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Fantasy Baseball Middle Reliever Targets: Week 10

Fantasy Baseball Middle Reliever Targets: Week 10

The injury bug has again infected MLB. According to Roster Resource, the amount of trips to the disabled list has sprung to 341 and counting. Although a 10-day DL has led to judicious implementation, not all fantasy leagues have accordingly added extra slots.

There’s naturally no room for an injured middle reliever. When the save column is empty, anybody short of Andrew Miller will get dropped at the slightest ailment. Managers are also typically slow to welcome them back to the fold when healthy. That creates a buying opportunity in holds leagues for two New York middle-inning arms, one already back and the other working his way back to a team depleted by more injuries since his own.

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Shane Carle (ATL): 4 Percent Owned
Nobody should make a habit of targeting relievers with no track record who are outperforming their peripherals. Hence my reluctance to write up Shane Carle, a 26-year-old rookie with a 3.31 FIP underneath his 2.10 ERA.

Those metrics are unkind to someone with 22 strikeouts in 30 innings. A reliever with a 41.8 ground-ball percentage won’t maintain such stellar run production with so few punchouts, but perhaps the low K tally represents the real fluke. As of Wednesday, the Atlanta righty had the lowest strikeout percentage (17.9) of all 81 relievers with a swinging-strike rate of at least 12.0 percent. A sharp slider and changeup have led Carle to a 15.5 whiff rate that ranks 15th, and Pedro Strop is the only hurler above him with a strikeout percentage (23.9) below 25.0. He also boasts the third-best first-pitch strike rate (65.6 %) of that top 15 behind Sean Doolittle and Chris Devenski.

His ERA will rise, but more strikeouts should also come for Carle. Despite steep late-inning competition from Dan Winkler – an elite reliever worth rostering in all formats – and Closer of the Future A.J. Minter, the former Rockies starter has collected eight holds. Grab him in holds leagues where still available.

Tommy Kahnle (NYY): 3 Percent Owned
The Yankees’s bullpen still brandishes MLB’s highest strikeout rate and a 3.38 ERA, but expectations set the bar impossibly high. This wasn’t supposed to merely be one of baseball’s best bullpens. It was supposed to be one of, if not the best relief corps ever.

While David Robertson and Dellin Betances have not formed as lethal a setup duo as anticipated, no Yankees reliever has underwhelmed more than Tommy Kahnle. After a breakout year that helped the White Sox net a nice prospect bundle, he allowed five runs and eight walks in 7.1 innings before shoulder tendinitis sent him to the disabled list. The Angels rudely welcomed him back with two hits, two walks and four runs (two earned) on Saturday. He then, however, rebounded by tossing a clean inning Monday against the Astros.

Let’s not forget how valuable Kahnle was last year. While a 2.59 ERA and 1.12 WHIP is hardly irreplaceable from a reliever, only eight accumulated more strikeouts than his 96. His 1.83 FIP ranked fifth behind Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Roberto Osuna, and fellow Yankees reliever Chad Green. Brutal start aside, the 28-year-old has still racked up 10 strikeouts and a 17.5 swinging-strike percentage in nine innings. Possible investors may justifiably want to see a few more encouraging outings before jumping back on board. Just don’t wait too long.

Anthony Swarzak (NYM): 2 Percent Owned
The Mets are going through their annual “Homer at the Bat” stretch where their entire lineup gets sidelined in succession. Their pitching staff took multiple hits this week when A.J. Ramos, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz all got hurt. Seth Lugo, one of their few productive relievers, will start on Thursday. That leaves Jeurys Familia and Robert Gsellman as their only relievers with an ERA below 3.80.

They could soon receive a desperately needed reinforcement in Anthony Swarzak, who began a Triple-A rehab stint on Tuesday. Out for the last two months due to an oblique injury, he could return as early as Tuesday, according to Newsday‘s Laura Albanese.

Like Kahnle, Swarzak revitalized his career with the White Sox last year before a midseason trade. After struggling to hold down a spot on three teams, most recently the Yankees, he registered a 2.33 ERA, 91 strikeouts, and 22 walks in 77.1 innings for the White Sox and Brewers in 2017. Yet unlike their crosstown rivals, the Mets can’t afford to ease their returning reliever into a lower-leverage role. Ideally, he’d take the setup role Ramos failed to occupy so Gsellman isn’t inhibited to a traditional eighth-inning gig. If healthy, Swarzak – who tallied 27 holds last year – will once again become a mainstay in holds formats.

Edgar Santana (PIT): 4 Percent Owned
Richard Rodriguez (PIT): 2 Percent Owned
The fantasy community initially panicked when Felipe Vazquez exited Sunday’s game with shoulder soreness. If the Pirates rostered a clear replacement, his ownership rate likely would have spiked to double digits in anticipation of the closer missing time.

Vazquez instead pitched two days later. Because of the quick resolution, Edgar Santana and Richard Rodriguez only modestly increased to 4 and 2 percent owned, respectively. They’ll probably get dropped with the momentary possibility of saves dissipated, but consider waiting out the situation a little longer.

Vazquez, who recorded a save on Wednesday, has relinquished seven of his eight earned runs in two outings. Although he brandishes a lower FIP (2.26) than last year’s 2.47, he has also regressed noticeably in several significant categories.

  • 2017: 75.1 IP, 1.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 29.3 K%, 6.7 BB%, 52.9 GB%
  • 2018: 25.1 IP: 3.32 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 23.2 K%, 9.1 BB%, 37.9 GB%

It’s possible the false alarm was actually a harbinger. If not, Santana is still an intriguing deep-league holds option. The righty has posted a 3.57 ERA, 47.8 ground-ball percentage, and four walks in 22.2 innings. While the 19 strikeouts are unspectacular, a 13.5 swinging-strike percentage should lead to improvement.

Highlighted four weeks ago, Rodriguez now has two more mentions than holds. Yet he also wields a dazzling 2.18 ERA and 32-3 K-BB ratio. He has received higher-leverage work despite his last six appearances coming in Pirates losses, so don’t be surprised if he eventually emerges as a primary setup option.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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