With roughly 10 games of the 2018 baseball season in the books, it’s time to overreact and blindly extrapolate stats over the course of the full year! Just kidding, step away from that drop button. Early underperformers aside, there are several injured players that have created holes in many a fantasy roster. Let’s all just be thankful that Lorenzo Cain and Jose Martinez both appear to be OK after a scary collision at first base. Not everyone is as lucky though, so we’re here to address your needs across all leagues, with the cutoff being players owned in roughly 30% of leagues.
Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo leagues and, along with the stats, are accurate through April 9.
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Priority Pickups – <30% Owned
Matt Albers (MIL – RP): 11% owned
Jacob Barnes (MIL – RP): 30% owned
Barnes’ blown save on April 7 wasn’t as bad as the box score makes it look, as errors (one literal by Travis Shaw, one off the books by Eric Thames) really exacerbated the problem. Still, momentum is key with a closer gig up for grabs and with Josh Hader staying in his flexible fireman role, my money’s on Matt Albers to end up as the most valuable RP in Corey Knebel’s wake.
While I’d never trust him to replicate last season’s 1.62 ERA or 0.85 WHIP (.203 BABIP, 92.4% strand rate), I do believe in the 3.20 SIERA that lurked underneath the surface. He’s owned in far fewer leagues to boot and came in for the save on Monday night. While he blew the save thanks to a tepid trickler and a perfect bunt by St. Louis, Milwaukee regained the lead and Albers stayed in to shut things down with a perfect 10th inning. Once again, my money’s on Albers, but Barnes is a fine add as well.
Andrew Triggs (OAK – SP): 10% owned
Turn the clock back one year ago and Triggs was kicking off 2017 on a fantastic stretch of 10 starts, posting a 2.64 ERA with a 50% groundball rate before hip injuries plagued his final two outings of the season. He would hit the DL and stay there for the rest of the year. What the two bad starts and missed time did for most fantasy owners was inflate his year-long stats to “uninterested” levels and give him an injury red flag to boot.
Now healthy, he whooped the Rangers with seven K’s in five innings of one-run ball before holding an impressive Angels lineup to just two earned over 5 2/3 while fanning six. The 84.9% strand rate will come down, but his 2.93 FIP and 2.92 xFIP through two outings validate the approach and make him a true mixed-league target.
Adam Ottavino (COL – RP): 20% owned
You may know Ottavino as “that guy who wears 0 for Colorado” who we all hoped would be the Coors closer in 2017 after making a triumphant return from Tommy John surgery in 2016. His not closing was the least of anyone’s worries though, as he posted a horrid 5.06 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 53 1/3 innings. His swinging-strike rate fell under 10% for the first time in his career (ignoring his 2012 as a rookie SP) and his 6.58 BB/9 left Colorado no choice but to push him into low-leverage innings.
The 32-year-old looks rejuvenated in 2018, with seven scoreless innings, two wins and 14 strikeouts against just one walk to his name already. He’s mixing in a cutter alongside his sinker and wiffle-ball slider as he blossoms for the Rockies. In an era where non-closing relief arms are finally valued, Otto stands just as tall as anyone else.
Colin Moran (PIT – 3B): 11% owned
Moran was a favorite deep sleeper of mine coming into 2018 thanks to the combination of a mechanics change to his swing and an injury-shortened 2017 that dampened any potential enthusiasm for said change. He mashed with a .308/.373/.543 triple slash through 338 Triple-A PAs last season, which earned him a call to the Majors where he subsequently took a foul ball to the face, ending his year.
Now a Pirate, the 25-year-old has opened 2018 with a .345/.387/.517 line over 31 PAs with eight RBI from the seven hole. The issue here is that low batting slot, but swapping him with fellow lefty-swinger Corey Dickerson at five is the only viable avenue up. Dickerson is batting .303 currently so don’t buy in expecting that, but Moran’s production is worth the roster spot even if the counting stats aren’t optimal.
Reynaldo Lopez (CWS – SP): 28% owned
We highlighted Lopez last week but his most recent performance has led to a few questions coming my way, so I figured I’d double down on the 24-year-old hurler. After holding Toronto to just two hits in his first start, he held Detroit to the same lonely number on April 8 in a tough-luck loss where an unearned run did him in. He’s given up four hits in 13 innings and has an 0-1 record, sigh.
The real dark side is how he also walked five in this latest outing after issuing two free passes in his opener, and obviously, the hits will start dropping. He’ll need to rein in that control for when the .103 BABIP regresses. His next test comes in Minnesota against the Twins on April 13.
Kole Calhoun (LAA – OF): 25% owned
Calhoun entered play on Monday night batting .195 with a homer, four RBI and a stolen base in 43 plate appearances. That is not how you take advantage of hitting fifth in a juicy Angels lineup, but his 43.3% hard-hit rate just hasn’t translated into production yet. His .265 BABIP should keep rising toward his .302 career mark as the year plays out, with the resulting 80-20-80-5-.260(ish) line playing in more than a quarter of fantasy leagues.
