roster. This is the time of the year when plenty of value tends to open up. The only question is who will that be and when will you know who to play. Sometimes the news comes later in the day as to which players will sit and which bench players will get their chance to shine.
Here are 10 value plays that are worth considering as you set your lineup for tonight’s slate of games. Remember to check the news and injury reports, especially in the 30 minutes before lineups lock. Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and have fun!
Ish Smith (DET): $4,500 at CHI
I absolutely love the $4,500-$5,000 range at the point guard position tonight. There are a lot of solid options that might turn into great options later in the day. Patty Mills and Tyler Johnson are decent cash game plays. Tomas Satoransky has a great matchup and could get lots of run if John Wall ends up sitting out. Even though the Raptors say all their starters will play, they might not get a full allotment of minutes which will make Delon Wright attractive.
My favorite of the night is Ish Smith. In the last six games, Smith and Reggie Jackson have been alternating some playing time. If the pattern holds, then Smith is in line for a heavy dose of minutes tonight. In the last three games that have been “Ish’s Night,” he has averaged 31.8 FD points. Overall, Smith has averaged 25.5 FD points in his last 12 games.
Ian Clark (NO): $4,000 vs. SAS
On Monday night, he played 28 minutes and earned 29.8 FD points against the Clippers. There is certainly question about how the Pelicans are going to approach this game, and there is competition for minutes with Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, and E’Twaun Moore, but Clark should still get plenty of usage with this being the last game of the regular season. Though it is typically scary to target players against the Spurs, Clark has earned 24.8 and 22.9 in his last two games against the Spurs.
Marco Belinelli (PHI): $5,000 vs. MIL
He has returned 5x value in 11 out of his last 13 games. The 76ers are on a roll and Belinelli is no different. In the last four games alone, he is averaging 29.2 FD points.
He is a better play in cash games than he is tournaments because his upside is limited as he has only scored more than 30 FD points a total of nine times all year. He is consistent and should continue to get a good deal of minutes in this last game of the season. The biggest negative is that this is only the third time all year that his price has been at $5,000 or above.
Tony Snell (MIL): $3,600 at PHI
I am almost ashamed to list Snell. He is terrible when it comes to fantasy basketball (though he is a very valuable real-life basketball player). However, in his last two games, he has earned 20.9 and 25.3 FD points (after 10 straight games of sub-20 point performances).
Additionally, for some reason, Snell has done well against Philadelphia this year. In those three games, he has averaged 20.9 FD points. If you are looking for a punt play to save salary, Snell is an option tonight, especially if Giannis Antetokounmpo sits out.
Allen Crabbe (BKN): $5,800 at BOS
In his last three games, he has earned 58.0, 31.4, and 38.9 FD points. Joe Harris is out tonight, and Caris Levert is a game-time decision. In his three games against Boston this year, he has averaged 21.9 FD points. More than likely he should be poised to do even better this time around because Boston has nothing to play for tonight.
E’Twaun Moore (NOP): $4,800 vs. SAS
He has averaged 26.2 FD points in his last eight games. He is more of a cash game play than tournament option but does have some upside as evidenced by his 48.2-point performance last week against Memphis. He has earned 22.3 FD points in each of his previous two games against the Spurs.
Jerami Grant (OKC): $5,000 vs. MEM
Grant is averaging 23.3 FD points in his last five games. This might be okay, but he has a juicy matchup with Memphis tonight. We want to target Memphis any way that we can. He (and the second unit) might be in line for additional usage since this could be a blowout.
Khem Birch (ORL): $4,500 vs. WAS
In Birch’s last five games, he has averaged 30.3 FD points. In those games, he has returned 6.2x, 7.9x, 5.4x, 9.5x, and 10.0x. There is the chance that Orlando rests some front-line players which opens up even more usage for Birch.
Kyle O’Quinn (NYK): $7,200 at CLE
Don’t get cute. Play the center from the Minnesota-Denver game. That game is the only real game on the schedule tonight that matters for both teams.
Karl-Anthony Towns and Nikola Jokic are the guys to target. Certainly there are no guarantees, but these are heads and shoulders the best plays of the night at this position – even though you’ll have to pay up for these raw points. If you are going to gamble, you might as well roll with O’Quinn.
He is a scary player to roster. On paper, this is a great matchup for a center, but on Monday night, he underperformed against the Cavs when he was chalk. Before his 19.3 FD performance, he produced 52.7, 44.8, 40.9, and 31.5 in the previous four games. Enes Kanter is a game-time decision.
If he plays, then you will want to avoid O’Quinn. If Kanter sits, you still should avoid Kanter and, instead play Jokic or KAT.
Jamy Bechler is an NBA fantasy contributor for FantasyPros. His DFS twitter is @WinningDFS101, and his website is www.FantasyFocusFootball.com. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.