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Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: 4/9 – 4/15

Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: 4/9 – 4/15

Week 2 of the 2018 Fantasy Baseball season might seem normal in direct juxtaposition to Week 1’s 11-game slate, but don’t yet take a deep breath. Yes, we do have our conventional mix of two-start pitching options: studs, reliable mid-rotation pieces, streamable gas cans – but weather is still very much at play. We’ve seen snow this season in Detroit, New York, and Pittsburgh. Postponements are still very much a consideration and can obviously wreak havoc on even the best-laid plans. If you’re using a pitcher who has to navigate the Northeast, be wary. Unless they’re pitching in Toronto. All the love to domed baseball in April.

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Don’t Think Twice

Corey Kluber (4/10 vs. DET, 4/15 vs. TOR)
Max Scherzer (4/10 vs. ATL, 4/15 vs. COL)
Carlos Martinez (4/10 vs. MIL, 4/15 @CIN)
Justin Verlander (4/9 @MIN, 4/15 vs. TEX)
Luis Severino (4/10 @BOS, 4/15 @DET)
Zack Godley (4/9 @SF, 4/15 @LAD)

Widely-Owned Options

Jon Gray (4/9 vs. SD, 4/14 @WSH)
You’re going to use Gray, yet it must be acknowledged that a start at Coors and a start in Washington does not make for an easy week. Even the Padres benefit from the altitude.

Dylan Bundy (4/9 vs. TOR, 4/15 @BOS)
I’m very intrigued by his 16.7% swinging strike rate through two starts. His slider should play well against two good, but extremely right-handed heavy lineups in Boston and Toronto.

J.A. Happ (4/9 @BAL, 4/15 @CLE)
The win expectancy is low as Happ draws Bundy and Kluber, however, it’s important to not be fooled by his ERA through one week. His 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio is a far more telling stat to how he’s pitched so far.

Blake Snell (4/9 @CWS, 4/14 vs. PHI)
It’s been a case of diametric results through two outings. He looked like a former top pitching prospect against Boston. He got beat-up in New York. Still, entering play Wednesday, Philadelphia led the league in strikeout rate at 29.6%. The White Sox weren’t far behind.

Garrett Richards (4/9 @TEX, 4/14 @KC)
He’ll need to clean up the walks that have driven up his pitch counts early in 2018, but few bring the strikeout per inning upside and tie it with a 50% or better groundball rate. When he’s actually healthy, just use him.

Tyler Chatwood (4/9 vs. PIT, 4/15 vs. ATL)
He needed every bit of the 90% strand rate he managed in his first start for the Cubs against the Reds – six walks will necessitate some clutch pitching with RISP. Hopefully, he’s less erratic next week, yet, even if he’s not, his ability to keep the ball in the park will always help prevent crooked number innings.

In the Danger Zone

Julio Teheran (4/9 @WSH, 4/15 @CHC)
Teheran did pitch far better away from SunTrust Park last season. His 5.86 ERA was over two-and-a-half runs higher than a way more respectable 3.14 figure in his 94.2 innings on the road. I’m not buying into the narrative this week, though. Whether or not you subscribe to BvP and are just, rightfully, terrified by the prospect of Teheran having to face his nemesis Bryce Harper once again, the fact of the matter is Harper’s success is a microcosm of a bigger issue: Teheran struggles when facing left-handed hitters. Now, Washington, sans Harper, is actually pretty righty dependant, but Chicago presents a problem for those afraid of lefties. Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Heyward are all mainstays of the lineup and, barring injury, will be in there next Sunday. Considering Teheran’s fly ball and home run tendencies, I’d tread carefully as an owner.

