Welcome to another week of buy/sell, hitter edition. We’ll start with three bats out west whose best days are ahead of them, and then look at three bats who have likely already peaked.

As always, the other part of the equation is to figure out what player(s) should be on the other end of the trade. Every league is different, so you’ll never really know what kind of deal you can swing until you make some offers. But if you’re looking for guidance on a potential deal involving any of this week’s buy/sell candidates — or any players, really — hit me up on Twitter @andrew_seifter and I’ll happily give you my two cents.

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Players to Buy

Nelson Cruz (SEA)
Cruz is fast approaching his 38th birthday, he’s dealing with some bumps and bruises, and he’s hitting .228. I can hear all the naysayers declaring that Nelson is washed up, but I don’t think that’s the case.

When old sluggers become washed up, it’s usually because their reaction time slows and their strikeout rate spikes. But Cruz’s swinging strike rate is right around where it’s been over the last three seasons, when he’s hit for no lower than a .287 batting average, and his strikeout rate is actually the lowest it’s been since way back in 2010, when he was a (somewhat) spry 30-year old. Cruz’s hard contact rate is higher than his career average, yet his BABIP is almost 70 points below his career mark. He’s swapped some line drives for ground balls this year, which hasn’t helped his cause, but his healthy launch angle suggests that’s just some statistical noise that is unlikely to continue to be a problem. It sure looks like Cruz has plenty of life left in his bat.

Andrew McCutchen (SF)
McCutchen is another 30-something hitter that many fantasy owners may mistakenly want to give up on. He has actually been smoking the ball, but has little to show for it so far.

McCutchen’s 48 percent hard contact rate is easily the best of his career — and among the highest in all of baseball —  as is his 27.6 percent line drive rate. Those numbers, combined with a fly ball rate that is right in line with his career norm, should typically lead to a high BABIP and a spike in home runs. But right now, McCutchen sports a middle-of-the-road .317 BABIP and just three home runs, thanks to a career low 6.4 percent HR/FB ratio. He is striking out more than ever, but his swinging strike rate shows that he is still making plenty of contact, meaning his K rate should normalize in time.

Add it all up, and while McCutchen’s days as a .300 hitter and 20+ stolen bases may be over, he could still be even better going forward than he was last year, when he hit .279 with 28 homers and 11 steals.

Brandon Belt (SF)
This one qualifies as a buy-high, because Belt has been absolutely crushing the ball lately. But the bet here is that you won’t have to pay too hefty a price for a hitter who is already 30 years old and has never before been a major asset in standard 5×5 roto and categories leagues.

The reason I recommend buying high on Belt is that his batted ball data provides confidence that the power breakout we’re seeing is the real deal. Belt’s 49.1 percent hard contact rate and 50 percent fly ball rate are both career highs — and both figures rank among the ten–highest in all of baseball. This certainly has the look of a player who has bought into the fly ball revolution and is reaping the rewards. Sure, that change in approach could ultimately have some impact on his batting average, and his .379 BABIP is certainly due to regress somewhat. But Belt can still be a batting average asset if he keeps hitting the ball hard, particularly if he also remains among the league leaders in line drive rate.

Belt is a .270 career hitter who has never even hit 20 home runs in a season. But with a new approach that is clicking, this year Belt has all the makings of a player who can hit north of .280 with over 30 long balls.

Players to Sell

Yoan Moncada (CWS)
Moncada is currently striking out in almost one-third of his plate appearances. The only hitters striking out more often are Chris Davis and Joey Gallo, who are both hitting around .200 or worse. Moncada hits the ball very hard, so he should continue to be a high-BABIP guy, but his current .378 BABIP is still due for some major regression, meaning that his batting average could quickly tumble towards the Mendoza line.

Despite his high strikeout rate, Moncada does possess good overall plate discipline, as demonstrated by his 11.8 percent walk rate and 11.9 percent swinging strike rate. So this sell recommendation does not apply to leagues that use OBP instead of batting average. But before you take Moncada’s low swinging strike rate as evidence that his strikeout rate will improve, consider that he also had a high strikeout rate last season — and in Triple-A and Double-A before that. He has good patience at the plate, but when he does swing, he often misses.

Moncada has all the talent in the world, and fantasy owners will gladly take his .262 average given his potential to rack up home runs and stolen bases. But the bottom line is that if he continues to strike out at his current clip, he is going to become a major drain on your team’s batting average in standard 5×5 leagues.

Nomar Mazara (TEX)
As a 23-year-old who was a prized prospect and already has two 20-HR seasons under his belt, Mazara has the look of a breakout star. But upon closer examination, some skepticism is warranted.

Mazara has 10 home runs already, but that is due to a 33.3 percent HR/FB ratio that is the second-highest among qualified hitters. Mazara’s hard contact rate is up this year, but it is still far from elite, and he is hitting the ball on the ground more than 55 percent of the time. Those are the numbers of someone who should have maybe three or four homers right now, not 10. Mazara is also striking out a bit more than he did in either of his first two seasons, so if that continues, his .276 batting average is more likely to go down than up — particularly as more of the fly balls he does hit turn into outs instead of home runs.

C.J. Cron (TB)
Cron is another slugger who looks set to cruise past his previous career high in home runs. And while that now seems like a given based on his hot start, it doesn’t mean he’ll be a significantly better hitter going forward than he was in past years.

Cron is only hitting the ball marginally harder than he did last season, but both his BABIP and HR/FB ratio are well above his career averages. He’s also striking out in over 25 percent of his plate appearances for the second straight year, after striking out much less often in 2015 and 2016. Given that his strikeouts remain inflated and his batted ball profile has not substantially changed, we should expect his batting average going forward to look more like last season’s .248 than his current .278 clip. He’ll probably be a .255-25 type of hitter when the dust settles.

There’s no shame in using a player like Cron while he’s hot, but offloading him for a slumping slugger with more upside could be an even better alternative. Perhaps if you swap him for someone like Justin Smoak, Adam Duvall, or even (gulp) Jay Bruce, you can get an upgrade elsewhere.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.