After a brief one-week hiatus, we’re back with our weekly addition of the fantasy baseball trade chart. My week off WAS great, thanks so much for asking.
During my vacation with the family in Disney World, I was able to execute several non-fantasy baseball trades, some of which worked out in my favor, some of which did not:
1) I traded my wife one solo ride on Avatar in exchange for three trips with both kids on the Teacups: Grade: A (Seriously, if you go to Disney World, head over to Animal Kingdom and ride Avatar. It is legit.)
2) I traded my daughter two rides on It’s a Small World in exchange for one ride on Space Mountain: Grade: D- (Why does It’s a Small World still have such a big line? Seriously, people – you could be flying over the entire world or driving around a racetrack.)
3) I traded one request for Mickey Ears ice cream in exchange for chocolate milk shakes, where I was able to procure the following for myself:
Grade: A+ (Also, thanks to this milkshake, my son finally tried bacon and now requests it at every meal. Relax, I made sure the part he ate wasn’t dripped in bourbon. Father of the year.)
4) Finally, I traded being able to move my neck for the next week in exchange for ease of moving through the various parks by carrying my four-year-old on my shoulders for a week. Grade: B (Worth it. But does anyone have a heating pad I can borrow?)
Anyway, we’re back to the real trades that matter and with the extra week off, there’s been a whole lotta movement. Let’s jump right in. Here is your fantasy baseball trade chart for Week 5.
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The Injury Movers
With two weeks off, there are a number of players whose value rises and falls with injury news. Freddie Freeman, who was hit by a pitch on his wrist just before Week 3’s trade chart dropped, is obviously fine and returns to his pre-injury value. Nelson Cruz, Xander Bogaerts, and Delino DeShields have returned from their respective injuries and disabled list stints, and see their trade values rise with their returns. And every day that passes is one day closer to Madison Bumgarner‘s return and he continues to inch back toward his pre-injury value.
Unfortunately, we’ve also seen a number of players lose value due to injury. Wil Myers strained his oblique muscle on a swing, which usually portends a lengthy absence, and considering this is Myers’ second DL stint of the year already, I’m getting a little concerned that we might be looking at one of those cursed years for the big guy.
Other hitters losing value include Yasiel Puig, who sustained a litany of injuries to his lower half that caused a DL stint. Although Puig’s performance has been dreadful this year, given the state of the Dodgers’ roster, he’s likely in no danger of losing his job when he returns. The news isn’t quite as benign with Byron Buxton, who hit the disabled list with migraine problems only to have an issue with his toe. There’s no exact timetable for his return and he was playing terribly, so you’d be hard-pressed to trade him for anything remotely decent. And although I’m sure we’ll see Adam Eaton again this year, it does not sound like it will be anytime soon.
As for pitchers, Robbie Ray sustained a Grade 2 oblique strain which should likely mean an absence of a month or more. Ray has put up elite strikeout numbers this year but had been maddeningly inconsistent so far, so his owners can at least enjoy the lack of agita they’ll need to deal with for a few weeks. And Johnny Cueto continues to dominate and then be scratched with previously undisclosed injuries. This one is elbow inflammation, a vague diagnosis that leaves fantasy owners without a firm timetable. It is particularly ominous that Cueto will be having multiple opinions on the elbow, including one from Dr. James Andrews. Trade for either of these two at your own risk.
And of course, there was another potentially serious injury to a major player on Wednesday night, and that was Jacob deGrom‘s hyperextended right elbow. Look, it’s the Mets, so you knew a potentially devastating injury was only a matter of time. As of this writing, there’s no timetable for deGrom, and it’s certainly possible that he misses as little as a couple of weeks. But a Mets beat writer tweeted out that J.J. Putz missed five weeks and Lucas Duda missed three weeks with the injury. Again, the value placed on him at this point is entirely speculative, and you shouldn’t be trading him or trading for him. But, if you absolutely had to, I’d expect him to miss roughly a month, which is the midway point between Putz’s and Duda’s lost time, and he is valued as such.
The Performance Movers
I can no longer deny the greatness of Gerrit Cole. He’s clearly a top-10 fantasy pitcher with the Astros. He leads MLB in strikeout percentage at 39.4%, his ERA is backed up by both his FIP and xFIP, and he’s throwing his off-speed pitches more, as everyone hoped he would. Buckle up for a fantastic season. Other pitchers making major moves up in value include Charlie Morton (who should probably be higher and will continue to rise), Patrick Corbin (hitters simply cannot hit that slider), and Blake Snell (look what happens when you stop walking people!). All should continue to rise if they show that their success is not fluky, as I’d expect.
Some outfielders take leaps in value with their fine early-season performances. A.J. Pollock looks about as locked in as any hitter in baseball, and though he’s selling out for power right now (43.2% fly ball percentage, 22% strikeout percentage), he’s managing to keep his batting average in check and running at every opportunity. Tommy Pham sometimes has vision issues and misses games here and there, but he is essentially the same player – if not better – as the 2017 version of himself when he does play. And Lorenzo Cain is playing his leadoff role to perfection, with an outstanding 16% walk rate, a .392 OBP, and eight steals. He also has a career-best 14.8% HR/FB rate (8.6% career) playing in Miller Park, so more homers should be coming.
Other performance risers include Ronald Acuna, who looks utterly comfortable in the big leagues, and Mitch Haniger, who, quite simply, looks awesome (Sidenote: during a preseason AMA session on Reddit, a user got VERY mad at me for not giving Haniger enough credit, so much so that I accused him of actually BEING Haniger. He continues to try to yell at me throughout most days, which is weird, because I figured Mitch Haniger should be preparing for and playing in baseball games, no? I wish Haniger much success but wish he’d stop bugging me!).
As always, there are some who lose value, including Jose Altuve, who has been just fine but may be doing the whole George Springer “I don’t need to steal bases thing.” Mike Trout is in a league unto himself, and there’s little separating Altuve from that next group, including the incredible Mookie Betts.
Some pitchers seeing their values drop include Yu Darvish (I still expect him to figure this out but come on, man), Chris Archer (throw your changeup a bit more and ask for a trade out of the AL East), and Carlos Carrasco (not loving the major drop in strikeout rate, though his drop is more about the strong performances of those who were previously behind him). Not too much to get worked up about here, however. Luke Weaver’s drop, however, is more concerning, though there’s no reason to think his drastic increase in walk rate is more than a blip on the radar.
As for hitters, Alex Bregman appears to really love slow starts, Justin Upton is reminding us why he was a boring mid-round selection before this year, and Ian Desmond is trying so hard to best his abysmal ground ball rate from last year. You’re in Coors Field, man. Get a little loft under the ball.
That’s all we have for Week 5. Happy trading!
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
