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Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: 5/7 – 5/13

Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: 5/7 – 5/13

Somehow Week 6 of the Fantasy Baseball season is already upon us. We outlasted the snow, we ignored the alluring small sample size noises, we survived the four-week delay to Ronald Acuna’s MLB career – we made it, folks. Still, that doesn’t mean we’re completely in the clear. There are still many complex decisions that have to be made with struggling pitchers we were once told to trust. So, can you lock a Luis Castillo, Danny Duffy, or Jon Gray into your lineup for a pair of starts next week? Let’s get into it.

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Don’t Think Twice

Stephen Strasburg (5/7 @SD, 5/12 @ARI)
Carlos Martinez (5/7 vs. MIN, 5/13 @SD)
Aaron Nola (5/8 vs. SF, 5/13 vs. NYM)
Luis Severino (5/8, vs. BOS, 5/13 vs. OAK)

Widely-Owned Options

Jacob deGrom (5/7 @CIN, 5/13 @PHI)
According to Mickey Callaway, deGrom is expected to make his next scheduled start against the Reds after exiting his start Wednesday versus the Braves with an elbow injury. This came after he was reportedly going to miss a month. We should know for sure before lineup lock on Monday. If deGrom is good to go – you’re putting him in there.

Sean Manaea (5/7 vs. HOU, 5/12 @NYY)
Well, it finally happened. Sean Manaea had a bad start. His ERA now sits at an embarrassing 1.63 after giving up four earned runs to the Mariners on Thursday night. Obviously the .167 BABIP still has quite a bit more regressing ahead of it, and going to Yankee Stadium is never ideal, but Manaea’s done enough to earn the benefit of the doubt.

James Paxton (5/8 @TOR, 5/13 @DET)
He struck out 16 in his last start against Oakland, bringing his season total to 60 strikeouts over 38.2 innings. He’s also one of only seven qualified pitchers with a zone contact rate below 80%. Throwing strikes that opponents can’t hit is a great way to be successful.

Blake Snell (5/8 vs. ATL, 5/13 @BAL)
Over Snell’s last four starts, the sophomore phenom has pitched to a 1.98 ERA, 2.28 FIP, and struck out 28.0% of opposing batters. Most important of all? The man who allowed 4.11 free passes per nine last season walked only two of the 100 hitters he faced across that 27.1 inning span. Atlanta has baseball’s best wRC+ versus LHP (138), but I’d roll with Snell regardless.

Kyle Hendricks (5/7 vs. MIA, 5/13 vs. CWS)
Hendricks is kind of just doing what he’s always done so far in 2018. While the strikeout numbers are underwhelming, the groundball rate is up above 50%, his 27% soft contact rate puts him seventh among qualified pitchers, and his 84.8 mph average exit velocity is the sixth-lowest rate of all SP with at least 80 batted ball events. In short, he’s been fine. Entering Thursday, Miami was dead-last in baseball in wOBA, wRC+, and ISO. Fine will suffice.

Zack Godley (5/8 @LAD, 5/13 vs. WAS)
For a pitcher with as low a zone rate as Godley possesses (38.9%), you’d love to see a higher chase rate, but, really, Godley’s been exactly who he was in his break-out 2017 season through his first six starts of this year. A 3.21 FIP across 34.1 innings is more than enough for me to buy-in with starts against the injury-ravaged Dodgers and Nationals on the schedule.

Dylan Bundy (5/8 vs. KC, 5/13 vs. TB)
He’s been roughed up a bit as of late, specifically surrendering five home runs in his past two outings, but this is a rare week with some win expectancy for Bundy. The Rays and Royals both sit in the bottom third of the league in home runs, Kansas City just a single long ball ahead of Detroit for the fewest in the American League. Both games are at Camden. If he can’t pull out a “W” in Week 6, I don’t know when the next one’s coming along.