Johnny Cueto (4/9 vs. ARI, 4/14 @SD)
Two starts. 13 innings. One earned run. That’s pretty good. To the naked eye, Cueto has looked in fine form to begin 2018, but I’m a little hesitant. First and foremost he’s not struck anyone out. Well, that’s an exaggeration, yet, not by much. The veteran has fanned just five batters so far this season, and I use the term “batter” very liberally as two of the five were Alex Wood. The fact of the matter is no one is chasing Cueto’s stuff outside the zone. His 22.9% O-Swing rate would have ranked him last among qualified pitchers over the course of last year. That means he’s forced to pitch in the strike zone with his fastball that is losing velocity by the day. I’m worried. Plus, he tweaked his ankle versus Seattle and is day-to-day. The red flags keep pilling up.

Felix Hernandez (4/9 @KC, 4/15 vs. OAK)
Take everything I just wrote about Cueto (injury aside) and apply it to the former King Felix. 4.82 K/9? Gross. 89.4 mph average fastball velocity? Ugly. 20.2% chase rate? Get off my fantasy team. If Cueto is slowly transitioning into the latter stages of his career, Hernandez is in a free-fall. The walks have been up the past two seasons as he’s realized his fastball can’t live in the strike zone and the home runs allowed are up because he now gets punished when he misses. I rarely want one Hernandez start on my books in a week, let alone two.

Jake Odorizzi (4/9 vs. HOU, 4/15 vs. CWS)
This gets scary quick. Let’s just ignore for a second that the White Sox are one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball through one week. Chalk that up to small sample. Even then, there’s still so much to not like here. Odorizzi, since as far back as 2014, has always had reverse splits. Over the last four years, left-handed hitters have combined to manage just a .278 wOBA off the right-handed hurler. Righties, on the other hand, have hit to a .330 figure. Odorizzi is also an extreme fly ball pitcher which led to him surrendering 1.88 home runs per nine in 2017. All Chicago’s power is from the right side of the plate. Jose Abreu, Welington Castillo, Avisail Garcia, and even Matt Davidson. Houston? Well, they only employ George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman. Avoid Odorizzi at all costs.

Streamers Under 50%

Jakob Junis (4/9 vs. SEA, 4/14 vs. LAA)
Tyler Skaggs (4/10 @TEX, 4/15 @KC)
Miles Mikolas (4/9 vs. MIL, 4/14 @CIN)

You couldn’t ask for a much better start to the new season than what Skaggs has done through his first two outings. Right out of the gate he opened some eyes with 6.1 scoreless innings and a 15.3% swinging strike rate against the Athletics. However, his follow-up performance versus the Indians, though not as spotless, was equally as tantalizing – especially with his groundball rate creeping up above 53%. Still, for as much as you like the recent results, his allure in Week 2 is all about his handedness. Not surprisingly, Skaggs, for his career, has been quite effective against lefty batters. In 295 plate appearances versus left-handers, the southpaw Skaggs has pitched to a 3.42 FIP and has allowed only 0.65 home runs per nine. Texas’ order is quite left-handed and Kansas City, for what they lack in lefty quantity, they make up for in lefty quality in Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda. Skaggs’ ownership on Yahoo! currently sits at 30%, but that number is likely to rise as we get closer to his two-start week. If it’s a success, he won’t be thrown back into the player pool – so take a shot on the upside while you still have time.

Streamers Under 25%

Carson Fulmer (4/10 vs. TB, 4/15 @MIN)
Ben Lively (4/9 vs. CIN, 4/15 @TB)

I won’t try and lead you on – it’s a sparse week to find two-start pitchers to stream in deeper formats. In the case of Fulmer and Lively, literally all it took to be in consideration for best pickup was having the Rays on the schedule, a team that entered play on Wednesday with the lowest wOBA (.242) in all of baseball. They’re exceedingly bad at offense. In a daily moves league, you can get a little experimental if you want to live dangerously – Ivan Nova gets to face the Marlins in Miami; Clayton Richard will square off with the Giants at Petco – but I’d warn against getting too cute in a lock format. It’s slim pickings out there.

Not Unless You’re Desperate

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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.

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