Relief pitchers are tough to peg season by season, and thus nearly impossible to gauge a week into 2018.

A couple of clean outings hardly foreshadows a dominant year, but it’s also unwise to stick with a middle reliever getting shelled out of the gate. This, of course, does not apply to Kenley Jansen or any closer who had a rough night or two. Yet holds are not nearly as finite a resource, so the guys highlighted in this column are interchangeable options who require little loyalty.

With the sample sizes too small to analyze, neophytes, former starters, and past closers become the most interesting bullpen arms to watch in the year’s nascent days.

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Jordan Hicks (STL) – 8 Percent Owned
In one of spring’s most surprising roster decisions, the Cardinals allowed Jordan Hicks to skip the line from High-A to their Opening Day roster. The 21-year-old righty quickly cleared up any confusion by firing triple-digit gas in his debut. Anyone still not sure if he’s ready for the grand spotlight should watch this. And this. And also this.

He’s not getting eased into major league action either. St. Louis has used the rookie in three of its first five games. In his last appearance, he recorded the final four outs of an 8-4 win over the Brewers, who scored four runs off Tyler Lyons and Dominic Leone in the following day’s comeback win. His ownership rate might have already soared into the double digits had the Cardinals not signed Greg Holland, who should assume the closer’s role once he’s ready to roll.

With Luke Gregerson also working his way back from the disabled list, Hicks has a highly improbable path to notching saves this season. A prominent setup role isn’t even certain, as one poor evening should not dismiss Lyons and Leone. Then again, Mike Matheney has not treated the youngster with kid gloves, and he has responded by allowing one hit over 3.1 scoreless frames. Hicks is the most likely readily available middle reliever to merit standard mixed-league attention without saves, so invest before it’s too late.

Robert Gsellman (NYM) – 2 Percent Owned
After watching their crosstown rivals dominate from the bullpen, perhaps the Mets are trying to cultivate their own version of Chad Green. Robert Gsellman showed rotation promise in 2016, when he posted a 2.42 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 44.2 late-season innings. That hype gave way to a 5.19 ERA and 6.17 K/9 last year, leaving him out of a starting five that has ample options in the intermittent moments of health. The 24-year-old may already entrench a permanent bullpen role by the time those injuries strike. He has accrued seven strikeouts to no walks in three appearances spanning 3.2 innings. The first guy out of the pen every time, his role could rise in significance with a side injury sending Anthony Swarzak to the disabled list.

While it’s safe to say he won’t sustain his -0.83 FIP, his velocity jumped nearly 2 miles per hour in shorter assignments. A 9.49 career ERA in the third and fourth times through the batting order suggests he’s better suited for the new position. Per Mike Puma of the New York Post, Mickey Callaway said Gsellman is “going to be a real good reliever.” That may be more than a manager’s optimism, and some fantasy managers in daily-lineup leagues will appreciate his SP eligibility. Instead of wasting the spot on an idle starter, the Mets’s new reliever can deliver some strikeouts and holds.

Jim Johnson (LAA) – 3 Percent Owned
This recommendation breaks the column’s typical rules. As a middle reliever, Jim Johnson is just an ordinary dude with a career 3.76 ERA and 6.85 K/9. Knowing Mike Scioscia, he may not be a middle reliever for long.

In spite of a poor spring, Blake Parker entered 2018 with the Angels’s closing job. He converted his only save opportunity, but relinquished two hits, a walk, and a run in each of his first two outings. Elite production didn’t lend him the ninth-inning gig until late August, so the 32-year-old has little leeway. Cam Bedrosian, the rumored closer front-runner in March, also yielded a run on Opening Day. Besides, he’s already accounted for in 42 percent of Yahoo leagues.

If neither of them run away with the job, don’t put it past Scioscia to give Johnson a try. With two 50-plus save seasons under his belt, the 34-year-old wields the closer experience that kept Huston Street in the spot past his peak. Although Johnson underwhelmed with a 5.56 ERA last season, he also posted a 9.69 K/9 and 48.5 ground-ball percentage. He tallied a 3.06 ERA in 2016 and has commenced this season with six strikeouts in 4.2 hitless innings. Even if he does not boast a high probability of returning to the ninth inning, the odds are far better than anyone else available in 97 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Adam Ottavino (COL) – 5 Percent Owned
Adam Ottavino is tough to figure out. If not for undergoing Tommy John surgery to repair an injured elbow, he looked poised to flourish as Colorado’s closer in 2015. He returned to register a 2.67 ERA and seven saves the following year and opened 2017’s April with a 1.42 ERA. By the end of the year, he held a 5.06 ERA with 39 walks in 53.1 innings.

Three spectacular innings does not guarantee a rebound. That checkered past also drops him down the bullpen hierarchy for a Rockies squad that signed Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw this offseason. Keep that all in mind before gawking over his eight strikeouts in three hitless frames. A slider that yielded a .196 wOBA last season is working on all cylinders and driving Ketel Marte into a fit or rage.

He’s one bad outing away from torpedoing an incredible opening week, but Ottavino is one of the game’s best relievers when on his game. Ride his hot streak, but don’t get too comfortable if he loses the strike zone and/or succumbs to Coors Field’s high altitude.

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