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Fantasy Baseball Weekly Planner: Week 3

Fantasy Baseball Weekly Planner: Week 3

The MLB season is two weeks old, and now their MiLB counterparts are a week into their campaigns — at least in full-season leagues. The focus of the Fantasy Baseball Weekly Planner is obviously what’s happening in the Majors, but it’s not too early for forward-thinking gamers to begin keeping tabs on the top prospects who could reach “The Show” later in the year. There are a variety of good sources for minor-league info. MLBfarm.com is one that was developed by Daren Willman. If Willman’s name sounds familiar, that’s because he’s also responsible for Statcast treasure trove Baseball Savant. MLBfarm.com offers heat maps and a variety of other intriguing, in-depth info on individual player pages, and they also make it easy to track stats via league leaderboards or by organization. FanGraphs provides batted-ball data for Minor League hitters on their player pages, and if you adjust your preferences on your account, you can also see SwStr% for Minor League pitchers — in addition to all of the expected statistics for Minor League players. Ol’ reliable MiLB.com remains a helpful source of statistics, too, and the only place that I’m familiar with that includes splits for individual players. Of course, as I’ve said numerous times previously, don’t merely box-score scout. Be sure to also seek out scouting notes from reputable sources such as 2080 Baseball, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs, among other outlets, along with the work our very own Bobby Sylvester does from a fantasy perspective. Now, let’s look ahead at the third week of the fantasy baseball season.

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Notable Matchups

Indians @ Twins (2), @ Orioles (3)
I’m a believer in getting the bad news before the good, so here it is. The Indians are one of two teams that play only five games next week. You’re obviously not sitting their studs, but their fringe starters aren’t must-use options in lineups with weekly lineup changes. They are projected to face five right-handed batters, and that’s ideal for Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso, and Bradley Zimmer, who all have sizable platoon splits that favor facing opposite-handed hurlers.

Twins vs. Indians (2), @ Rays (3)
The Twins are the other club that only plays five games next week. Minnesota’s bats get an even larger downgrade in value next week than Cleveland’s. In addition to playing just five games, the Twins have some tough pitching draws. They’re projected to face Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Chris Archer, and Blake Snell.

Braves vs. Phillies (3), vs. Mets (4)
The Braves are one of a dozen teams that play seven games this week. I won’t be highlighting all 12 of those teams, but the Braves stood out as one of the more interesting teams in that group. They face seven right-handed pitchers next week. The all-righty matchups push Nick Markakis and Preston Tucker into deep-league viability, and Ender Inciarte and Freddie Freeman also benefit.

Rockies @ Pirates (3), vs. Cubs (3)
The Rockies open the week with a three-game road series in Pittsburgh before closing it out with three home tilts. They’re also projected to split their matchups down the middle for left-handed pitchers (Steven Brault, Jose Quintana, and Jon Lester) and right-handed pitchers (Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl, and Tyler Chatwood). The Chatwood matchup stands out as especially tasty. The former Rocky posted a 5.17 ERA in 254.0 innings pitched in Colorado as a member of the Rockies from 2012 through 2017.

Tigers vs. Orioles (3), vs. Royals (4)
Royals @ Blue Jays (3), @ Tigers (4)
I’ll clump these two clubs together. Not all seven-game weeks are created equal, and the Tigers and Royals illustrate why. They play one another in a doubleheader Friday. It seems highly unlikely some of the veteran players such as Miguel Cabrera will be asked to tax themselves by playing in both games of the doubleheader. With that being the case, it might be prudent to view this as something like a six-game week with potential for gravy (i.e. the full seven games or a pinch-hitting appearance in addition to the six games played).

Marlins @ Yankees (2), @ Brewers (4)
Miami’s bats get a double-whammy pick-me-up escaping their largely empty,  pitcher-friendly home digs for six road contests next week. Miller Park and Yankee Stadium rank as two of the most homer-friendly venues in the Majors with the former ranking fifth in homer park factor and the latter leading the way, according to our three-year park factors.

Brewers vs. Reds (3), vs. Marlins (4)
Speaking of Miller Park, the Brewers are home for a full complement of seven games next week. The pitching matchups project to be extremely soft, too. It’s a drool-inducing combo for their hitters, and they all get a major uptick in value.

Hitter Notes

Christian Yelich (MIL)
Yelich could be ready to return from the disabled list on Sunday, according to Sophia Minnaert of  FOX Sports Wisconsin. Gamers in weekly leagues will have a chance to confirm he’s back before locking him into their lineups. He’s obviously a must-start in all league types once healthy.

