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Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 4

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 4

It’s often said that the first rule of medicine is to do no harm. Maybe it should apply to fantasy closers, too.

We always want saves, especially in 5×5 roto and categories leagues. But what about when those saves are few and far between, and they come with an ugly ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rate? That’s the only kind of closer that exists right now in the state of Florida, where Tampa’s Alex Colome and Miami’s Brad Ziegler are making their owners pay a heavy price for those precious saves.

Whether it’s worth it to “take your medicine” probably depends on your league format, but one thing’s for sure. Colome and Ziegler belong at the bottom of this week’s closer rankings. Here’s the full list.

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Team (Closer) Current Rank Previous Rank
Red Sox (Craig Kimbrel) 1 2
Yankees (Aroldis Chapman) 2 3
Mariners (Edwin Diaz) 3 4
Blue Jays (Roberto Osuna) 4 5
Dodgers (Kenley Jansen) 5 1
Pirates (Felipe Vazquez) 6 6
Indians (Cody Allen) 7 8
Rockies (Wade Davis) 8 9
Reds (Raisel Iglesias) 9 7
Mets (Jeurys Familia) 10 10
Padres (Brad Hand) 11 11
Nationals (Sean Doolittle) 12 12
Cubs (Brandon Morrow) 13 15
Royals (Kelvin Herrera) 14 19
Braves (Arodys Vizcaino) 15 17
Diamondbacks (Brad Boxberger) 16 16
A’s (Blake Treinen) 17 18
Rangers (Keone Kela) 18 21
Tigers (Shane Greene) 19 20
Giants (Hunter Strickland) 20 22
Phillies (Hector Neris) 21 25
Twins (Fernando Rodney) 22 24
Angels (Keynan Middleton) 23 29
Cardinals (Bud Norris) 24 14
Astros (Committee) 25 13
Brewers (Committee) 26 28
Orioles (Committee) 27 23
White Sox (Committee) 28 30
Rays (Alex Colome) 29 26
Marlins (Brad Ziegler) 30 27

The Big Movers

Kenley Jansen
Ok, so perhaps moving Jansen back up to number one last week was a bit premature. Jansen had yet another rough outing on Tuesday night in San Diego, surrendering two runs and blowing the save. The good news is that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has made clear that Jansen is nowhere near being removed from the closer role. Jansen will most likely be fine, so his owners shouldn’t panic and sell low. Still, a couple more blown saves could force Roberts’ hand, and the simple reality is that there is increased risk with Jansen right now — risk that doesn’t currently exist with the other top closers who have jumped him in the rankings this week.

Kelvin Herrera
Herrera deserves the bump up the rankings based on how well he’s pitching in the early going (three saves, 0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 12.71 K/9). But we should enjoy the good times while they last, because there’s a good chance he eventually gets dealt to serve as a set-up man for a contender.

Keynan Middleton
I remain skeptical that Mike Scioscia will stick with one closer all year long, but it’s become abundantly clear in the last week that Middleton is the man of the moment, picking up three saves since April 11. That alone slots him ahead of the committee situations, short-term fill-ins, and closers who are currently imploding, but some caution is advised here. Middleton’s peripherals suggest he is more of a 4.00 ERA pitcher than the 2.53 ERA he currently sports, so given his uncertain job security, he could be a sell-high candidate before regression sets in. While Middleton ranks ahead of the closer committees in Houston and Milwaukee as a whole, I’d rather own Chris Devenski or Josh Hader than him in most formats.

Bud Norris/Greg Holland
Holland isn’t earning $14 million this year to pitch in middle relief, but his ascent to the closer role isn’t going to happen as fast as the Cardinals and his fantasy owners were hoping. While Holland has struggled, Norris is off to a great start, with five saves, a 2.61 ERA, and 17 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. Holland had a fairly encouraging performance on Thursday (one walk, one strikeout), but after multiple outings where he couldn’t find the strike zone, he’ll likely need to string together a few more clean innings before he’s back in consideration for the ninth inning. In the meantime, Norris is a must-own player in leagues where most closers are owned — whether you own Holland or not.

Houston Astros
Ken Giles, we have a problem (see what I did there?). Giles didn’t have a ton of job security to begin with, but now he’s also suffering from back tightness, and manager A.J. Hinch didn’t exactly sound optimistic about Giles’ condition on Thursday. Meanwhile, Chris Devenski, who is pitching like his usual dominant self, has already collected two saves, and always-dependable Brad Peacock has closed a game as well. Sounds like a committee, doesn’t it? This situation has quickly gotten as murky as the situation in Milwaukee, as both teams have multiple quality arms that are more than capable of finishing games.

