At least the Justin Timberlake memes are finally done.
We’re now into May, which, technically, could be considered the third month of the season. Injuries continue to pile up as teams’ schedules are now in full swing, with Johnny Cueto, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Jacob deGrom among those injured in just the past few days. While fantasy owners would almost certainly rather replace those guys with a player who can be started week in and week out, there aren’t many players of that caliber freely available, if any. Therefore, one of the best strategies to make up for lost production can be to stream pitchers, as low-owned pitchers with solid matchups can end up providing similar production.
To determine the pitchers eligible for consideration, I looked at players who were owned in less than 30 percent of ESPN leagues.
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Monday, May 7
Doug Fister (TEX) vs. Detroit Tigers (1.5%)
Given his low ownership rate, you might not expect to see that Fister owns a 2.88 ERA this season. It’s possible that the potential buyers are aware of his 4.16 FIP, or maybe they just don’t like the fact that he’s made it more than five innings just once this season, but generally, I would expect more buy-in from the fantasy community. Anyway, he faces off against one of his former teams on Monday, and the matchup is a favorable one. The Tigers are in the bottom 10 in park- and league-adjusted offense heading against righties heading into Thursday, so Fister should be able to rack up a sixth consecutive start allowing three or fewer earned runs.
Tuesday, May 8
Sean Newcomb (ATL) @ Tampa Bay Rays (22.3%)
Three straight weeks I’ve recommended Newcomb now, and despite a four-run outing against the Reds last week, I’d argue he’s been a worthy selection each of those times. He’s now coming off a gem against the Mets where he recorded eight strikeouts and allowed just three baserunners over seven shutout innings. He still sits under 30 percent owned as I write this on Thursday, but there’s a decent chance he won’t by the time you read this. It’s by no means a good matchup against the Rays, who have crushed lefties this year, but Newcomb has been stellar this year. He has a 3.38 ERA through nearly 35 innings, backed up by a 3.16 FIP and 3.40 xFIP. And that’s all before you mention his 29.0 percent strikeout rate.
Wednesday, May 9
Tyler Anderson (COL) vs. Los Angeles Angels (6.6%)
Like Newcomb, Anderson is another high-strikeout pitcher who has the potential for a dominant performance any time he takes the mound. His last start is Example A, where he struck out nine and allowed two earned runs against the Cubs. While that’s just one example, Anderson has allowed more than two earned runs just once this season – his first start of the season, more than a month ago at this point. Yes, the game is in Coors, but Anderson was actually better in Coors last year than he was on the road. Now he’ll face off against an Angels team that had a 92 wRC+ against lefties going into Thursday’s games, so even with Mike Trout to worry about, the overall matchup is a good one.
Thursday, May 10
Vince Velasquez (PHI) vs. San Francisco Giants (9.2%)
There were a few pitchers I considered here, including Caleb Smith of the Marlins and Tyler Mahle of the Reds. In the end, though, I went with Velasquez because of the matchup. Going into Thursday, the Giants struck out in 24.1 percent of their plate appearances against righties and had just a 93 wRC+, which come out to eighth and 12th worst, respectively, in baseball. Meanwhile, Velasquez’s 5.70 ERA is incredibly misleading. He’s actually pitched well, demonstrated by his 3.96 FIP and 3.79 xFIP. His strikeout rate is back to where it was in his first two seasons, and his walk rate is a career best. He’s been undone by a .353 BABIP and 59.5 percent strand rate, both of which will regress back to his career norms.
Friday, May 11
Marco Gonzales (SEA) @ Detroit Tigers (6.0%)
I’ll admit, I didn’t realize how well Gonzales has been pitching before I sat down to write this. When you look past the 5.02 ERA (which everyone should be doing at this point), you see a sterling 2.98 FIP and 2.72 xFIP. He’s striking out over a quarter of the batters he faces and walking less than one in 20, including not having issued more than a single walk in any game this season. A .390 BABIP is the primary reason for his struggles, although, with a .358 career mark, it’s hard not to wonder if there’s something more at play here. Regardless, he should be able to bring his ERA a little closer to his supporting metrics with a matchup against the Tigers, whose 89 wRC+ against lefties before Thursday’s games was eighth lowest in the majors.
Saturday, May 12
Kyle Freeland (COL) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (1.8%)
Coming off a pair of seven-inning starts, Freeland looks like he’s found his groove after not having the smoothest start to the season. Even so, his ERA sits at a respectable 4.24 and is supported by his other metrics. While there are other pitchers with better numbers projected to pitch Saturday (Kyle Gibson and Bartolo Colon, in particular), Freeland has one of the best matchups he could ask for. The Brewers have struggled mightily against lefties this season to the tune of a 73 wRC+ going into Thursday, the third-lowest mark in baseball. If he also pitches well in this Sunday’s game against the Mets – the worst team in baseball against lefties – he could see a huge spike in ownership.
Sunday, May 13
Sean Newcomb (ATL) @ Miami Marlins (22.3%)
Yes, I’ve already picked Newcomb earlier in the week. The fact that I’m doubling down should just go to show you how much I believe in him. Even with a not-so-great matchup against the Marlins, who have hit lefties this year, he’s still the best available option for Sunday as of this writing.
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Brian Reiff is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.
