It will be hard to outdo Monday as Memorial Day baseball was a blast, NBA Western Conference Game 7 is heating up as of the time of this writing, and the Stanley Cup Finals have just begun. With all the hoopla going on, I’m here to provide the down-low on value plays for DFS, in the high likelihood that the holiday proved to be too busy to get a lot of research done.
With so many middling pitching options on this 14-game slate, you are presented with many different strategies. You can go for the high upside strikeout guys that I’ll discuss below, or you can play it safe with guys who are more likely to garner a win and eat up innings, but maybe not with the same dominance. My play for tonight is to pick one of each. Danny Duffy is also offered at a steep discount (and for good reason), and could make for a great, albeit risky, play if you decide to load up on high-quality hitters tonight.
As for the hitters, I focus on some contrarian stacks – read on to check them out!
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Pitcher
Tyson Ross (SD): $9,200 vs. MIA
Nick Pollack and Paul Sporer had a nice conversation in last week’s fireside chat regarding Ross. Even though this chat was so last week, it gives a ton of great advice for why Ross is a top 30 starting pitcher, or close to it. For the sake of DFS, Ross makes for a great play tonight as well. There are few pitchers that are likely to have above 30% ownership aside from Charlie Morton, and the fact that Ross seems to be undervalued here at $9,200 makes him a great play. With a 9.55 K/9, 3.54 xFIP, and with close to league average BABIP (.268) and strand rate (75.8%), Ross seems to be back to his old ways. The Marlins have a bottom five record in all of baseball, and their lineup should be attacked on a nightly basis in DFS.
Jon Lester (CHC): $8,100 @ PIT
Lester seems to be consistently undervalued on DraftKings – consider his last month of work: 1.52 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 26 Ks in 29 2/3 innings. While some of his underlying metrics seem to point to him being lucky (83% strand rate, .258 BABIP), Lester is a grizzled veteran who you can almost always count on to notch a quality start with around a strikeout per inning. In this smorgasbord of pitching tonight, he provides a safe floor that can be paired with a high-upside pick like Ross.
Other Notables
Kyle Gibson (MIN): $7,300 @ KC – High upside for Ks, going against a bad team in an extreme pitcher’s park
Danny Duffy (KC): $4,000 vs. MIN – Went nearly eight innings last time around, but do you trust him enough to repeat?
Catcher
Wilson Ramos (TB): $3,300 @ OAK
While The Coliseum is not an ideal situation for a hitter, Ramos is extremely hot, collecting eight hits over his past four games with three RBI. He is facing a gas can in Daniel Gossett, who currently has a 6.28 ERA this year, and had a 6.11 ERA last year. I’m not too concerned with peaking at the “under-the-hood” stats if a player consistently has a 6+ ERA – we already know he is bad. The Rays can make for a decent contrarian stack in order to afford another high-priced stack. Maybe some Rockies hitters in Coors, who hit Jeff Samardzija well? Not sure. Just a thought.
Other Notables
Yasmani Grandal (LAD): $3,600 vs. PHI – Pretty low for a guy who has been raking all year
First Base
Ryan Braun (MIL): $3,900 vs. STL
There are three well-known facts about Ryan Braun: 1) he is not well liked, mainly due to his use of ‘roids; 2) he is on and off the DL all year; 3) he hits in bunches. I would like to focus on fact number three. Braun just put up a great game on Memorial Day, going 3-for-3 with three runs scored, one RBI, and a stolen base. Miller Park is a wonderful place to hit, and the Brewers are on fire. I fully expect Braun to continue putting up solid numbers for a prolonged stretch if he can stay healthy. Further, fact number two may result in him being under-owned, since he just got off the DL.
Other Notables
Ian Desmond (COL): $3,800 vs. SFG – Terrible from a slash-line perspective, but has nine homers and five steals, and is hitting at Coors
Ryon Healy (SEA): $3,500 vs. TEX – A nice piece to a contrarian stack against a pitcher who hasn’t fared well
Middle Infield
Daniel Robertson (TB): $3,400 @ OAK
Par for the course, second base is a wasteland for value plays. I plan on paying up for Jose Altuve, who is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, and he is even back to stealing bases. However, if you need a mid-$3K guy, Robertson is your man. He makes for a nice option against Gossett, and hit fifth in the order on Memorial Day, giving him plenty of RBI opportunities. You can slide him in at second or short.
Addison Russell (CHC): $3,200 @ PIT
Don’t look now, but Russell has hit .321 with 13 runs and 12 RBI over the past month. While everyone and their brother has been talking about him being shipped out in a Manny Machado trade, Russell has actually picked up his production. Russell swatted a homer on Memorial Day and looks to be heating up with the weather. He will be facing a highly touted prospect in Nick Kingham, but the Cubs offense has been more consistent recently, scoring between five and seven runs in their last four games, which Russell has helped aid.
Other Notables
Zach Cozart (LAA): $3,200 @ DET – Better skill than Robertson, but going against Michael Fulmer in a pitcher’s park, making Robertson have a slightly safer floor
Third Base
Matt Duffy (TB): $3,200 @ OAK
Another case of simply going against the gas can in Gossett, but Duffy has a bit of a better track record than Robertson. This year, Duffy has 15 multi-hit games in 38 total games, which shows that he is capable of solid, consistent production. Duffy was also the cleanup hitter in the Rays’ Memorial Day game, so he should see some RBI chances, assuming Ramos is in the lineup with him.
Other Notables
Kyle Seager (SEA): $3,500 vs. TEX – Nine homers are nice, but the .709 OPS is pretty pedestrian. See Healy discussion above
Jedd Gyorko (STL): $3,500 @ MIL – Potential multi-homer power, hitting in a great hitter’s park
Outfield
Adam Jones (BAL): $3,600 vs. WAS
Jones is typically a value play in DFS, as he can be perceived as a boring, safe pick. However, nothing about his track record against Nationals’ starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson is boring: 16-for-44 with four homers, which makes for a 1.050 OPS. His home park is a great hitter’s park, and he is hitting .340 with three homers over the past two weeks. This screams value pick if I ever saw one.
Justin Upton (LAA): $3,500 @ DET
DraftKings sometimes reacts a bit late to guys who are day-to-day or on the DL, and that is the case with Upton. While Fulmer is a quality pitcher and Comerica Park is difficult to hit in, it’s safe to say that Upton is familiar with the park, given that he played on the Tigers. Upton has 11 jacks and typically hits third – he also screams value pick here.
Marcell Ozuna (STL): $3,200 @ MIL
Ozuna was recently dropped in the order, but he is also hitting .500 over the past week with a stolen base. Any potential injury to Ozuna would’ve sidelined him by now, and it is only a matter of time before the power stroke comes. This price is simply too low to be passed upon in a great hitter’s park by a guy who hit 37 homers and drove in 124 RBI last year.
My Lineup
P – Ross
P – Lester
C – Ramos
1B – Desmond
2B – Altuve
SS – Story
3B – Bregman – Astros are scoring a ton of runs right now, and Bregman is heating up
OF – Blackmon – Three words: Blackmon at Coors
OF – Parra – Parra is 13-for-33 lifetime against Samardzija
OF – M Gonzalez – rounding out my Astros stack
Be sure to pay close attention to the lineups when they are released and monitor the weather leading up to game time. For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB. Best of luck!
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Carmen Maiorano is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.