Eric Thames (MIL)
Sticking with the Brewers, April is once again kind to Thames. He entered last year with the chance to grab an everyday role, but after struggling against southpaws and cooling off down the stretch, he entered this year as a platoon option whose leash could be short if he struggled against righies. He launched his fifth bomb of the year Wednesday, and he’s slashing .263/.364/.711 with a 13.6% BB%, 22.7% K%, and one stolen base for good measure. Thames is an above average source of pop, and he could be less damaging to batting average if he retains his contact gains out of the gate this year and continues to be mostly shielded from southpaws. A platoon role will knock his runs and RBIs ceiling down a bit, but there’s enough to like here to warrant rostering the slugger in 12-team mixers or larger, and he’s streamable in leagues as shallow as 10-team mixers for favorable weeks like next week.

Manuel Margot (SD)/Wil Myers (SD)
Margot joined Myers on the disabled list. The former was hit by a pitch in the ribs on Tuesday night, and the injury doesn’t seem to be serious as it’s classified as bruised ribs. Myers remains on the disabled list with nerve irritation in his right arm. He’s eligible to come off of the disabled list tonight (Friday), but that’s not going to happen. It’s possible if not probable he’ll return next week, but gamers in leagues with weekly lineup changes will want to track his progress over the weekend before committing to using him in week three of the fantasy season.

Franchy Cordero (SD)
In January, Jeff Sullivan took a deep dive into Cordero’s Statcast data and presented a very interesting article that’s worth a read. In short, Cordero has a tantalizing combo of elite running speed and exit velocity. He’s not without blemishes, but power/speed guys can whip the fantasy community into a frenzy. Cordero fits that bill. He swatted 17 homers and stole 15 bases in 93 games (419 plate appearances) at the Triple-A level last year. Additionally, he slashed .326/.369/.603. Those are jaw-dropping numbers. Even accounting for the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League, Cordero was 46% better than the average hitter with a 146 wRC+, per FanGraphs. The obvious fly in the ointment is his penchant for punchouts. Cordero struck out in 28.2% of his plate appearance at the Triple-A level, and that number blew up to an eye-popping 44.4% in 99 plate appearances for the Friars. Not all was doom and gloom in the Bigs, though. He did hit three homers and steal a base in his cup of coffee. The toolsy outfielder opened the year on the disabled list and rehabbing in Triple-A, and he hit .412/.444/.647 with one homer, two stolen bases, one walk, and three strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. He wasted little time making noise on the parent club. The 23-year-old outfielder was activated Wednesday afternoon and slotted in the leadoff position. He struck out twice in four plate appearances, but he also did this. Linked is a video of a homer to dead center easily clearing the 415-foot marking on the outfield wall. Cordero should be scooped up in all 14-team mixed leagues, NL-only formats and deeper leagues, and he’s a solid speculative add in dynasty and keeper formats where he’s available, too.

Pitcher Notes

Johnny Cueto (SF)
Cueto hit the 10-day DL instead of making his scheduled start on Tuesday night, but it’s retroactive to April 7. It doesn’t sound like the sprained left ankle is serious, and ESPN shows him as the projected starter for Tuesday’s game at Arizona. Assuming he has no setbacks over the weekend and continues to project to start Tuesday, that would make him a two-start pitcher next week.

Jeff Samardzija (SF)
Shark is set to clear another hurdle in his return from a pectoral injury suffered in the spring. He’s slated to make a rehab start Saturday at High-A San Jose. A late-April return is a realistic possibility if he avoids any setbacks.

Tyler Thornburg (BOS)
Thornburg’s inclusion in this piece might seem strange to gamers in standard sized, standard scoring leagues, but gamers in deep leagues and holds formats need some love, too! The former Brewer missed his entire first season with the Red Sox while recovering from surgery that was performed last June to treat thoracic outlet syndrome in his right shoulder, but he recently lit up the radar gun reaching back for 95 MPH on his heater in an extended spring training game. In the linked article by Christopher Smith for Mass Live, Red Sox manager Alex Cora noted Thornburg’s changeup isn’t where it needs to be yet. The reliever could begin a rehab assignment next week, and when he rejoins the parent club, could quickly take over a late-inning role in a bullpen that’s gotten shaky early-season returns from Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, and Carson Smith.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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