The topic in fantasy circles around this time of year is always about sample size. No way can Sean Manaea keep up his dominance… Is Ozzie Albies really a top 10 player? What’s up with the early struggles from my studs? Grappling with these issues is tough, especially if you’re on the short-end of the stick and are looking up at the standings with everyone else above you in certain categories.

We’ve all been there, but one thing to remember is, baseball is a game with LOTS of advanced metrics. While it’s impossible to know what the future holds, there are indicators of what’s to come. If you’re new to the game or haven’t researched much on how to recognize unlucky slumps, real signs of danger, or seeing a true breakout, don’t worry. We asked a group of fantasy experts for their thoughts on what’s real up to this point when it comes to specific players’ performances. See what they had to say below.

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Q1. Which player who is greatly outperforming his ADP will be able to sustain his performance and why?

Gerrit Cole (SP – HOU)
“Cole was drafted as the 21st starting pitcher off the board and the 74th player overall, but he’s my fourth-ranked starter for the rest of the season and I feel pretty confident in that ranking. Everything fantasy owners hoped for with his move to the Astros has happened: he’s throwing his fastball much less (about 53% of the time, down from his usual 60-65%) and his breaking pitches much more. The result is a dramatic increase in swinging strike rate and an overall performance that is utterly supported by his underlying metrics. Do not be afraid to buy high here.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Odubel Herrera (OF – PHI)
“Herrera has had a very nice start to the year, and his performance can continue. His plate discipline has been a big factor in his early season success, sporting a much improved BB% and K%. Even assuming some regression occurs, he will still be far better than career and league averages. His .353 AVG may not be sustainable all season, however, as that trends down, he still has the opportunity to add value producing runs in the heart of the Phillies lineup. Assuming he continues to run as the opportunities present themselves, Herrera will continue to be a fantasy star the rest of the season.”
– Jason Johnson (Understanding Fantasy Baseball)

Cesar Hernandez (2B – PHI)
“He’s not the flashiest answer, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Cesar Hernandez finishes 2018 as a top-12 second baseman. Batting atop a Phillies lineup ranking eighth in runs scored as of Friday, the 27-year-old has bolstered his walk percentage from 10.6 to 16.4. As a result, he has already scored 27 runs and stolen six bases in eight tries, so he should challenge respective career highs of 85 runs and 19 steals. Even if he does not sustain his current power pace, he’s now in line to bank double-digit home runs for the first time. With a contact rate (80.1 %) close to career norms, his .270 average should normalize closer to his .283 career norm.”
– Andrew Gould (Bleacher Report)

Kyle Gibson (SP – MIN)
“Gibson has been a waiver wire mainstay for the better part of his career, but he’s evolved into a legitimate fantasy asset thanks to his much-improved slider. He’s pacing well ahead of his career marks for swinging strike percentage (12.2 in 2018 vs. 9.6 career) and his strikeout numbers are also well above what he typically sits at. There may be some slight regression coming thanks to a lucky BABIP so far, but the new-found strikeout ability seems very real and very sustainable.”
– Bill Dubiel (RotoBaller)

Q2. Which player is destined for negative regression despite his early season success and why?

Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL)
“Albies is a wonderful player, but there’s just no way he can sustain this pace. Yes, SunTrust Park is a hitter’s haven and Francisco Lindor is an example of a player who has hit for much more power in the majors than the minors, but still, Albies isn’t suddenly a 30-home run hitter overnight. He’s not walking or stealing bases all that much, and when the power dries up a bit, as it likely will, Albies will simply be a good, but not great, asset. In the end, Albies will outperform his draft position, but I don’t expect him to finish as a top second baseman.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

