It’s still early, but it’s getting hard to be patient. Luis Castillo just isn’t living up to expectations. Giancarlo Stanton may set the single-season record for strikeouts. And something is seriously wrong with Kenley Jansen.
Well, that last one is definitely plausible but, for the most part, fantasy owners need to take a collective deep breath. We’re like 1/10th of the way through the season at this point, which as my friend Bobby Sylvester would say, is the equivalent of about six quarters of a football season.
There’s no need to revamp your entire team or chase every player who is off to a hot start. There is plenty of time for your slow starters to turn things around.
But that’s not to say that you should avoid upgrading your team where possible. Little maneuvers here and there, even in the beginning of the season, can be critical to your team’s overall success.
There’s been quite a bit of movement in trade values in the early going. So let’s check in with this week’s trade chart to help us make the right move.
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The Injury Movers
First, let’s touch on Freddie Freeman, who left Wednesday night’s game after getting hit in the wrist. At the time of this writing, we know he will be evaluated sometime on Thursday but, according to a local beat writer, it appears he has avoided a fracture. Like David Price last week, it’s almost impossible to evaluate Freeman’s trade value at this moment. I’ve put him in a spot where I am expecting a disabled list stint, but not one that should cost him a significant amount of time. Obviously, if the results of his evaluation are worse than expected, he’ll drop in value significantly.
A few returning studs, such as Christian Yelich, Nelson Cruz, and J.T. Realmuto, get bumps by virtue of their return to health. I think our healthcare system would improve greatly if after getting over the flu, I could go to the doctor and he/she could say, “Nice job, Dan. You’re back to full health. You’re now worth 24. Way to be.” When I rule the world, that will be the system.
Unfortunately, it’s not all good news in the injury department. Josh Donaldson’s value takes a dip with his vague shoulder injury from which he cannot seem to recover. The Blue Jays insist there is no structural damage so let’s not run away from Donaldson just yet, particularly after his second half last season, but there’s reason enough to be worried.
Jonathan Schoop suffered a strained oblique, which is always a bit tricky. Considering he did it during a swing – a defined event as opposed to Christian Yelich‘s “my side kind of hurts” type of strain – I’m guessing we’re looking at an absence of several weeks.
Finally, Elvis Andrus falls just a bit more. He suffered an injury just before last week’s trade chart, and I guesstimated a six-to-eight week absence. That turned out to be the actual estimate, but there are some rumblings that it could be optimistic and Andrus could miss more time. Either way, that’s a long time to be without a shortstop, and who knows how long it will take him to get back to being effective. In other words, only trade for him if it’s at a super-duper discount.
The Performance Movers
With the caveat that it’s still incredibly early and we don’t want to get too worked about performances just yet, a few players have moved the needle on their trade value with some early work.
Both Rhys Hoskins and Gerrit Cole are firmly establishing themselves in the conversation of the truly elite players. Hoskins isn’t going to bat .327 or have a nearly .500 OBP all season long, but do yourself a favor and watch some of his at-bats some time. He has a superb understanding of the strike zone and a powerful, quick stroke that really should lead to fantasy goodness. It’s early but a sophomore slump looks increasingly unlikely.
As for Cole, many in the fantasy community were excited about his move to Houston and the prospect of him improving by throwing his fastball less. And that’s exactly what has happened. He’s throwing his fastball about 53% of the time, well below his career average, and both his slider and curveball at career-high paces. He looks unhittable right now and has a tidy little 46.8% strikeout rate entering Wednesday night’s start. No big deal.
Other performance-based risers include the ageless Robinson Cano, the suddenly powerful DJ LeMahieu, the perpetually underrated Didi Gregorius, the “I have a bad but no longer historically awful strikeout rate” Joey Gallo, and the speedy Tim Anderson. And just to cut off the angry emails and comments, yes, Patrick Corbin moves up, but let’s still wait to see if hitters adjust to his insane slider usage going forward before anointing him an ace. I’m cautious, but I’m hopeful that he will continue to rise.
Unfortunately, we’ve got a few players whose performances have resulted in a drop in trade value. I can’t say I’m concerned about Yu Darvish after only a couple of starts, but man, is he frustrating to own. And after the World Series last year, it’s fair to be a little concerned. You are not and should not be giving him away, but I’d give up a little less to acquire him today than I would’ve last week.
If I owned Edwin Encarnacion, and because of his obscenely discounted price this draft season I do pretty much everywhere, I wouldn’t be overly concerned. There is always the risk that this is finally the year that Encarnacion falls off a cliff, and he really looks like he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. But he is a notoriously awful starter, so there’s no real reason to panic. But it’s worth noting that he’s even worse right now than he usually is in April. So, it’s the right move to be just a little wary.
The only other hitter who takes a remotely notable move down is Matt Carpenter, whose stated Spring Training goal of getting back to being a high average hitter is going . . . poorly. The thing about Carpenter is he just isn’t making contact. His contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is 72.1% (career rate of 91%) and his contact rate on pitches outside the strike zone is 45.5% (career rate of 67.8%). He’s also not swinging at nearly enough pitches in the strike zone (42.7%, compared to 52.1% career). So, let’s add that all up – not swinging at pitches in the strike zone, missing them when he does, and also missing when he swings at pitches outside the strike zone. To quote Lt. Daniel Caffey in A Few Good Men, “Now I don’t know what any of that means, but sounds pretty bad.”
No, seriously, it’s a small sample size and data like that explains to us what has happened thus far, but it isn’t necessarily predictive of what will happen in the future. And Carpenter is walking a ton, so it’s doubtful that he’s just lost it. But let’s drop him a bit in our trade values to teach him a lesson, eh?
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