Michael Fulmer (5/7 @TEX, 5/13 vs. SEA)
Fulmer was made for two-start weeks in that, well, he’s the most boring pitcher with a 2.80 ERA you could imagine from a fantasy perspective. Two starts means roughly twelve innings which might produce nine strikeouts. That’s alright. You’ll take that alongside solid ratios, but there’s nothing sexy about this high-floor pitching option.

Danny Duffy (5/8 @BAL, 5/13 @CLE)
This is “Last Chance Station” for Duffy. Baltimore is not a strong offensive team. They’re aggressive – they had the sixth-highest swing rate in baseball heading into play on Thursday, yet those swings don’t often result in anything. The Orioles have MLB’s lowest contact rate (72.4%) and highest swinging strike rate (13.0%). This is a strikeout pitcher’s dream matchup. As for Cleveland, only four teams have more LHB plate appearances against LHPs. Considering Duffy’s career .243 wOBA allowed to lefties, that should play right into the southpaw’s hand.

In the Danger Zone

Dallas Keuchel (5/7 @OAK, 5/13 vs. TEX)
The most direct issue facing Keuchel next week is that Oakland happens to be very strong versus left-handed pitchers. They’ve hit them to the sixth-best wRC+ in baseball so far in 2018. Beyond that, Keuchel’s problems are more internal. For as much as it might not seem like a monumental shift, Keuchel has not pitched like the best groundball pitcher in baseball through six starts, he’s merely been above average at inducing grounders. I mean, a 56.7% groundball rate would be good enough in a vacuum, but the drop from last year’s 66.8% figure can be felt in the eight home runs the veteran has surrendered this season. Going back to 2016, no qualified starter has a higher HR/FB ratio than Keuchel’s 18.9% mark. That’s not bad luck – its the cost of not having the natural stuff to survive up in the strike zone. You could argue losing an incremental bit of groundball rate shouldn’t affect a pitcher’s overall value too much, yet, when one of every five fly balls allowed is a home run, I’d argue differently.

Chase Anderson (5/8 vs. CLE, 5/13 @COL)
Even before putting up huge offensive numbers against the Blue Jays in a doubleheader on Thursday, the Indians had been rolling. Their 121 wRC+ across the prior 14 days entering play yesterday afternoon was the fourth-best mark in the league over that frame of time. So, that’s Anderson’s opposition in the start he doesn’t have to make at Coors Field. The .213 BABIP and 90.0% strand rate will regress quickly in Week 6. I’d find cover before the blow-up takes place.

Jon Gray (5/8 vs. LAA, 5/13 vs. MIL)
Gray has generally held his own having to pitch in Colorado, a 3.50 career FIP and respectable 1.03 HR/9 validating that statement. Still, it’s never ideal to test Coors Field twice in one week, especially with two average to slightly above average lineups coming into town. It also might not be the time to trust Gray overall. Though the ERA and FIP differentiation and 65.2% strand rate would suggest normalization in the near future, Gray has struggled immensely in the most crucial situations this season: with runners on. You’d assume with a LOB% like that, Gray would be the victim of some hard luck with RISP, but that just hasn’t been the case. In 46 plate appearances with men in scoring position, opponents have only a .250 BABIP. However, more concerning than what’s happened on the balls in play is the propensity of them. Gray’s strikeout rate falls from 31.4% with no one on to an ugly 13.6% from the stretch. More contact in clutch spots is usually a recipe for disaster – most assuredly at altitude.

Marcus Stroman (5/8 vs. SEA, 5/13 vs. BOS)
Even following what was without question his best outing of 2018, Week 6 is not the time to again start believing in Stroman. Despite walking only a single batter, despite allowing just two runs over seven innings, Stroman still surrendered three barrelled balls against Minnesota on Wednesday, with the Twins registering a 50.0% hard contact rate overall on the afternoon. The hard contact has been inescapable for Stroman this season. Cole Hamels is the lone qualified pitcher stopping Stroman’s 48.1% hard contact rate from being the worst in baseball. Mike Leake’s 93.9 mph average exit velocity also plays a similar role to that of Hamels. Now, go look up Boston’s numbers against right-handed pitching. I’ll wait. Because, I assure you, when you gaze upon those insane statistics, you’ll be as down on Stroman as I am.