“I understand the hype around Ozzie Albies‘ tremendous start, but I’m relatively confident he’s not going to hit 60 HRs this season. His current .304 ISO is nearly double his career average, and while other metrics look ‘normal’, this power uptick is something that his fantasy owners cannot expect to continue. Albies will still be a fantasy asset leading off for the Braves, but his value will likely come from speed and runs scored as the season progresses. I view him as the perfect sell-high candidate before his power surge comes back to earth.”
– Jason Johnson (Understanding Fantasy Baseball)

Sean Manaea (SP – OAK)
“Although I targeted Manaea as a preseason post-hype sleeper, I’d now be willing to cash out for a big haul. Oakland’s southpaw has posted a 2.11 ERA and 0.72 WHIP despite only narrowly improving his strikeout percentage to 21.7. The seven walks in eight starts offer far more encouragement, but he’s unlikely to sustain that command with a 58.5 first-pitch strike rate. Pitching to his 3.54 FIP and 3.68 SIERA will still make Manaea a useful fantasy asset, just not an ace.”
– Andrew Gould (Bleacher Report)

Jed Lowrie (2B – OAK)
“It brings me no joy to rain on Lowrie’s hit parade, but there are too many factors working in his favor right now that aren’t sustainable. For example, his batting average is being buoyed by a .383 BABIP (career average is .309), and his HR/FB rate is an absurd 18.9% right now (career average is 6.9%). Simply put, a lot of his success so far in 2018 is unsustainable, and over the course of the season, I think we’ll see him come back down to Earth. This isn’t to say Lowrie won’t put up a solid year and be a legitimate fantasy asset, but to expect him to keep performing at this high a level isn’t realistic.”
– Bill Dubiel (RotoBaller)

Q3. What one player do you expect to positively regress after a slow start to the season?

Willson Contreras (C – CHC)
“I am entirely unconcerned with Willson Contreras’ slow start. Although he’s walking less, he’s also striking out less, and he’s reduced his abysmal 53.3% ground ball rate from last year to a passable 45.3% rate this year. Once the weather officially warms up in Chicago, and the Cubs’ offense picks up, Contreras will go back to putting up elite numbers for a catcher, and he should justify his draft position when all is said and done.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Anthony Rizzo (1B/2B – CHC)
“Looking at ADP, not many early round picks have disappointed as much as Anthony Rizzo. His .210 average and 13 runs scored aren’t impressing anyone thus far. That said, there’s room for optimism. His .202 BABIP coupled with his 3.4 walk rate are FAR below his career averages. Now, he needs to show more discipline at the plate to improve that walk rate, but much of the BABIP has been because of luck. His contact and hard hit rates are good, and as the season continues, he should positively regress. Just looking at his performance over the last week, we may be seeing him breaking out of this early season slump already. Owners should try to buy him now before it’s too late.”
– Jason Johnson (Understanding Fantasy Baseball)

Carlos Santana (1B/OF – PHI)
“Santana is at it again, batting .191 despite a 39.1 hard-hit percentage. It’s nothing new for the notorious slow starter, who has registered a career .335 wOBA through April and .326 wOBA in May, a mark that jumps as high as .384 in July. He’s still drawing walks (13.6 %) and generating pop (six homers, .221 ISO in 37 games), so it’s simply a matter of repairing his batting average. Statcast’s .272 xAVG suggests that shouldn’t be a problem.”
– Andrew Gould (Bleacher Report)

Ian Kinsler (2B – LAA)
“Kinsler has gotten off to a very rocky start in his first year with the Halos, but I think he’s on the verge of rounding into form. He’s suffered from some pretty miserable luck so far with a .218 BABIP, which is a far cry from his .277 career mark, and he’s actually cut down on his strikeouts in 2018. He’s currently striking out in just 9.2% of at bats, whereas his career average is 14.7%. He’s making enough contact where the hits will start to fall soon, and once they do his counting stats will rise, particularly his run total hitting in front of the meat of the Angels’ order.”
– Bill Dubiel (RotoBaller)

Thank you to the experts for naming who they believe are legit breakouts and players bound for regression. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for all the latest discussions this season.

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