Welcome back to the depth chart review! Every week I’ll be going over lineup changes, injuries, promotions, and other transactions around the big leagues and how they affect fantasy baseball. This week we’ve got a pair of top prospect call-ups to look at, the Rays doing interesting things with their pitching staff, and Dee Gordon hitting the disabled list.
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Juan Soto Gets the Call
The Nationals called up 19-year-old outfielder Juan Soto after just eight games in Double-A this season. Soto skyrocketed up the Nationals system this season. He started in Low-A ball and made it up to the majors in under two months, demolishing pitching at every step of the way. His overall minor league numbers this season are .362/.462/.757 with 14 home runs and 28 extra-base hits in 152 AB. Soto was the 15th ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline heading into the season, but his stock has risen even higher based on the strides he’s made this year.
Soto has the potential to have a huge impact even at such a young age. He has never hit below .320 at any minor league stop and only had an ISO below .400 at Double-A. Soto looks in line to get the majority of time in left field while Adam Eaton is on the disabled list and should be added in leagues of all depth based on potential alone. We should temper expectations for Soto because even some of baseball’s elite players have struggled when they were this young. Mike Trout had a .672 OPS in his rookie season, Bryce Harper had an .817 OPS in his, and Justin Upton had a .647 OPS in his rookie season. All three of those players were 19 when called up and eventually developed into stars, but they had their growing pains.
Soto’s promotion has an impact on Washington’s entire lineup. It hurts Matt Adams, who will now split time with the red-hot Mark Reynolds at first base. Adams has only started three times in the last week, and two of those starts were in left field. Adams was a butcher in left field for the Nationals with a -29.3 UZR/150, the worst of any outfielder that logged at least 90 innings in the outfield this season. The annual Matt Adams hot streak has come to an end as well. He is hitting just .129 with no home runs over the last two weeks, so Adams can safely be cut in most leagues. Reynolds has clobbered four home runs in 20 plate appearances for the Nationals since being called up, but with Ryan Zimmerman expected back soon Reynolds may become redundant for the Nationals.
Rays Promote Willy Adames
The Rays also promoted a big-time prospect on Tuesday, calling up 22-year-old shortstop Willy Adames to the major leagues. Adames is the 22nd ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline and second highest prospect in the Rays’ system after pitcher Brent Honeywell. Adames was hitting .311 with an .853 OPS at Triple-A thus far this season, his second season at the level. Normally prospects of Adames’ caliber don’t stay at Triple-A much longer than one season, meaning that Adames is most likely big league ready at this point in his development. Shortly after he was called up Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash said that Adames would only be up for two or three days while regular second baseman Joey Wendle is on paternity leave. That pretty much kills any short-term value Adames might have, as it sounds like he is going back down no matter what he does in those few games.
Adames does have long-term value for both this season and in future seasons. Now that the Rays have shown they are willing to call him up he could overtake either Daniel Robertson, Adeiny Hechavarria, or Joey Wendle at some point this year. Hechavarria is currently on the 10-day disabled list with a hamstring injury, while Wendle and Robertson both appear to be replacement-level players that shouldn’t block Adames from regular playing time.
Many shortstop prospects get their acclaim based on their glove, tools, and athleticism rather than their hitting ability. This sometimes causes the player’s immediate fantasy impact to get overstated. Recent top shortstop prospects like Orlando Arcia, J.P. Crawford, and Dansby Swanson received a lot of attention but failed to produce with the bat upon first arriving at the majors. What separates Adames from those players are his minor league numbers. Adames has shown improvements with his bat at every minor league level and has proven he can handle Triple-A pitching. Those other players were struggling at Triple-A when they got promoted and hadn’t shown that they were ready for the big leagues yet. Adames is a good player to stash even when he gets sent down because based on his minor league track record he should be able to hit right away.
Rays Experiment with Bullpenning
The Tampa Bay Rays got a lot of attention for starting long-time reliever Sergio Romo on Saturday and Sunday this past weekend, using him for less than two innings in each outing before turning the ball over to the regularly scheduled starter. Romo had well over 500 relief appearances in the majors, but Saturday and Sunday mark his only two career starts in the big leagues. The thought process behind this is that the Rays can shield their back of the rotation starters from the opposing team’s best hitters in the first inning. Rather than let young lefties Ryan Yarbrough and Anthony Banda face a left-handed pitcher’s nightmare of Mike Trout, Justin Upton, and Albert Pujols they allow a veteran right-handed reliever to face them early. Real-baseball implications aside, this could have a substantial impact on fantasy baseball depending on league type. League rules will ultimately determine how much of an impact the Rays’ strategy has.
