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Fantasy Baseball Depth Chart Review: Week 6

Fantasy Baseball Depth Chart Review: Week 6

Welcome back to the Depth Chart Review! Every week we’ll be going over injuries, lineup changes, prospect call-ups, and other transactions and how they affect fantasy baseball. This week we’re looking at the Corey Seager injury, some closer news, and some big power hitters that were moved up to the lead-off position.

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Seager Done for the Year

In the most shocking news of the week, the Dodgers announced that shortstop Corey Seager will have to undergo Tommy John Surgery on his throwing elbow and will miss the remainder of the season. This will affect the Dodgers entire lineup, and they are already missing other key pieces such as Justin Turner, Yasiel Puig, and Logan Forsythe. Chris Taylor will move from center field to shortstop full time, giving him a slight boost in value as he’ll gain shortstop eligibility in all leagues. Enrique Hernandez stands to gain the most playing time immediately, and outfielder Alex Verdugo could carve out some value for himself in the wake of these injuries.

One thing that Hernandez excels in is hitting left-handed pitching. He has a .372 wOBA, .876 OPS, and .242 ISO against lefties all time. Those are all-star level numbers, but unfortunately for Hernandez, every pitcher isn’t left-handed. Against righties, Hernandez has a .264 wOBA, .600 OPS, and .127 ISO. Those are sub-replacement level numbers. With large platoon splits and multi-positional eligibility Hernandez best fits in leagues with daily lineup changes. He can be inserted against lefties and can act as a utility player, filling in for other plays on off days.

Alex Verdugo is MLB Pipeline’s 32nd ranked prospect and is looking at regular playing time due to Yasiel Puig’s injury. Verdugo profiles as more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, as he never had an ISO greater than .200 in higher levels of the minor leagues. He did have strikeout rates below 13% at every level of the minor leagues and only hit below .295 once. He profiles similarly to Reds’ rookie outfielder Jesse Winker. Winker is a high-contact outfielder with moderate power, though Verdugo should have a little more power than Winker while Winker should have a higher on-base percentage. Verdugo will be given every opportunity to carve a role out for himself and may be worth a speculative add to see whether he can perform.

Veteran Closers in Trouble

Two of the most experienced closers currently in the majors have run into a little trouble over the last week. Minnesota’s Fernando Rodney has blown two of his last three save opportunities, and notched a rocky save last Saturday where he walked two hitters. Miami’s Brad Ziegler doesn’t technically have a blown save yet, but he owns a 7.11 ERA through 12.2 innings and was passed over for a save on Saturday in favor of Kyle Barraclough. Both of these closers may be in danger of losing their role and there are some interesting relievers behind them that would make good fantasy options were they made closer.

For the Twins, Addison Reed looks like the next pitcher in line. Reed has some closer experience, as he’s locked down 125 saves over his seven-year career. By most metrics, Reed grades out as a better pitcher than Rodney for their careers. Reed has a lower ERA, FIP, and SIERA than Rodney all time. He also does not suffer from the same control issue that has plagued Fernando Rodney. Reed has a career 4.06 K/BB ratio and 6.3% walk rate, while Rodney owns a 2.04 K/BB ratio and 11.3% walk rate. A pitcher can get away with a poor walk rate if he strikes batters out, but Rodney has a mediocre 20% strikeout rate this season, his lowest since 2011. Even though he secured a save on Saturday, Rodney’s issues are far from over.  The Twins are also coming off an eight-game losing streak, a streak in which Rodney cost them two wins. At 9-15 the Twins can’t afford to give away games, and we might be one Fernando Rodney blow up from a closer change. Reed let a lead slip away on Tuesday night, putting his status as the handcuff in doubt. Reed is still a good stash as he’s been one of the better setup-up men in the majors over the last few seasons and the Twins signed him to a multi-year deal this past offseason.

The Marlins are a different case, mainly because they have no intention of competing for a playoff spot this season. Ziegler also hasn’t blown a save, but he has coughed up the lead in three tie games that ultimately led to losses for the Marlins, and he’s been scored on in five of his 12 outings thus far. Ziegler was passed up for a save opportunity on Saturday despite having not pitched in three days. Marlins manager Don Mattingly said that Ziegler “was just not at 100 percent today,” though no injury was disclosed to the media and Ziegler gave up three runs in his appearance prior to this game. It’s tough to know whether Mattingly trusted him in this situation or how serious the injury actually was since Ziegler pitched the next day.

