We’re just over one week into the season at this point, although it feels like it’s been so much longer than that. There’s been plenty of action so far to entertain any baseball fan, and though it seems like pitching this year has been rough (perhaps that’s just my team), run scoring is actually at a three-year low heading into Thursday’s games. The goal of this piece is to find some pitchers who will continue that trend.
To determine the pitchers eligible for consideration, I looked at players who were owned in less than 30 percent of ESPN leagues.
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Monday, April 9
Jake Junis (KC) vs. Seattle Mariners (15.4%)
Junis impressed in his first start of the year, tossing seven scoreless innings and striking out six while walking just one. It’s hard to say he could burst onto the scene this year, considering his 4.30 ERA in 20 games last season, but there’s certainly room for improvement from the 25-year-old. If he can maintain his walk rate from last season (5.9 percent) and get a few more strikeouts, he could become a promising option week in and week out. His matchup against the Mariners isn’t as good as it could be, but it is at home where Junis had a 3.43 ERA last season.
Tuesday, April 10
Tyler Anderson (COL) vs. San Diego Padres (3.9%)
After scaring some people off in his first start of the season (2.1 innings, 7 earned runs), Anderson bounced back in a big way Thursday, allowing just four baserunners over six innings against the same Padres he’ll be facing this coming Tuesday. It’s not ideal to face the same team twice in such a short time span, but against the Padres, I’m not worried about it. He’ll be pitching at home in the avoid-at-all-costs Coors Field, but oddly enough, Anderson has been better there over the course of his career with a 3.23 ERA in 125 innings.
Wednesday, April 11
Marco Estrada (TOR) @ Baltimore Orioles (26.3%)
Having only made one start as of this writing, it’s tough to know which Estrada we are going to get this season. Will it be the one who posted two consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons in 2015 and 2016? Or the one who allowed nearly a 5.00 ERA last season? Even if it’s the latter, Estrada’s matchup couldn’t be much better, as he faces off against an Orioles offense that is one of the worst in baseball against righties, both in terms of overall offensive production (47 wRC+ entering Thursday’s games) as well as strikeout rate (28.2 percent).
Thursday, April 12
Chris Stratton (SFG) @ San Diego Padres (2.9%)
In 10 starts last season, Stratton had a 2.98 ERA and nearly a strikeout an inning. He struggled somewhat out of the pen, such that his season ERA was 3.68, but even that was backed up by a 4.01 FIP. His first start of the season was serviceable, but that was against the Dodgers-he now gets to face the Padres, which should present a more favorable matchup. He won’t be striking out double-digit batters, but he can provide you a win-or quality start, if you’re into that kind of thing-and some minimal-risk innings.
Friday, April 13
Tyler Mahle (CIN) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (16.3%)
How lucky do you feel on Friday the 13th? This late into the week, it’s nearly impossible to predict who’s going to be starting, but if Mahle does get the call, he’s one of my favorite picks of the week. He dazzled in his first outing, spinning six scoreless innings and striking out seven while allowing just three combined hits and walks. That’s off of his impressive four-start showcase in 2017 in which he had just a 2.70 ERA (albeit with a 4.01 FIP). He won’t continue to strike out a third of the batters he faces, but the Cardinals had struck out in 26.1 percent of their plate appearances going into Thursday’s games (sixth highest in MLB), so the potential for a repeat performance is there.
Saturday, April 14
Clayton Richard (SD) vs. San Francisco Giants (11.5%)
I picked Richard last week in this column in his Opening Day start against the Brewers, and he didn’t disappoint: seven innings, four strikeouts, and just one run allowed. I’m going back to the well this week, taking Richard as he faces the Giants to open the weekend. He’ll be at home, where he’s been significantly better over his career (3.58 ERA vs. 5.04 ERA on the road), and he’ll face off against a Giants team that had a 68 wRC+ against lefties going into Thursday’s games that ranked eighth worst in the majors.
Sunday, April 15
Kendall Graveman (OAK) @ Seattle Mariners (3.7%)
With just two strikeouts-compared to nine earned runs allowed-through his first two games of the season, it’s hard to imagine how you could trust Graveman with a spot start. Still, he has a track record of success, posting an ERA below 4.20 every season of his career, along with FIPs that generally supported those numbers. Safeco Field has traditionally been a pitchers’ park, which should help out Graveman somewhat, but really, what this choice comes down to is a lack of options. Aces are lining up for most of the starts on this day, leaving Graveman the best of the available (although, if I could break the rules just a little bit, I’d much prefer Tyler Skaggs at 30.8 percent owned against the Royals).
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Brian Reiff is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.
