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Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 5

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 5

It’s an interesting time to be playing the save chasing game, folks. As teams have become smarter on the analytics side of the game over the last decade, one of the last bastions of the old way of thinking was that you needed to save your best reliever for one inning save situations. But that’s been changing of late, and dominant relievers like Andrew Miller, Chris Devenski, Archie Bradley, and Josh Hader have already become more valuable fantasy commodities than many closers, even if they will never be full-time closers themselves.

While all of those guys have displayed a commendable willingness to play a more flexible bullpen role, an even bigger shift could be on the horizon in Boston, where manager Alex Cora has been talking with Craig Kimbrel about beginning to pitch in the seventh and eight innings in certain high-leverage spots. Now, it hasn’t actually happened yet, and even if it does, I still expect Kimbrel to get the vast majority of Boston’s save chances this season. Even so, it’s not hyperbole to say such a move could be a precursor to the death of the save as a meaningful statistic.

If Kimbrel, who has been a dominant closer for years and currently ranks first in the rankings that follow, is willing to give up his exclusive ninth-inning role for the overall good of the team, other closers will likely follow suit — or find the market for their services significantly decline if they refuse. Consider Kimbrel a test case; we’ll find out soon enough if Cora follows through with his plans. If so — and if it helps the Red Sox win more games — the closer could eventually go the way of the dodo bird.

But that’s a worry for another day! Here are your Week 5 rankings:

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Team (Closer) Current Rank Previous Rank
Red Sox (Craig Kimbrel) 1 1
Yankees (Aroldis Chapman) 2 2
Mariners (Edwin Diaz) 3 3
Blue Jays (Roberto Osuna) 4 4
Dodgers (Kenley Jansen) 5 5
Indians (Cody Allen) 6 7
Rockies (Wade Davis) 7 8
Pirates (Felipe Vazquez) 8 6
Reds (Raisel Iglesias) 9 9
Padres (Brad Hand) 10 11
Nationals (Sean Doolittle) 11 12
Mets (Jeurys Familia) 12 10
Cubs (Brandon Morrow) 13 13
Royals (Kelvin Herrera) 14 14
Rangers (Keone Kela) 15 18
Giants (Hunter Strickland) 16 20
Tigers (Shane Greene) 17 19
Phillies (Hector Neris) 18 21
A’s (Blake Treinen) 19 17
Diamondbacks (Brad Boxberger) 20 16
Rays (Alex Colome) 21 29
Angels (Keynan Middleton) 22 23
Cardinals (Bud Norris) 23 24
Braves (Committee) 24 15
Astros (Committee) 25 25
Brewers (Committee) 26 26
White Sox (Committee) 27 28
Orioles (Committee) 28 27
Twins (Fernando Rodney) 29 22
Marlins (Brad Ziegler) 30 30

The Big Movers

Atlanta Braves
Arodys Vizcaino has done nothing to lose the closer job, but Braves manager Brian Snitker made clear this week that he envisions Vizcaino sharing the role with A.J. Minter. The move does make some sense; it allows the Braves to play matchups in the ninth with the right-handed Vizcaino and left-handed Minter, and can help ensure both pitchers remain fresh and avoid too many back-to-back appearances.

But it’s not good news for Vizcaino’s fantasy owners, who now have a committee situation to deal with. Vizcaino and Minter are both good pitchers, so Vizcaino owners in most formats would be wise to pick up Minter (if available) and use both of them, at least for now.

Alex Colome
After looking like he was on the verge of losing his job, Colome has hurled four scoreless innings in the last week, striking out six and walking none, and picking up two wins and a save in the process. Colome’s huge decline in strikeout rate last season was concerning, but he did manage to lead the league in saves. His velocity seems to be fine, so perhaps he can be a solid fantasy closer after all — at least until he’s traded to a contender this summer.

Fernando Rodney
Rodney takes Colome’s place at the bottom of the rankings this week, joining Brad Ziegler in the category of closers who are bigger headaches for fantasy owners than the league’s many committee situations. Rodney has blown three of his first five save chances to begin the year, and he has surrendered seven hits and four earned runs over his last three innings pitched. He’s allowed at least one baserunner in all eight of his appearances and multiple baserunners in five of them.