He wound up going 2-for-5 with a run scored and a rib-eye on Monday night, but it doesn’t move the needle much as far as the spotlight is concerned. I realize he’s not exciting, but his slot in this lineup holds lots of potential for when the bat warms up. If you want to grab Nick Markakis (also 25% owned) who is batting cleanup for a hot Braves lineup then I won’t fight you. Hot is hot.
Jack Flaherty (STL – SP): 22% owned
I know, friends. Flaherty’s demotion to Triple-A feels like a swift kick to the buns and we’re all pleading with the Cardinals, aka Mike Matheny, to stop with the blind loyalty and just move Adam Wainwright to the ‘pen. While I think Matheny will be stubborn here, I cannot see this iteration of Waino lasting much longer than a month at his current pace, and this ignores any other injury-related route to the rotation for Flaherty. I’d rather stash a Flaherty than say, Jimmy Nelson, at this point. All Flaherty did after his demotion was demolish the Round Rock Express with 11 strikeouts in seven frames. The 22-year-old is talented and ready for his next taste of the Majors.
Jed Lowrie (OAK – 2B): 12% owned
Let’s get the fact that Lowrie is rocking a .419 BABIP out of the way, we know he’s not a .341 hitter. Okay? Good. That said, he has hit third in eight of Oakland’s 10 games so far. He hit second in the other two. I realize he’s as big a durability risk as any, but you clearly didn’t draft him with 600 PAs in mind so why not take the chance that he stays healthy two seasons in a row? His penchant for extra-base knocks (.171 ISO in ’17) and drawing walks (11.3% in ’17) combines with this spot in the order for solid value.
Nick Pivetta (PHI – SP): 10% owned
After a shaky 2018 opener against the booming Atlanta Braves, Pivetta picked apart the Marlins to the tune of nine strikeouts, zero walks and just four hits scattered across 5 2/3 scoreless innings. Yes, it’s the Marlins, but you know what? Pivetta plays in their division! This great matchup will very likely happen again! Not to mention, the one thing we don’t question with Pivetta is a love for strikeouts — he whiffed 140 in 133 innings during his rookie campaign. He also has an improved defense around him, largely due to Carlos Santana tagging in for Tommy Joseph. I won’t be surprised if he winds up with 180 K’s alongside a 3.80 ERA/1.25 WHIP.
Deep League Targets – <10% owned
Nick Senzel (CIN – 3B): 9% owned
Eugenio Suarez is out with a broken thumb and that means the 22-year-old phenom could actually play his natural position — third base — in his Major League debut. Cincinnati unsurprisingly hasn’t called him up yet with the Super Two deadline crawling ever closer, but this is a consensus top-8 prospect who hit .321 with 14 homers and 14 steals across 507 Minor League PAs last year. He’s growing into his pop, has double-digit speed and an incredible contact tool in a hitter-friendly park. Add him now and speculate on the Super Two deadline.
Joey Lucchesi (SD – SP): 10% owned
After a tough Major League debut against the Brewers (4 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 K), Lucchesi put the skills that got him a 2.20 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 148 K’s across 139 Minor League frames last year on display against the Rockies. The rookie yielded just one hit with three walks while fanning seven Rox over five innings of work.
He only walked 33 last year, so three is likely his max range as far as walks in a start go, but I can’t blame him with the way Colorado was swinging. His fastball sat around an unimpressive 90 MPH, but his over-the-top delivery helps him attack hitters high with the cheese and low with his breaking stuff, and he has a quick pickoff move. There are far worse fliers you could take here.
Zack Wheeler (NYM – SP): 4% owned
It’s been eons since Wheeler had his solid 2014 campaign with a 3.54 ERA and 187 whiffs in 185 1/3 innings, with all sorts of health ailments limiting him to just 86 1/3 innings since then (which all came last year). But hope springs eternal in the Big Apple, as the 28-year-old notched a victory in his first start of 2018 at Triple-A (5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K) and will now draw the Major League start on Wednesday against the Marlins. With Miami’s bats truly M.I.A., you won’t want to miss this matchup.
Dan Vogelbach (SEA – 1B): 2% owned
With Ryon Healy sporting crutches, Vogelbach should have some bankable playing time in the near future for fantasy owners to lean on. This is a guy who swatted seven Spring Training dingers with a .407 average, though the power is what you’re buying into here. I’d be thrilled if his average cracked .270 throughout the year.
Jurickson Profar (TEX – OF): 1% owned
Rougned Odor was lifted from Monday’s game in the first inning with a hamstring strain and may require a DL stint. Profar is only 2-for-15 to open the season, but already has six walks to three strikeouts and still possesses non-zero power and speed. There’s a reason he’s last on the list — this is for the desperados — but if he finally sees consistent playing time the 25-year-old (yes, he’s only 25!) could hit a groove.
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Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53.
