The story of the weekend was Sean Manaea’s no-hitter against the hottest team in baseball, the Red Sox. That was impressive, there’s no doubt about it. I’m not trying to take anything away from Manaea here.
But if you read this column from last week, you could have gotten similar performance from a pitcher who was largely available as a free agent (unless you play in a points league that awards extra points for no-hitters, in which case, what are you even doing?). In it, I recommended streaming Hyun-Jin Ryu, who was owned in less than 30 percent of leagues at this time last week. On the same day of Manaea’s no-hitter, Ryu threw seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts and only five baserunners allowed.
While that kind of production can’t be expected from every streamer I recommend, there are certainly nuggets to be found out there. Although one of my picks this week is another lefty vs. the Red Sox, so you never know…
To determine the pitchers eligible for consideration, I looked at players who were owned in less than 30 percent of ESPN leagues.
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Monday, April 30
Chad Kuhl (PIT) @ Washington Nationals (5.2%)
Despite a tough matchup, Kuhl gets the nod here. He’s earned a quality start his past two times out there while striking out three times as many batters as he’s walked. His ERA for the season is 4.55, but his FIP is 3.87, likely because of the .373 BABIP that he’s allowed that is almost certain to regress. His opponent, meanwhile, has actually hit righties well this year. However, over the past two weeks, the Nationals are just 20th in wRC+, showing that they can be gotten to.
Tuesday, May 1
Tyson Ross (SF) @ San Francisco Giants (27.3%)
Unlike Kuhl, Ross is actually coming off his worst start of the season. He allowed four runs over four innings on Wednesday, the first time this season he didn’t make it through six innings and the second time that he didn’t record a quality start. Still, that start came at Coors and he’s been great this year, striking out over a quarter of the batters he’s faced on his way to a 3.64 ERA and 3.09 FIP. His last time out against the Giants, Ross went six innings without letting up a run, striking out five and walking just one. Don’t be surprised if he winds up with a similar line this time around, as the Giants’ 90 wRC+ against righties this season through Thursday is 11th worst, and their 25.1 strikeout percentage against righties is sixth worst.
Wednesday, May 2
Sean Newcomb (ATL) @ New York Mets (22.1%)
Newcomb was rolling through his start on Thursday until he got to the fifth inning, showing off his potential if he can put it all together. Even so, his ERA on the season stands at 4.23, which is respectable on its own before comparing it to his 3.66 FIP. The strikeouts are there, too, as his strikeout rate still sits just north of 28 percent, among the best rates of starters in baseball. The Mets, who he’s already faced once this season, struck out in 27.4 percent of their plate appearances against lefties going into Thursday, the fourth-highest rate in MLB. Their 75 wRC+ against righties was similarly bad-fifth worst in baseball.
Thursday, May 3
Mike Minor (TEX) vs. Boston Red Sox (8.4%)
As I teased in the intro, I’m taking Minor this week against the almighty Red Sox. Of course, Minor is no Manaea (I say that half-jokingly, but I was all in on Manaea last year and continue to be so this year). He has held his own this year, though, pitching to a 3.86 ERA and 3.81 FIP in his first four starts while striking out over 23 percent of batters. The Red Sox, meanwhile, were last in baseball with a 56 wRC+ against lefties before Thursday’s games. Now, much of that is likely because of their game against Manaea, but a) those stats still count, and b) that game was only a small percentage of their plate appearances against lefties. They won’t continue to be this bad against southpaws, but this far into the season, it’s not completely noise.
Friday, May 4
Junior Guerra (MIL) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (20.8%)
May the fourth be with you! But actually, Guerra has been quite the star this year. He owns a sparkling 0.56 ERA through three starts and backs that up with a 2.81 FIP (albeit with a 4.07 xFIP). Even so, it’s hard to argue with the success he’s been having, and it’s not entirely unprecedented. In his 20 starts in 2016, Guerra was able to put up a sub-3.00 ERA, and his fastball velocity this season is back closer to where it was then. He’ll face a Pirates team that was below average against righties before Thursday’s games. It’ll be his fourth division game in his first five starts (he also faces the Cubs this Saturday)-and, for what it’s worth, he has a 2.56 career ERA against the Pirates.
Saturday, May 5
Trevor Cahill (OAK) vs. Baltimore Orioles (7.7%)
With only two starts so far this season, it’s hard to make any definitive conclusions about Cahill. Is he who he was last year when he posted 4.93 ERA and 5.28 FIP, with a walk rate more than half his strikeout rate? Or are his numbers this season-a 2.25 ERA and 2.94 FIP- indicative of an improvement? Either way, we’re unlikely to find out on Saturday, as he gets just about the easiest matchup you could ask for. The Orioles had a 65 wRC+ against righties going into Thursday, second-worst in baseball, and they struck out 26.7 percent of the time, third worst. In fact, Daniel Mengden may have been my pick for Friday if I didn’t want to avoid taking three straight righty A’s starters against the Orioles.
Sunday, May 6
Andrew Triggs (OAK) vs. Baltimore Orioles (5.2%)
As I just mentioned, I’m all in with these righty pitchers against the Orioles. Even more so if the game’s in Oakland, which traditionally has been a pitcher’s park and has continued that trend this season. Triggs’ FIP of 3.75 is nearly 100 points lower than his ERA of 4.70 and right in line with his career mark, so I am inclined to believe that he’s gotten unlucky this season. Even so, he’s still struck out six or more batters in three of his five games this season, and there’s a good chance of that happening again against the Orioles. Besides his one disaster so far, he’s only allowed six runs over 21 2/3 innings.
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Brian Reiff is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.