Of course, we knew to expect this from the 41-year-old Rodney, whose lengthy career has been filled with late-inning implosions mixed with occasional spells of complete dominance. The Twins are off to a disappointing start and have a capable backup plan in Addison Reed, but there are no indications — yet — that a change is imminent.

Brad Boxberger
The closers in the 15-20 range are closely bunched together, so Boxberger’s drop down the rankings isn’t as damning as it might appear. That said, he’s had a couple of rough outings of late, and there’s little doubt that Archie Bradley, who picked up his second save last Sunday, is the superior pitcher. Ultimately, while Bradley will steal the occasional save, expect the Diamondbacks to remain committed to keeping Boxberger in the closer role and Bradley in his roving, high-leverage role.

Random Musings

Craig Kimbrel
One bit of news that has flown under the radar in fantasy circles is Red Sox manager Alex Cora’s plans to eventually start using Kimbrel in high-leverage situations in the seventh and eight innings of games, which could potentially cost Kimbrel some saves chances. Cora first broached the topic during Spring Training, and again raised it in an interview this week. The move makes plenty of sense from a strategic perspective but surely isn’t what Kimbrel’s fantasy owners want to hear.

Still, Kimbrel closed out games for the Red Sox on Wednesday and Thursday, and I’m not going to seriously consider moving him down in my rankings until this becomes more than just conversation (and even then, he’s unlikely to fall far). Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes are the most likely candidates to pick up any stray saves, but neither is a must-own player right now.

Kenley Jansen
In the latest edition of the “Kenley Jansen Watch,” Jansen pitched the ninth inning of a game that LA was trailing on Wednesday and proceeded to give up two unearned runs, thanks to two throwing errors by Dodgers infielders. We can’t blame him for that one, but it doesn’t help his case to move back up the closer rankings, either.

Hector Neris
At the beginning of the season, Philadelphia manager Gabe Kapler declined an opportunity to confirm that Neris was his closer, but that was apparently just coach speak, as Neris is operating as the exclusive ninth-inning man. After a disastrous first appearance of the season in which he surrendered three runs in 2/3 of an inning, Neris has settled nicely into the role, allowing just one run over his last 10 1/3 innings while striking out 14 batters. Neris probably walks too many batters to become an elite closer, but he’s certainly good enough to be an adequate one, as he proved in saving 26 games with a 3.01 ERA last season.

Keynan Middleton
Middleton has picked up six saves in the early going as Mike Scioscia’s preferred ninth-inning option, and he’s pitched fairly well in doing it. But after Middleton had pitched on three consecutive days, Cam Bedrosian stepped in and got the save on Tuesday, and then Middleton blew his first save of the season on Friday. I’d still expect Middleton to get the next save opportunity, but his job security can’t be taken for granted given his lack of experience and Scioscia’s tendencies. For now, that lack of job security puts him behind a lot of other closers in the pecking order, even some that he is outperforming.

Bud Norris
If things had gone differently on Friday night, you’d be seeing Greg Holland’s name listed as the Cardinals’ closer instead of Norris. But after Norris pitched a clean eighth inning against the heart of the Pirates’ lineup, Holland fell apart against the bottom of the order, blowing the save by allowing three runs (two earned) without getting a single out. After the game, Cardinals skipper Mike Matheny said it “just might take time” before Holland sees another save chance.

We can read into that two things: 1) Norris is likely to get the next save chance, and 2) Matheny still has every intention of eventually handing the role over to Holland. Norris has continued to pitch very well, but he has to remain in the lower third of the closer rankings as long as Holland lurks to steal his job.

Chicago White Sox
Don’t look now, but Joakim Soria picked up back-to-back saves on Thursday and Friday and has now closed four games for the Pale Hose while posting a 2.70 ERA and striking out a batter per inning. Nate Jones continues to pitch well, too, but if Soria picks up the next couple saves, I may no longer consider this a committee. After all, it has always made the most sense for the White Sox to settle on one closer in order to try to build up his trade value.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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