This strategy definitely hurts whatever value Sergio Romo had. Not that he had much value as a middle reliever with a 4.34 ERA and 4.89 FIP, but he will not be getting holds, wins, or saves in this role. If you were using Romo for holds cut him, there are better options even in AL-Only leagues. Yarbrough’s value will be helped by this, especially in leagues with weekly start limits. Owners could get an extra start by using Yarbrough on days where he is expected to come in after Romo and pitch five or more innings. It also helps his chance of getting a win, because by the time he leaves the game it will be closer to the end and less likely that the bullpen would cough up a lead. Conversely, it puts him in the position of potentially facing a deficit without having pitched. But it also means one less time facing the opponent’s best batters. It’s a net positive for the Rays starters that come in during the second or third inning to pitch a majority of the game. They likely aren’t going to do this with their proven pitchers such as Chris Archer or Blake Snell, at least not in the near future.
Yarbrough is the pitcher to target instead of Banda. Yarbrough has a 3.20 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 6.3 K/BB ratio over his last five appearances. Some of those were starts and some were out of the bullpen, but they were all four innings or longer for a total of 25.1 innings. Banda has a 5.40 ERA and 1.5 K/BB ratio in his first two appearances and needs to prove his ability before trusting him in these scenarios. He did have a 2.71 FIP and 11 K/9 at Triple-A before his promotion, so he’s a name to consider if he starts to do well. Yarbrough is great in leagues with weekly or even yearly start limits or in leagues that require relief pitchers to start.
Dee Gordon Placed on Disabled List with Fractured Toe
Things just keep getting worse for the Mariners. A week ago they lost Robinson Cano to a broken hand and a PED suspension. A couple days later Nelson Cruz was hit by a pitch on the foot and missed a few games, only to be hit by a pitch on the elbow upon returning to miss a few more games. Cruz is expected back in the lineup on Wednesday, but there is no timetable for Dee Gordon‘s return. Gordon was placed on the 10-day disabled list Tuesday and said he didn’t expect to miss more than 10 days, but that’s not definitive. Not only will this keep him out of action, but it could affect his ability to run. Gordon is one of the best base stealers in the league so any injury to his feet or legs should be worrisome. Speedster Byron Buxton also suffered a fractured toe earlier this season and has just one steal since returning from the disabled list on May 10th. It should be noted that Buxton has just a .192 OBP this season and has only reached base three times since returning, so he needs to get on base before he can steal a base.
The Mariners will replace Dee Gordon with Gordon Beckham. Beckham has a career .297 wOBA and should not be considered for fantasy in all but deep AL-Only leagues. Stolen bases are always tough to find on waivers, so I’m going to name a few players that are under 40% owned in Yahoo leagues as of this writing and could provide steals in Gordon’s absence.
Travis Jankowski (OF – SD): 30% Ownership
Jankowski already has seven steals since an April 29th call-up including five in the past 10 days. His .354 AVG is aided by a .440 BABIP, but he should put up a respectable average and on-base percentage as long as he is playing. With Manuel Margot scuffling Jankowski has been getting semi-regular playing time in the Padres’ outfield.
Mallex Smith (OF – TB): 28% Ownership
Smith is probably the closest thing to Dee Gordon on the waiver wire. He put up some monster stolen base totals in the minors, including an 88-steal season in 2014 at A-ball and a 57-steal season in 2015 between Double-A and Triple-A. He has 10 steals already this season along with a .303 AVG and .372 OBP. Smith doesn’t have any power, but neither did Gordon.
Chris Owings (2B/SS/OF – ARI): 11% Ownership
Jarrod Dyson (OF – ARI): 3% Ownership
I’ve lumped these two together because they offer similar profiles and are both thrust into starting roles because of injuries. Dyson is playing in place of A.J. Pollock who is on the disabled list with a thumb injury, and Owings is playing in place of Steven Souza Jr., who reaggravated his pectoral injury and was placed on the disabled list Tuesday. Both are hitting below .200 but should provide some steals. I’d prefer Dyson if given the choice since he has multiple 30-steal seasons under his belt and has eight steals already this season. Owings is only a good option if you need someone to play second base. His career high in steals is 21 and he only has four this season. He has also been caught three times, giving him just a 57% success rate. Still, he’s out there playing every day and has the speed to run.
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Elliott Baas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Elliott, check out his archive and follow him @elliottbaasbb.
