Welcome back to the depth chart review! Every Wednesday we’ll be going over things like injuries, promotions, and transactions around the majors and how they impact fantasy baseball. This week we’ve got some players hitting the disabled list, and a few returning from injury.
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Lengthy Absence for Kevin Kiermaier Opens Door for Mallex Smith
Kevin Kiermaier was placed on the 60-day disabled list after suffering a torn ligament in his thumb. He will be out at least two months but may miss even more time. Kiermaier had just a .483 OPS and 37.5% strikeout rate before going down and is not worth holding on a disabled list spot in most leagues. His injury means that 24-year-old speedster Mallex Smith will be the regular centerfielder for the Rays. Smith has had a torrid start to the season with a .409 average and 1.004 OPS. Those numbers will certainly regress, but Smith has more than halved his career strikeout rate from 21.1% to 10.2%. He’s also improved his contact rate to 80.9% (73.1% career contact rate), and his hard contact rate has jumped up to 30% (21.7% career rate). Obviously, Smith won’t hit over .400, but he has made tangible improvements at the plate.
Smith’s real value comes from his speed. Between 2013-2015 in the minors Smith had 209 stolen bases, averaging nearly 70 a season. He also stole 32 bases in the majors between 2016-2017 in 497 plate appearances. With every day playing time Smith could reach 40 or more steals. The biggest concern with Smith is his spot in the batting order. He hit ninth on Monday and Tuesday, however, both of those games were against left-handed pitchers. Smith may hit higher against righties, but we’ll have to wait until the Rays face a right-handed pitcher to find out. Even if he doesn’t lead off right away, Smith could force his way to the top of the order with good performance. Adeiny Hechavarria has been hitting second for the Rays, but he has a .214 OBP this season and a .290 OBP for his career. Smith could, and probably should, be hitting higher than Hechavarria. The speed potential and improvements to his approach make Smith a must-add player in all roto or categories leagues. Steals are hard to come by on waivers mid-season.
Rizzo’s Return Creates Outfield Logjam
Anthony Rizzo was activated from the 10-day disabled by the Cubs, who cleared a spot for him by sending first baseman Efren Navarro to the minor leagues. Rizzo has been dealing with back stiffness and hasn’t played since April 5th. Before going on the disabled list Rizzo had been in a slump, having gone just 3-for-28 with a .433 OPS. It’s possible that Rizzo’s performance was impacted by his injury, but he’s also only played six games. There is no reason to worry about Rizzo, and he should be started when healthy.
This move will have an impact on the Cubs’ lineup, as they have a packed roster of versatile players. Ben Zobrist has filled in well for Rizzo, hitting .326 with an .873 OPS on the young season. With this performance, Zobrist could get more playing time in the outfield. The Cubs have a trio of struggling outfielders he could replace. Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Heyward are all hitting under .240 through the first few weeks of the season. Heyward is making over $28 million dollars this season and is a great defender, which means his lineup spot is probably safe. Despite a .238 average and 30.6% strikeout rate, Schwarber has three home runs and a .286 ISO this season. That leaves Ian Happ as the potential odd man out.
Ian Happ has struck out 45.8% of the time this season and has a 20.5% swinging strike rate, which means his .222 batting average could drop even farther. He’s sporting a .381 BABIP, which is about the only thing keeping him above the Mendoza Line. Happ won’t necessarily find himself in a permanent bench role, but he’s in danger of losing playing time because of his performance. He was not originally in the lineup Tuesday night but replaced Ben Zobrist who is dealing with back tightness. Because of the Cubs’ lefty-heavy lineup, the switch-hitting Happ may find himself in a platoon role only playing against left-handed pitchers. Happ can be let go in shallow leagues, while Zobrist is a decent player to add in deep leagues.
