It’s Week 4 for Category Targets and as always, I’ll be using ownership percentages from ESPN leagues to give you mostly available options who can help in each of the 10 standard fantasy baseball categories. If you’re desperate for steals and saves, don’t waste time, scroll down to see which starting pitchers I recommended this week.
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Batting Average
Jose Pirela (SD): 47.8%
Pirela entered play Wednesday without a hit in his last two games going 0-for-9 and dropping his average to .289. His prior hot streak has earned him an opportunity to be the leadoff hitter for now, and while he hasn’t hit a home run yet he’s recorded 12 runs and 10 RBI. He hit .288 in 344 plate appearances last year but needed a .343 BABIP to do it. Expecting regression, most of the projection systems had Pirela for an average around .265 this year. While he’s unlikely to hit much better than the projections over a full season, Pirela is the type of player to pick up when he’s hot and use for maybe a month. Another benefit with Pirela is he might be running more than last year as he stole four bases in 83 games last year and he’s already stolen two bases in 19 games this season
Home Runs
Christian Villanueva (SD): 39.2%
Villanueva has a three-homer game and has hit a home run in three consecutive games already on the young season. Six home runs puts him among the league leaders. While he’s striking out in 33 percent of his plate appearances and has a .417 BABIP, which will eventually doom his .327 average, the power is enough for us to notice Villanueva now that he’s surpassed Chase Headley at third base for San Diego.
RBI
Yuli Gurriel (HOU): 47.3%
Gurriel returned from his wrist injury to record four RBI in five games entering play Wednesday. Not only is he in a good lineup, but he’s been hitting fifth, where he’ll have ample RBI opportunities. He hit .299/.332/.486 and had 75 RBI in 139 games last year, which was his first full season in MLB. While Gurriel may have gone overlooked around draft time because of the injury, he shouldn’t now. Add with confidence wherever you need RBI help.
Runs
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR): 4%
Hernandez has started and hit second in all four games since being recalled from Triple-A. He’s also 8-for-19 (.421) with four runs scored, six RBI, a homer and a steal. Henandez is doing it all for the Blue Jays right now, though he’s getting this opportunity right now while Josh Donaldson and Kendrys Morales are on the disabled list. While he might not be a great hitter like Donaldson, as long as he’s producing and hitting second for Toronto (the Jays scored 15 runs Wednesday afternoon) he’s going to score lots of runs.
Stolen Bases
Mallex Smith (TB): 19.4%
Smith only has two steals in 16 games on the season, but with all of the injuries the Rays have had, including an injury to outfielder Kevin Keirmaier that could sideline him for three months, Smith has a clear path to playing time. While we all know he’s blazing fast, he’s only totaled 16 stolen bases each of the last two seasons while playing 72 and 81 games. Considering Smith is destined to play at least 100 games and possibly many more for Tampa Bay this season, he’s a candidate to steal 30 bases.
Wins
Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD): 20.7%
Ryu isn’t my favorite recommendation ever as his 3.77 ERA in 126.2 innings last year was backed up by a pedestrian 4.74 FIP. He was fortunate to strand runners at an 81 percent clip. So far this season, though, Ryu’s 2.87 ERA in 15.2 innings is backed up by a 2.80 FIP. He’s striking out batters at a 30 percent clip as he’s recorded nine and eight strikeouts and received the win in his last two starts. While the Dodgers are off to a slow start, that shouldn’t last very long as they have an offense that can provide consistent run support, which Ryu will benefit from. He isn’t working very deep into games as he went just six innings in each of his wins, but he’s still delivered two quality starts.
Strikeouts
Vince Velasquez (PHI): 12.1%
Velasquez struck out 152 batters in 131 innings in 24 starts back in 2016 while posting a 27% strikeout percentage. Entering Wednesday, he had a 25% strikeout percentage in 15.1 innings this season. While WHIP could be a problem for him, Velasquez has no problem racking up strikeouts when it’s his turn to pitch. Players I’ve recommended in previous who are still available in most leagues: Ian Kennedy (KC), Reynaldo Lopez (CWS), and Nick Pivetta (PHI).
ERA
Trevor Williams (PIT): 37.4%
Williams is 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA over 23.1 innings and four starts. He’s allowed 0, 2, 1, and 2 earned runs in those starts. While Williams isn’t a big-time strikeout pitcher (15% strikeout percentage) and his 3.69 FIP and 86% strand percentage say to proceed with caution, he still deserves our attention right now considering what’s on the waiver wire at the moment. It’s not great out there and with the Pirates looking better than expected, Williams is worth looking at even if it feels like you’re chasing points.
WHIP
Adam Ottavino (COL): 46.6%
Ottavino’s stuff, specifically his slider, is just filthy. It’s a wonder anyone ever gets a hit against him. So far this season in 10.2 innings, Ottavino’s ERA and WHIP are below 1.00. His WHIP is a minuscule 0.28, which is absurd. He’s allowed two hits and a walk while striking out 22 batters, which is also absurd. He’s also won three games already. It’s early in the season and he had an ERA above 5.00 last year, but Ottavino seems to already be one of the best non-closer relievers in all of fantasy.
Saves
Keynan Middleton (LAA): 46.1%
Middleton allowed two runs in his appearance against the Red Sox Wednesday night, but he’s recorded four saves without blowing one and seems to be the closer for the Angels. His top competition for the role, Blake Parker, has a 5.40 ERA and is dealing with a drop in velocity. Meanwhile, Middleton has been converting save opportunities and sitting in the upper-90s with his fastball. The Angels are much improved after adding the likes of Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, Shohei Ohtani, and Zack Cozart to the mix, and the closer should benefit with plenty of opportunities. Middleton is definitely Los Angeles’ go-to guy at the moment. He should be owned in all leagues.
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Nick Shlain is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @electricsnuff.
