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By The Numbers: Paul Goldschmidt, Scooter Gennett, Jose Martinez

By The Numbers: Paul Goldschmidt, Scooter Gennett, Jose Martinez

Paul Goldschmidt is a popular topic of conversation these days, as fantasy baseball enthusiasts try to figure out what to do with him. Is he going to bounce-back? Is the lack of power the work of the infamous Chase Field humidor? Do you cut your losses and try to trade him?

Goldschmidt was a first-round pick in most drafts this season, so needless to say, the results aren’t anything close to what drafters were hoping for. He’s been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball throughout his career, yet as we approach Memorial Day Weekend, all he has to show for his efforts is a .200/.324/.371 batting line with 28 runs, six home runs, 14 RBIs, and two stolen bases. For a guy known as a five-category fantasy star, that’s not exactly living up to expectations.

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So what’s the cause for his struggles? Well, the most glaring change is Goldschmidt’s strikeout rate, which has spiked to an uncharacteristically ugly 31.4%, well above his career average (22.5%). It’s hard to say what’s led to such a dramatic change, but his swinging-strike rate (11.5%) and first-pitch strike rate (67.2%) are way up. Goldschmidt is also notable for having a high career BABIP (.351), and he’s way off that mark at just .279 this season. Between that and the punchouts, we can see why his batting average has plummeted.

The drop in power can perhaps be partially explained by the humidor, as there’s evidence it’s having a very real effect on home runs in 2018. For what it’s worth, Goldschmidt’s ISO at home sits at a paltry .070, compared to .270 on the road. He posted a .265 ISO in 2017, so that latter road mark is much closer to what we would expect. The sample size remains small, and one figures the home/road splits don’t remain this stark over the long haul, but early returns suggest the humidor could be a factor in all this. It’s also worth noting that Goldschmidt’s average exit velocity is down.

As for the speed, most expected Goldschmidt’s stolen bases to drop off as he entered his 30s, and not getting on base as often certainly doesn’t help. However, he isn’t any slower than last year, so it isn’t inconceivable for him to start running if he’s swinging the bat better.

And that’s the real question, isn’t it? Can we expect Goldschmidt to reclaim his former glory? There’s no question it doesn’t look good, and the strikeouts are particularly concerning, but it still feels too soon to throw up our hands and give up on him a quarter of the way into the year. This is a career .294/.396/.524 hitter after all. Maybe he’s pressing at the plate through these struggles, or maybe there’s something else going on, but at age 30, do we really think he forgot how to hit overnight? In fact, he’s still showing a robust 41.8% hard-hit rate and 14.0% walk rate, both of which fall in line with his career marks. If he can cut down on those swings and misses, something resembling the old Goldschmidt should emerge.

However, the early evidence regarding the humidor likely does cap his power potential, so we’re probably not seeing him reach 30 home runs at this point. In all, though, unless you get lucky with an enthusiastic trade partner, selling low now feels like an automatic loss on such a high investment. You’re unlikely to get a guy with Goldschmidt’s upside on the market, so staying pat and trusting in his lengthy the track record feels like the best move. Humidor, strikeouts, or otherwise, Goldschmidt has been too strong a talent over the years to give up on before it’s technically even summer.

Now, let’s take a quick look at how some other guys are doing around the league.

Scooter Gennett has posted a .390 wOBA and .217 ISO

Entering this season, Scooter Gennett was an easy guy to blow off as a regression candidate following his breakout 2017 campaign. Gennett slugged a career-high 27 home runs, but it was more dingers than the prior two seasons combined, and with only minor changes in his batted-ball profile, most figured it was a fluke. Gennett had an ADP just inside the top-200 in March.

But fast-forward to now, and not only is Gennett still showing this newfound hitting prowess, but he may be getting even better. Those small changes in his profile have only gotten more pronounced, and he’s currently sporting an impressive 40.3% hard-hit rate, a big step up from last year (34.4%). He’s also seen his ground-ball rate go down for the fourth consecutive season (37.3%). What may have looked like a one-year anomaly is beginning to look like a real effort to drive the ball through the air, and the result is nine home runs to go with a .390 wOBA and .217 ISO.

Can he keep it up? Well, a .376 BABIP probably isn’t going to stick around, so neither will his .328 batting average, but Gennett holds a noteworthy career BABIP (.331), so maybe the drop won’t be that substantial. Overall, though, it looks like there’s more fact than fiction at play here. Gennett may not maintain a .390 wOBA all season, and it’s hard to say what exactly the ceiling is, but at the low cost of entry it took to get him, it’s all gravy if you kept the faith this offseason.

Jose Martinez is hitting ground balls 51% of the time

Jose Martinez is a fantasy favorite of many in the industry, and he was a popular sleeper entering 2018 — to the point where he probably really wasn’t much of a sleeper at all by the time most draft days rolled around.

And it’s well-deserved praise, as he holds a .371 wOBA, and his .433 xwOBA is one of the best in the league. It’s all supported by a 37.4% hard-hit rate, along with a stellar 13.3% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. He now owns a 138 wRC+ over 520 career plate appearances. Needless to say, the dude can hit.

But if we’re going to nitpick one thing, it’s his curious rise in ground-ball rate. After posting a 42.1% ground-ball rate in 2017, that’s jumped all the way to 51.0% this year, and it’s had a negative effect on his power. Martinez only has five dingers to his name so far, and his ISO is a rather pedestrian .159. If this keeps up, it will cap what we can expect from him in the power department. He also showed a high ground-ball rate for much of his time in the minors, so it isn’t necessarily out of the question that this sticks.

Of course, we’re still dealing with a relatively small sample size at the major league level, and Martinez does pretty much everything else well at the plate, so it’s hardly something to panic about. But to really become an upper-echelon fantasy hitter, reducing those ground balls will be key.

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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.

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