This Saturday offers up an eight-game main slate with Philadelphia being the only spot with weather concerns tonight. You can disregard the games in Detroit and Baltimore as those games are not on the featured slate due to the double-headers scheduled today. The eight games that we have to work with offer up a couple elite pitching options up top, but one is in Philly, likely directing a lot of ownership to Charlie Morton (-248) at a hefty $12,800 tag. In order to get Morton and maybe some Coors bats in our lineups, we’ll need to hunt for some value. So grab your camouflage and binoculars, we’re going to look for some value plays to help make it happen. Ready? Let’s go!
Pitcher
Ross Stripling (LAD): $4,400 vs. CIN
Stripling (-188) is a solid favorite and has a nice strikeout prop (7) on the board. He is dirt cheap and has all the makings of a cash game play. His only downfall is the way the Dodgers handle their rotation. They tend to baby their starters on the pitching staff. However, I believe in the K prop being achievable, even in 5 innings of work. His hard-hit rate is below 30% on the year and he’ll get a Reds lineup that’s only projected to score 3.5 runs. DraftKings has priced a lot of arms way down this season and almost every slate, one of them pays off their value. Stripling should be that guy tonight.
Other Notables
Michael Wacha (STL): $8,000 @ SD
Catcher
Robinson Chirinos (TEX): $2,900 @ HOU
Chirinos is the best catcher value on the board in my opinion as his batted ball metrics the past two weeks have all been excellent. He’s missed a home run by inches twice and also had a rocket line drive hit taken away by a superb defensive play, all in the last eight days. The only downfall is the matchup against Morton. I think this one is a simple flow chart play…stay away from him if you roster Morton. If rostering Morton, look to Coors field for your catcher. I like both guys in Denver but give the edge to Manny Pina because he is $500 cheaper, will most likely get a better lineup spot and probably see one more plate appearance than Chris Iannetta.
Other Notables
Manny Pina (MIL): $3,000 @ COL
First Base
Marwin Gonzalez (HOU): $3,400 vs. TEX (also OF eligible)
MarGon gets a matchup with Doug Fister who has given up 40% hard contact in the last two weeks. He’s looked pretty rough in his last few outings. Gonzalez has shown an escalated hard contact rate as well over the last couple weeks which bodes well against Fister. I think their worlds both collide in a positive way for Gonzalez and negatively for Fister. The ‘Stros as a whole are in a good spot with a high run total, he’s a cheap way to get exposure.
Other Notables
Jesus Aguilar (MIL): $3,800 @ COL
Second Base
Alen Hanson (SF): $3,400 @ PIT
Hanson had a great week and he’s been productive for the Giants since being called up to replace Joe Panik. His batted ball metrics have been excellent and he gets a solid matchup against Chad Kuhl who has struggled against lefties in his career. The switch-hitter will get at-bats from the left side today against Kuhl who has posted a career .390 wOBA and FIP/xFIPs above 5 against lefties. He’s still cheap and is playable in cash games.
Other Notables
Matt Carpenter (STL): $3,700 @ SD (also 3B eligible)
Third Base
Zack Cozart (LAA): $3,600 vs. MIN (also 2B eligible)
Both Carpenter and Cozart have had the same favorable batted ball data in the last two weeks. Both guys are hitting the ball farther, but Cozart is displaying good exit velocities in addition to elevated flyball and hard hit rates. As a result, Cozart provides just a little more value than Carpenter for $100 less but he’s not had the extreme bad luck like Carpenter has. The Halos lineup is arguably better and they also have a higher run total today.
Other Notables
Max Muncy (LAD): $3,000 vs. CIN
Shortstop
Johan Camargo (ATL): $3,100 @ MIA (also 3B eligible)
Camargo checks all the batted ball boxes…his exit velocity, batted ball distance, hard hit rates and flyball rates are all spiked over the last two weeks and the matchup against Jarlin Garcia is one to exploit. Garcia finally got touched up in his last outing and it was way overdue. I think he’s in for another rough outing against the powerful Braves offense. Garcia’s sparkling ERA and WHIP are bound to balloon as both his FIP and xFIP are sit at 4.72/4.73. Not to mention, he’s stranding over 86% of runners on base. All of this is a recipe for regression and more is coming, get in on it now.
Other Notables
Paul DeJong (STL): $3,700 @ SD
Outfield
Marcell Ozuna (STL): $3,500 @ SD
Ozuna has started slow to begin 2018, he’s adjusting to a new park and a new division and dealt with more cold weather than usual. He hates the cold, so now that the temps are rising, I expect his average and power numbers to do the same. His price is depressed because of the slow start and the Cardinals get a hitters umpire tonight in Petco. Both he and DeJong (above) have excellent batted ball metrics the last two weeks as well.
Hernan Perez (MIL): $3,400 @ COL (also 2B eligible)
Ever since the Brewers beefed up their OF, there’s been limited playing time for Perez, who has taken the role of super utility guy for the Brewers. When he’s had a chance, he’s produced this season in limited action. He’s going to fit nicely in a stack with Aguilar as the both of them have elevated hard hit rates of late. We know what happens when high hard hit rates come to Coors, they usually translate into success at the plate so he’s in play.
Carlos Gonzalez $3,800 & Gerardo Parra (COL): $3,500 vs. MIL
Both CarGo and Parra offer exposure to Coors bats tonight. I don’t they’re going to be on my teams, but they offer a lower ownership over some of the guys at the top of the order. I also wouldn’t endorse them in cash games, but if you stack Rockies, make sure to include one, if not both of them. They’re excellent options for one-off plays if you’re searching for upside bats to round out a GPP team. Colorado bats are always in play at home.
Other Notables
Brian Anderson (MIA): $3,000 vs. ATL (also 3B eligible)
Jake Marisnick $2,800 & Josh Reddick (HOU) $3,600: vs. TEX
Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.
