Fantasy Baseball Pitching Streamers: Week 3

Believe it or not, we’re almost already 10 percent of the way through the season. Of course, you know it’s still early when the Mets have the best record in baseball, but that’s how it stands right now. Fortunately for this column, there are pitching streamers throughout the season no matter how early it is, so that’s not a concern. Sample sizes, though, are beginning to increase, meaning we can become more confident in this season’s numbers as we look to find favorable matchups for pitchers.

To determine the pitchers eligible for consideration, I looked at players who were owned in less than 30 percent of ESPN leagues.

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Monday, April 16

Martin Perez (TEX) @ Tampa Bay Rays (0.7%)
Admittedly, this is not a sexy pick. Perez’s numbers have never stood out, as he has a 4.52 ERA for his career and just a 13.9 strikeout percentage. This year has been no better, as his ERA is actually higher than any qualified pitcher entering Thursday’s games. However, if there’s any team against which he can succeed, it’s the Rays, who have become synonymous with being unable to hit lefties. Last year, they had a 90 wRC+ against southpaws. This year, they’re even worse, as they’ve posted just a 70 wRC+ over 156 plate appearances going into Thursday. That’s not to mention their 30.1 strikeout percentage against lefties that is third-highest in baseball. If there’s any matchup that can get Perez back on track, it’s this one.

Tuesday, April 17

Trevor Williams (PIT) vs. Colorado Rockies (13.5%)
Williams fared much better than Perez did last season, pitching to a 4.07 ERA and 4.03 FIP. His 1.56 ERA this season certainly won’t hold, but his FIP of 3.86 is at least an encouraging sign that he’s still capable of putting up those same numbers. After facing the Cubs his last time out, he’ll get a somewhat easier matchup against the Rockies. Pitching in PNC Park instead of Coors is the obvious benefit, but Rockies hitters have struggled mightily against righties this season to the tune of a 65 wRC+ heading into Thursday. They’re not striking out a ton, but Williams has never been a high-K guy anyway. He should be able to keep the run scoring to a minimum and pick up the win.

Wednesday, April 18

Zach Davies (MIL) vs. Cincinnati Reds (26.1%)
Davies has one good game and one bad game so far this season, so his Friday matchup against the Mets could go a long way in determining how confident you are in starting him against the Reds. Regardless, Davies has proven himself to be an above-average pitcher the past two seasons, posting sub-4.00 ERAs in each of them. He’s been unlucky so far this year with a .357 BABIP and 60.6 percent strand rate, so don’t read too much into his unsightly ERA. The Reds had the seventh-worst offense against righties by wRC+ going into Thursday’s games and were striking out the eleventh-most often, so the matchup could be just what the doctor ordered.

Thursday, April 19

Sean Newcomb (ATL) vs. New York Mets (13.7%)
That’s right-I’m taking a pitcher against the MLB-best Mets. In all seriousness, I do believe they’re a good team, but that’s because they have an incredible pitching staff, not because they crush baseballs. In fact, against lefties this season, the Mets had a 64 wRC+ going into Thursday, lowest in the majors. They’re also striking out against lefties 30 percent of the time, fourth most. With Newcomb’s swing-and-miss stuff (24.6 percent strikeout rate for his career), he has the potential to top the nine strikeouts he had last time out against the Rockies.

Friday, April 20

Ivan Nova (PIT) @ Philadelphia Phillies (13.2%)
If anybody read me at all last year, you’ll know that I am not a fan of Nova. I predicted him to regress quite often and wasn’t surprised at all when he came back to Earth. In this matchup at least, though, I see him as a viable streamer. He’s allowing contact at a lower rate than he was last year, and even though that’s not showing in his strikeout percentage yet, it will if he keeps it up. It’ll help that he’ll be going against the Phillies, who struck out the second-most often against right-handed pitching (27.6 percent) going into Thursday’s games. Their overall offense isn’t great, either, as they had just a 79 wRC+ against righties this season as of yesterday. Nova’s been serviceable in two of his three starts this season, and I expect the same against the Phillies.

Saturday, April 21

Andrew Cashner (BAL) vs. Cleveland Indians (7.1%)
Picking a pitcher against the Indians isn’t generally the smartest idea. Picking a Baltimore pitcher is an even worse one. But hear me out. The Indians have actually been the worst offense against righties so far this season, posting just a 46 wRC+ heading into Thursday. Cashner, meanwhile, is coming off consecutive starts in which he allowed one or fewer runs and struck out at least five. He may not be the pitcher he was five years ago, but he’s still good enough to handle a team that has literally been 50 percent worse than average against pitchers of his handedness.

Sunday, April 22

Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) vs. Washington Nationals (7.0%)
If you wanted to go back to Trevor Williams, who’s slated to face the Phillies on Sunday, by all means, do that. But I wanted to switch it up a little bit; hence the Ryu pick. Again, the Nationals aren’t generally a team you want your pitcher matching up against, but against lefties this season, only the Mets had a worse wRC+ going into Thursday than the Nationals (68). The Nationals also struck out the second-most often at 31.3 percent. Ryu, for his part, is coming off a gem against Oakland in which he struck out eight and allowed just two baserunners over six innings. Expect good things from Ryu to close out your week.

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