Ziegler did record the next save on Sunday, but there are cracks here. Ziegler has allowed two home runs already this season after having allowed just one last season and two the year before. He gave up a home run with his slider for the first time since 2014. Unlike Rodney, there are reasons to believe Ziegler can turn it around. He is maintaining a groundball rate over 70% and his SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) is at 2.50, nearly five runs lower than his actual ERA. If his 33.3% HR/FB ratio regresses to his career average of 8.8% and he finds a way to lower his atrocious 43.5% hard contact rate, Ziegler can go back to being a low-end closer. The Marlins will likely give him a longer leash because they want to inflate the veteran’s trade value come July. Barraclough is a decent stash, and with a 39.3% strikeout rate he certainly has the swing-and-miss stuff to handle the ninth, but with a 16.1% walk rate his wild control could make things dicey in high-leverage situations.

Sluggers Leading Off

On Tuesday two managers decided to shake things in their lineups and bat their left-handed sluggers atop the order. The Nationals moved Bryce Harper to lead off, while the Cubs hit Anthony Rizzo first in the order. For the Nationals, this move could be an attempt to curb pitchers from pitching around Harper. Bryce Harper has always had a high walk rate, but he’s drawn a walk in 29% of his plate appearances this season, including eight intentional free passes. As a result, Harper’s .458 on-base percentage is over .200 points higher than his .247 batting average. The Nationals lineup has been decimated by injuries and poor performance. With Anthony Rendon, Adam Eaton, and Daniel Murphy on the disabled list and Ryan Zimmerman sporting a .623 OPS the Nationals lack any semblance of protection for their superstar. While it may cut into his RBI totals, a move like this may serve Harper well. Opposing pitchers may be less willing to put him on knowing that the entire Nationals lineup awaits behind him. It will also get him more plate appearances overall, which is never a bad thing for a player of Harper’s caliber. This is probably a temporary move until the Nationals get healthy, but it should be interesting to see how pitchers approach Harper as he bats leadoff.

Rizzo’s change looks like a response to his dismal start to the year. Through 85 plate appearances, Rizzo is hitting just .149 with an .041 ISO and .448 OPS. He was also mired in a 1-for-19 slump going into Tuesday’s game, but lead off the game with a home run. With Rizzo, it’s hard to find a concrete reason for his struggles. His 17.6% strikeout rate aligns with his career rate and his contact rate is at a career-high 85.7%. The one red flag is a 4.7% walk rate. Rizzo is normally around 11%, so this would be a big drop for him should he maintain such a low walk rate. Much of Rizzo’s struggles seem to be plain bad luck. He has a .172 BABIP, which is over .100 points lower than his career BABIP. Per the Statcast leaderboards Rizzo’s xBA (expected batting average based on contact quality) is .255. He has the largest difference between his actual batting average and expected batting average among hitters that have had at least 50 plate appearances this season. No matter his lineup position Rizzo should turn it around soon and makes for a good buy-low opportunity if his owner becomes impatient.

Angels Lose Their Closer

The Angels placed closer Keynan Middleton on the disabled list with right elbow inflammation on Tuesday. At the beginning of the season, the Angels had trouble solidifying the ninth-inning role, and their situation was covered in detail not once, but twice already in previous iterations of the depth chart review. A more in-depth review of the potential closer candidates exist in those articles, so we’ll focus more on role than skills.

Cam Bedrosian seems like the likely candidate to take the reigns from Middleton. He has a 3.29 ERA through his first 13.2 innings of 2018, but there are some questions with his underlying numbers. Bedrosian has put up a respectable ERA but carries a 5.17 FIP thanks to a 1.98 HR/9 and a career-worst 20.7% strikeout rate. His fastball velocity is also at 93.2 MPH, also a career low and his 8.3% swinging strike rate is significantly below his career average and below league average. Bedrosian might get the job, and might do just fine, but don’t be surprised if he flounders. The stuff isn’t what it was two years ago.

Jeff Fletcher, Angels beat writer for The Orange County Register suggested that Justin Anderson could be in line for saves. Anderson, a 25-year-old rookie, was called up to the big leagues on April 23rd and has pitched just 4.1 innings thus far. In those 4.1 innings, he has yet to allow a run and struck out six batters. Anderson can dial up the heat big time, as his fastball averages 98.8 MPH. He pairs it with a nasty slider that has a 23.5% swinging strike rate on 51 pitches thrown. It would be difficult to envision Angels manager Mike Scioscia trusting such an inexperienced pitcher. Scioscia has been known to favor veterans and experience over young players. Anderson has not only pitched just a week in the majors, but he only pitched five innings at Triple-A before his call-up. Still, Scioscia reportedly likes what he sees in Anderson and 24-year-old Keynan Middleton served him well as the closer. Bedrosian will probably be the hot add until the Angels make an official announcement, but Anderson is someone worth a look too.

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Elliott Baas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Elliott, check out his archive and follow him @elliottbaasbb.

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