The Yankees and Red Sox are both great again, which can either be a good or bad thing depending on your rooting interests. The Astros, too, are right with them at the top of the standings, right where they’re supposed to be. Most teams are where we expected them to be in the standings, give or take a few places. Then there’s the Dodgers-who knows what’s going on there.
The point of this isn’t to direct animosity toward any team or fanbase, but rather to mention that while our perspective on teams mostly lines up with their actual performance, that’s not universally the case. A couple of the pitchers I selected below are facing the Marlins and Reds-two teams that wouldn’t have been surprising choices a month and a half ago. However, there are also pitchers facing the Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks in the list below who have some of the best matchups of the week.
To determine the pitchers eligible for consideration, I looked at players who were owned in less than 30 percent of ESPN leagues.
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Monday, May 21
Zack Wheeler (NYM) vs. Miami Marlins (9.2%)
It may seem odd to pick Wheeler-owner of a 5.92 ERA-on the same day that future-Hall of Famer Jordan Lyles is pitching, and I certainly wouldn’t fault you for picking Lyles. He is facing the Nationals, though, while Wheeler gets a significantly easier matchup against the soft-hitting Marlins, whose 74 wRC+ against righties going into Thursday was second lowest in the majors and 24 percent strikeout rate was 10th highest. Wheeler, too, is coming off a span of three starts in which he’s allowed six or more runs twice. Even so, he’s struck out seven or more batters in four of his seven starts this season, and his peripherals indicate he’s gotten somewhat unlucky. He has a more-than-serviceable 4.62 FIP and 4.29 xFIP, the latter of which is right around the major league average for starters.
Tuesday, May 22
Trevor Cahill (OAK) vs. Seattle Mariners (13.7%)
Cahill was a popular add after his 12-strikeout game, but even while allowing only three runs in his subsequent game on Wednesday, the one strikeout and the lack of a win or quality start likely didn’t help fantasy owners. He’ll get another crack at it on Tuesday against the Mariners, and there’s reason to believe he’ll fare better. His last start came against the Red Sox, who, going into Thursday’s games, had the best wRC+ against righties of any team (116), meaning the fact that he held them to three runs was actually quite impressive. The Mariners aren’t bad, but their wRC+ against righties of 101 should appear almost docile to Cahill. His 2.79 ERA and 3.01 FIP this season are elite, and so he should keep being rolled out there as long as he’s rolling.
Wednesday, May 23
Ross Stripling (LAD) vs. Colorado Rockies (2.5%)
While the Rockies should almost always be avoided when they’re at home, it’s reached the point where they should be targeted when they’re on the road, at least against righties. Going into Thursday, the Rockies had a 64 wRC+ and 24.8 percent strikeout rate against righties, which ranked worst and sixth worst, respectively. You could make the case to use any pitcher against them, but Stripling has been better than most pitchers this year-albeit mostly out of a relief role. In his two starts, though, he’s struck out 12 over 9 1/3 innings while allowing just two runs. He may not pitch deep enough to get a quality start if your league uses those, but a win and close to 10 strikeouts aren’t out of the question.
Thursday, May 24
Ivan Nova (PIT) @ Cincinnati Reds (20.8%)
Like Wheeler, Nova is not coming off the best stretch of starts. He’s allowed four or more runs in three straight, lasting a combined 12 1/3 innings with a 9:4 strikeout to walk ratio. That said, despite his 5.01 ERA, he still has a 4.26 FIP and 3.85 xFIP for the year thanks to a .321 BABIP against, 66.3 percent strand rate, and 15.7 percent home run per fly ball rate (The last one, though, is actually right in line with his career rate, so his FIP is likely more indicative of what to expect going forward). He’ll face off against a Reds team that had an 87 wRC+ against righties going into Thursday, the seventh-lowest mark in the majors.
Friday, May 25
Clayton Richard (SD) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (6.1%)
Richard, meanwhile, is coming off arguably his best start of the season. He struck out a season-high 10 batters when he faced the Cardinals on Sunday and has struck out 18 over his past two starts. The Dodgers, unfortunately, don’t strike out that often against lefties-22 percent strikeout rate going into Thursday, 12th lowest-but they do struggle offensively on the whole. Their wRC+ of 83 against lefties was fifth lowest entering Thursday, meaning Richard should be able to take advantage, especially as they mire in their slump.
Saturday, May 26
Ian Kennedy (KC) @ Texas Rangers (11.8%)
There were a few possibilities for Saturday’s choice-Jack Flaherty, Tyler Mahle, Wade LeBlanc, Tyler Anderson, or even Zack Wheeler again-but none of them have as good of a matchup as Kennedy. Going into Thursday, the Rangers against righties had a 26.4 percent strikeout rate and 80 wRC+, which ranked third and fourth lowest in the majors. That was before last night, when they allowed James Shields to strike out eight hitters over 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball. Kennedy is not a worse pitcher than Shields (even if his ERA is actually higher). Kennedy sports a 21.3 percent strikeout rate to go along with a 4.46 FIP and 4.34 xFIP, meaning he should be able to take care of the Rangers handily.
Sunday, May 27
Trevor Cahill (OAK) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (13.7%)
Honestly, I’m a little disappointed in myself for picking a pitcher twice in a week for the third consecutive week now. Really, though, I’m disappointed in the fantasy community for leaving quality pitchers like Cahill freely available and owned in under 30 percent of leagues. I’ve already discussed his merits, but it’s worth mentioning the Diamondbacks’ shortcomings. Diamondbacks hitters against righties have managed a 77 wRC+ and have struck out in 25.3 percent of plate appearances, which rank third and fourth worst in the majors, respectively.
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Brian Reiff is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.