Brewers Bats Getting Healthy
The Brewers set themselves up to have a deep outfield during the offseason, but over the past week, they lost Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, and Eric Thames to various injuries. Only Yelich had to hit the disabled list, but he was activated on Tuesday and should be in the starting lineup Wednesday. Both Ryan Braun and Eric Thames returned to the lineup on Tuesday, giving the banged-up Brewers some relief. These moves most affect Jesus Aguilar and Domingo Santana. Aguilar had been an admirable fill-in for Thames, hitting .391 with a .960 OPS on the season. Due to uncertain playing time, Aguilar only had short-term value in deep leagues or NL-only leagues, but that value is pretty much gone unless another injury arises.
Santana won’t become a bench player, but it seems likely his value will be most impacted by these returns. Santana is hitting .262 but has just a .617 OPS. He has only one extra-base hit this season, giving him a hideous .016 ISO. Santana’s hard contact rate has also dropped to 31%, which is around league average. He had been over 38% the previous two seasons. His line drive rate is also at 19% after being above 27% the previous two seasons. His .262 batting average is aided by a .381 BABIP that does not seem sustainable. He is making lower quality contact compared to a year ago. Santana is less proven than Braun, Yelich, and Lorenzo Cain and likely won’t supplant any of them barring an injury or prolonged slump. Eric Thames has been red hot at first base, and since Aguilar has done such a good job in limited playing time he could get playing against lefties. Santana still has time to turn it around, but without regular playing time, he may find it hard to get into a rhythm. When everyone is healthy Santana may be left out in the cold.
Jason Vargas Set for Rehab Assignment, Rotation Decision Looming for Mets
Veteran left-hander Jason Vargas was signed by the Mets this offseason to add stability to an often-injured rotation, but Vargas went down in spring training with a broken bone in his hand. He is set for a rehab start on Sunday and should return within a week. Vargas will be in the rotation for the Mets when he returns, which will leave them with a tough decision to make. Either Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler will be bounced from the rotation. Neither of these pitchers would have any value in a bullpen role, but both could have value in deeper leagues or as streamers while in the Mets’ rotation.
Wheeler came out and looked dominant in his first start against the Marlins. He allowed just one run over seven innings and struck out seven. While the start was impressive, the Marlins are statistically the weakest offense in baseball. As a unit, the Marlins have a .270 wOBA and .079 ISO, both worst in the majors. Some encouraging signs were an average fastball velocity of 95 MPH and 13 total swinging strikes, including eight with his slider. Pitch F/X data isn’t yet available for his Tuesday night outing against the Nationals, but his velocity looked around 93-94 MPH and he was certainly more hittable last night. Wheeler allowed seven hits and three walks over six innings. He also surrendered three runs and struck out just two batters. The two strikeouts came against pitcher Gio Gonzalez and outfielder Michael Taylor, who has a career 31.9% strikeout rate. Wheeler didn’t look as sharp in this start and is no lock to keep his rotation spot, but if he does he could be a good streamer against bad or neutral teams. If he has his velocity and his slider is working Wheeler can be an effective pitcher.
Harvey also had a good first outing from a results standpoint, allowing just one hit and no runs while striking out five against the Phillies. It’s been a rocky road since, as he’s had two straight starts where he’s allowed eight hits or more and four runs. Harvey’s velocity is sitting at 92.5 MPH, which is a career low by nearly two miles per hour, and a far cry from the 96-97 MPH he averaged in his prime. He also has a meager 8.7% swinging strike rate, which is significantly below the league average of about 10%. There are a few encouraging signs, as Harvey has limited walks over these starts. His 4.33 K/BB is a step in the right direction. Advanced pitching metrics also like Harvey, as he is sporting a 3.77 xFIP and 3.78 SIERA despite a 4.80 ERA. Those metrics are not very reliable in small sample sizes, and Harvey has pitched just 15 innings. A metric like xFIP may overrate Harvey because it corrects to league average home run rate, but based on his stuff there is no reason to think he’d maintain a league average home run rate. Harvey probably does not belong in the Mets’ rotation at this point and is only a streaming candidate against the weakest of offenses.
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Elliott Baas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Elliott, check out his archive and follow him @elliottbaasbb.
