There comes a moment as a fantasy analyst where you just surrender yourself to the whims of the game. Generally, I find these moments usually involve statistical anomalies – whether they be BABIP related, strand rate related, or splits related – yet sometimes they’re something more, something not of this Earth, something atmospheric. Two-start pitchers rely on scheduling and we always go into the spring knowing the weather can cause headaches for the first few weeks. Still, with that said, an icy rain delay at a domed stadium in Toronto? That’s the last straw. It’s out of our hands, people. Trust the following projections as much as you trust Mother Nature.
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Don’t Think Twice
Carlos Carrasco (4/23 @BAL, 4/28 vs. SEA)
Gerrit Cole (4/23 vs. LAA, 4/29 vs. OAK)
Jose Berrios (4/24 @NYY, 4/29 vs. CIN)
Robbie Ray (4/24 @PHI, 4/29 @WSH)
Rick Porcello (4/24 @TOR, 4/29 vs. TB)
Widely-Owned Options
J.A. Happ (4/24 vs. BOS, 4/29 vs. TEX)
He’s still striking out everyone (12.86 K/9), but he’s also been susceptible to the long ball – surrendering five home runs through his first 22 innings. Luckily, for all their offensive success, Boston has just a .102 ISO against left-handed pitching entering action on Thursday.
Masahiro Tanaka (4/23 vs.MIN, 4/28 @LAA)
Of the 25 pitchers to throw 200-plus innings since the beginning of last season, Tanaka has allowed the most home runs per nine at a whopping 1.79. However, the strikeout upside, particularly with the Twins, who strike out 25% of the time, is just too great to keep on the bench.
Gio Gonzalez (4/23 @SF, 4/29 vs. ARI)
Through 17 games, the Giants have already accumulated 368 plate appearances against left-handed pitching – by far the most in baseball. Despite the practice and some historically good southpaw hitters in Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, and Andrew McCutchen, they’ve stunk. The club’s .272 wOBA is the third-lowest mark in the league. Gonzalez should take advantage.
Kenta Maeda (4/24 vs. MIA, 4/29 @SF)
To begin the day on Thursday, Miami was in possession of the league’s worst wOBA (.276) and San Francisco had scored the fewest total runs (50). That’s some scheduling luck for a pitcher who needs it right now. Despite the fact that only 56.5% of the 69 batters Maeda has faced in 2018 have even managed to put the ball in play, an inexplicable 51.3% of those few have been rewarded with hits. Its tough for a 1.01 FIP to have much validation through 14.1 innings, but Maeda’s earned it.
Kevin Gausman (4/23 vs. CLE, 4/28 vs. DET)
There’s a reason Gausman’s Yahoo! ownership is just barely above 50% – he’s not the most consistent guy in the world. That’s troublesome when you’ve got to lock him in for two starts. Still, the strikeout upside is above average and, if you remove the first of his fourth starts this season, his ERA is a respectable 3.71. If you roster him, you might as well use him.
In the Danger Zone
Jake Odorizzi (4/23 @NYY, 4/28 vs. CIN)
If there are two things I know to be truthful about Odorizzi, they are as follows: he is an extreme fly ball pitcher and he loves giving up home runs to right-handed batters. Among active starting pitchers, the righty’s 45.0% career fly ball rate is the fourth-highest figure in the league and, from 2016 to 2017, Odorizzi surrendered 1.82 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs – the fifth-worst mark in baseball. So, now that we have that established, ask yourself what the worst possible situation for Odorizzi would be. Maybe having to face a lineup chalk full of premier right-handed bats in a ballpark known for its tiny dimensions and jet-streams? Sure, Cincinnati might be an ideal matchup for anyone right now, especially considering they haven’t scored a run in 19 straight innings, but it would take something far more tantalizing than the Reds to make me trust Jake Odorizzi in Yankee Stadium against Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Giancarlo Stanton. Avoid this start at all costs.
Tyler Skaggs (4/23 @HOU, 4/29 vs. NYY)
To his credit, Skaggs has actually pitched pretty well for the Angels this year, posting a 2.86 FIP across his first four outings. Yet, sometimes it’s not necessarily about the pitcher – it’s about the matchups. I feel like most would be hard-pressed to think of a more daunting week than taking on both ALCS participants from last season, however, this is the burden that Skaggs will shoulder in Week 4. There are also a few holes to poke in his early success. Though the effects of hard contact are somewhat negated by Skaggs’ 9.30 K/9 and 49.2% ground ball rate, the fact of the matter is, opposing hitters have been squaring up the lefty with some consistency in 2018. Of the 94 pitchers with 50-plus batted ball events to their name, Skaggs has the eighth-highest percentage of those events leaving the bat at over 95mph. On top of that, his 4.8% soft contact rate is the lowest of any qualified pitcher. We saw the cracks begin to form against the Red Sox on Wednesday night and, with Houston and New York sitting sixth and second respectively in wRC+ versus LHP, the whole dam might come down next week.