Jarlin Garcia (5/7 @CHC, 5/12 vs. ATL)
A 1.09 ERA across 33 innings is quite an accomplishment. No one is trying to take that away. However, simultaneously leading the National League in lowest BABIP (.151) and highest strand rate (95.2%) is less commendable. I’m really not sure how to get excited about Garcia. He’s got a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and is inside the league’s top-15 in barrels allowed per batted ball event. Also, like the aforementioned and also left-handed Blake Snell, Garcia draws the Braves next week – the best team at hitting LHPs in baseball by wRC+. Unlike Snell, I don’t see the upside outweighing the risk. Garcia is more than due for a bad outing. Let that particular start take place on your bench.

Luis Castillo (5/8 vs. NYM, 5/13 @LAD)
Let us momentarily dissect Castillo’s most recent and best start of the season. On Wednesday, the sophomore took to the mound against Milwaukee. He would only allow two runs over six innings. Great. However, he’d also surrender nine hits in the contest, making a 93.0% strand rate not a perk, but a necessity. Now, maybe Castillo was due for a little luck with runners on, but if your best start of the season still involves 10 baserunners – I’m probably going to hold off on declaring everything’s fine again. Castillo is also still touting a massive .477 wOBA against left-handed hitters in 2018, something that might pose a problem in Los Angeles. Though the Dodgers will be down shortstop Corey Seager, their LHBs have combined to post the third-best wOBA in baseball off right-handed pitching. Let’s give Castillo another week to prove 2017 wasn’t an aberration.

Streamers Under 50%

Tyson Ross (5/7 vs. WAS, 5/12 vs. STL)
Sean Newcomb (5/8 @TB, 5/13 @MIA)
Drew Pomeranz (5/8 @NYY, 5/13 @TOR)
Fernando Romero (5/7 @STL, 5/13 @LAA)
Walker Buehler (5/8 vs. ARI, 5/13 vs. CIN)

This is a strong week for streaming options in 10-man formats. Newcomb and Pomeranz always bring some strikeout upside of the left-handed persuasion and the former has the matchups, particularly on the 13th against Miami, to make you salivate. For the rookie Romero, he impressed in a big way in his MLB debut versus the Jays, casually sitting at 95-98 mph with his fastball and generating groundball after groundball. Still, Ross has to be the top option heading into Week 6. Remember the guy in 2015 who was one of the best pitchers in baseball? Yeah, that guy sort of looks like he exists again. Ross is sporting a 2.82 FIP to go along with a 10.09 K/9 rate over his first six starts of 2018 and Statcast is in love with him. The only five pitchers with over 70 batted ball events to have a lower barrels per plate appearance percentage than Ross are Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, Carlos Martinez, Jacob deGrom, and Jake Arrieta. Not terrible company to keep.

Streamers Under 25%

Jeremy Hellickson (5/8 @SD, 5/13 @ARI)
Slim pickings, I know. This is most definitely a floor play in a two-start week. Now, to his credit, Hellickson has looked decent in his first four outings of 2018. He’s got a solid 3.00 ERA and 3.73 FIP combination and, as has been relatively consistent throughout his career, he’s not assisting the opposition with many free passes. He also draws the Padres next week – the lifeblood of deep-league streaming. San Diego has just a .295 wOBA this season as they’ve struck out in an MLB-high 26.9% of their plate appearances. If this isn’t a point you can trust Hellickson, you might as well ignore him for the remainder of the year.

Not Unless You’re Desperate

Daniel Mengden
Jose Urena
Homer Bailey
Clayton Richard
Matt Moore
Chris Tillman
Derek Holland
Lucas Giolito
Zach Eflin
Brett Anderson

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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.

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