Giles pitched a scoreless ninth inning in a 10-0 game on Friday, so it looks like he’ll manage to avoid a DL stint, at least for now. Even so, it’s impossible to consider Giles as the sole closer at this point. Devenski was worth owning in most formats for help in Ks and WHIP even before he started collecting saves, and he’s a must-own in all formats now. Peacock is also worth picking up in many formats, particularly those where his starting pitcher eligibility is helpful.

Baltimore Orioles
Just when it looked like Brad Brach had locked down the closer job until Zach Britton returns, Buck Showalter threw us a curveball. Or more precisely, a Darren O’Day sidearm slider. O’Day had a rough outing on Wednesday, allowing three runs in an eventual 6-5 loss to the Tigers. But rather than dissuade Showalter from using O’Day to close out games, that rocky outing evidently helped convince Showalter to go right back to O’Day, who picked up the save on Friday against Cleveland. Brach hadn’t pitched since Tuesday, so he was fresh and ready to go if called upon. It’s time to again classify Baltimore as a committee, and all signs continue to point to Britton as the only pitcher Showalter is willing to entrust as his exclusive closer.

Alex Colome/Brad Ziegler
These guys don’t play for the same team, but I’m lumping them together because their situations are quite similar, as I mentioned in today’s lede. Colome and Ziegler are both closers for bad teams that are in full-on rebuilding mode, and they’re both pitching so poorly that they are doing more harm than good to their fantasy owners right now. The Rays and Marlins have little incentive to make a change at closer because they likely believe that Colome and Ziegler could have more trade value if they are able to accumulate some saves. It could reach a point where Tampa or Miami abandon that plan, but that doesn’t appear to be imminent in either case.

Sergio Romo and Kyle Barraclough are the best bets to step in if a change is made. Barraclough is the preferable add because he has some stand-alone value from his high strikeout rate and solid ratios. Romo had a poor outing of his own on Friday (3 ER in 1/3 inning), which won’t help his chances of overtaking Colome.

Random Musings

Raisel Iglesias
Iglesias has been doing everything his owners hoped he would do on the mound — it’s his supporting cast that has been letting his saves-hungry owners down. The Reds are flat-out bad (something a managerial change is unlikely to fix), so it’s fair to wonder how many save chances Iglesias will see this season. Still, save opportunities are notoriously hard to predict; sometimes good teams consistently blow out their opponents by more than three runs, sometimes bad teams win most of their games by only a run or two. Last year, Iglesias finished 13th in the league with 28 saves for a Reds team that lost 94 games, and his contributions in other areas made him a top-10 closer in standard 5×5 roto leagues. That’s a fair expectation for 2018.

Brad Hand
Hand has been as good as advertised in the early going, registering great ratios and a high strikeout rate. He’s also saved six of the Padres eight victories so far (and got the win in another), which can serve as encouragement for Iglesias owners that closers on bad teams can still get saves. The second tier of closers are all bunched closely together, and honestly, there’s not much separating Hand from Felipe Vazquez, who sits five spots ahead of him in the rankings.

Sean Doolittle
Doolittle has been fantastic so far, producing four saves, a 2.70 ERA, a 0.60 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts through his first 10 innings of work, and he should see more save opportunities as the Nationals start to win more games. The only thing keeping him from being higher in the rankings is his injury history, but like Hand, he’s right there with the six closers listed directly ahead of him.

Brad Boxberger/Keone Kela/Shane Greene/Fernando Rodney
All four of these closers had poor outings on Friday night, but none is likely to be in any immediate danger of losing his job. The most secure of the group are probably Boxberger, who is still a perfect 6-for-6 in save opportunities, and Kela, who hadn’t given up a run this season prior to giving up three runs in 1/3 inning in Friday’s loss to the Mariners.

Milwaukee Brewers
Another week has passed without the Brewers settling on a closer replacement for Corey Knebel, and at this point, it’s hard to expect one anytime soon. Josh Hader has collected two two-inning saves since April 14, while Jacob Barnes has one. Matt Albers‘ last save came back on April 11. Hader is one of the most dominant arms in baseball — he has 25 strikeouts in just 11 2/3 innings so far — and is a must-own player whether he is getting saves or not. The fact that Craig Counsell is willing to use him at the end of games is just an added bonus. Barnes and Albers are both solid pitchers, too, and are worth owning in leagues where the saves chase is fierce. Just know you can’t count on any of these guys becoming the Brewers’ exclusive closer before Knebel returns, which will likely be in June.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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