Alex Cobb (4/24 vs. TB, 4/29 vs. DET)
I’ll state for the record that I do believe it’s premature to say the days of an effective Alex Cobb are behind us, however, for anyone who has watched a single inning he’s pitched in 2018, it’s ludicrous to even fathom putting him out there for two starts – regardless of the competition. It’s entirely likely that a lack of Spring Training has set back Cobb in April. I mean, though he wasn’t amazing last season, the former Ray did post a 3.66 ERA and see his velocity return after Tommy John surgery. Still, we’re not talking about June prospects. Cobb has surrendered 20 hits and 12 earned runs over seven innings for Baltimore – 10 of those hits coming yesterday against the very Tigers team he’ll face again next week. There is no situation possible where I’d advise locking Cobb into your lineup. This is more than an “I have to see it first” type of speculation – it’s an “I have to see it first to even consider beginning to consider him” deal. The schedule might look appealing, but don’t let yourself get drawn in by whatever’s left of Cobb’s name value.
Streamers Under 50%
Hyun-Jin Ryu (4/23 vs. MIA, 4/28 @SF)
Tyler Chatwood (4/24 @CLE, 4/29 vs. MIL)
Steven Matz (4/24 @STL, 4/29 @SD)
Jake Faria (4/24 @BAL, 4/29 @BOS)
As mentioned up top with Maeda, the Dodgers’ two-start options have easily the best schedule draw on the slate. Not only are the Marlins and Giants two of the most underwhelming offenses in all of baseball, but Ryu and Maeda will get to pitch in the spacious AT&T Park – consistently one of the friendliest to hurlers. With the way Ryu has been throwing as of late, though, the Dodgers could play on the moon and I’d still have to take a look at the lefty. Over the course of three starts in 2018, Ryu has struck out 19 in 15.2 innings along with maintaining a 50.0% ground ball rate. It’s not as if Ryu has been getting fortunate with left-handed lineup constructs, either. Only 16 of the 62 batters he’s faced this season have been of the left-handed persuasion and, to be fair, he’s been dominant against RHBs anyway. A sample of 46 hitters should always be taken with a grain of salt, but Ryu’s 32.6% strikeout rate and 5.00 K/BB ratio are positive signs regardless of the volume. It’s also not as if we don’t have prior evidence that the 31-year-old is capable of these sorts of performances. Specific to Week 4, my love for Ryu is based mostly on the pristine matchups, however, if you can add him in a shallower format, I wouldn’t be opposed to possibly hanging on.
Streamers Under 25%
Vince Velasquez (4/24 vs. ARI, 4/29 vs. ATL)
Zach Davies (4/24 @KC, 4/29 @CHC)
Chad Bettis (4/23 vs. SD, 4/29 @MIA)
Tyler Mahle (4/24 vs. ATL, 4/29 vs. MIN)
I understand it’s difficult to restore your faith in someone who has hurt you in the past, but it’s starting to really seem like Vince Velasquez has been rehabilitated. It’s obviously hard to extrapolate too much from four starts, yet in every area you’d be looking to see improvement from last season – it’s there. It’s not like the strikeout upside hasn’t always been present, it’s just that Velasquez seemingly had to sacrifice any semblance of control to achieve that upside. Not so in 2018. The 10.13 K/9 doesn’t look out of place – the 2.12 BB/9 is new, though. Now, I’d definitely need to see this command for a longer stretch of time before I completely buy-in, however, by the time we have complete confidence, Velasquez will have already been plucked from the wire. That’s what makes this two-start week so perfect. This is a trial run with the built-in benefit of instant categorical volume. Also, it’s not only that Velasquez has cut down on the walks, he’s also adored by contact stats. Velasquez has given up a paltry two barrels so far this season in 63 batted ball events – that 3.2% ratio placing him right outside the Top-10 figures in baseball. Ceilings like this don’t come around for free very often.
Not Unless You’re Desperate
Andrew Triggs
Adam Wainwright
Mike Leake
Ty Blach
Brandon McCarthy
Chris Stratton
Matthew Boyd
CC Sabathia
Jarlin Garcia
Marco Gonzales
Chad Kuhl
Josh Tomlin
Carson Fulmer
Matt Moore
James Shields
Bryan Mitchell
Miguel Gonzalez
Sal Romano
Eric Skoglund
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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.
