Week 8 of the Fantasy Baseball season is shaping up to be pretty cut and dry. Of the 33 pitchers scheduled to make two starts next week, 21 are less than 25% owned in Yahoo! leagues. The other 12 are all solid enough where there should be little hesitation in considering whether or not you’re locking them in. You can thank Cole Hamels’ neck injury for wiping out his two-start week and gifting us a slate without a high-ownership gas can. Still, the question of which of those 21 streamable pitchers can be trusted remains. That’s where I come in. Let’s break it all down.
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Don’t Think Twice
Chris Sale (5/22 @TB, 5/27 vs. ATL)
Gerrit Cole (5/22 vs. SF, 5/27 @CLE)
Gio Gonzalez (5/21 vs. SD, 5/27 @MIA)
Widely-Owned Options
Miles Mikolas (5/21 vs. KC, 5/27 @PIT)
Mikolas pitches like an All-Star from 2003. I mean this in both a positive and negative sense. On the plus side, there’s the obvious skill involved in maintaining a 2.63 ERA, 51.3% groundball rate, and walking just 0.88 opponents per nine. On the other end of the spectrum, there’s Mikolas’ non-existent strikeout rate – something not likely to improve against the Royals who have struck out the least of any team in baseball entering play Thursday. The ratio stabilization outweighs those concerns, though.
Masahiro Tanaka (5/21 @TEX, 5/27 vs. LAA)
This would be the closest thing we have to a question mark about Week 8 viability, but that’s kind of just the Tanaka experience at this point. He’s given up a home run in seven of his nine starts this season, yet five of those nine have turned out to be quality outings. Like everything else Tanaka-related, the matchups are a bit of a mixed bag too. Leaving Yankee Stadium to take on the Rangers? Yes, please. The Angels, owners of May’s second-best wRC+ (127), in New York? Not great.
Walker Buehler (5/21 vs. COL, 5/27 vs. SD)
Buehler is coming off the first poor start of his MLB career, however, even in a less than stellar showing against the Marlins, the rookie still managed to strike out seven batters in only five innings. He should get back on track next week, as the Rockies and Padres hold the not so delightful distinction of both sitting inside the top-five in strikeout rate while also ranking bottom-five in wRC+. That’s probably not what they were going for in 2018.
J.A. Happ (5/22 vs. LAA, 5/27 @PHI)
As everyone is talking about Happ’s sharp uptick in strikeouts (which they should be), something that’s gone a little under the radar is his sudden emergence as an extreme groundball pitcher. Happ’s groundball rate has risen in each of the past five seasons, now sitting at a nice, round 50.0% after nine starts in 2018. If not for some home runs issues, Happ’s value would be far more appreciated.
Jose Berrios (5/21 vs. DET, 5/27 @SEA)
It’s been a season of extremes for Berrios. After starting the year with four immaculate outings, the Twins’ right-hander came back down to Earth. Hard. Berrios would surrender 18 earned runs over his next four appearances, the latter three proving very concerning to fantasy owners with the 23-year-old mustering just a meager four strikeouts across 14.1 innings. However, as quickly as success left, it came back. Berrios allowed only two hits over 7.1 innings on Tuesday versus St. Louis – striking out 10. You never really know which guy will show himself, but the upside is too great to ignore.
Jameson Taillon (5/22 @CIN, 5/27 vs. STL)
Taillon is similar to the aforementioned Mikolas in that he’s a little boring from a fantasy perspective, yet, for the most part, that’s a good thing. The lack of strikeouts keeps the ceiling from being too high, but the floor is so structurally sound, you’re okay with it. It’s fine. He’s fine. The matchups are fine – specifically the Cardinals. St. Louis, coming into play Thursday, has managed just a .296 wOBA across the past 14 days. That’s the fourth-worst mark in baseball. Sets up well for Taillon.
Kevin Gausman (5/22 @CWS, 5/27 @TB)
Now is not the time for recency bias. Yes, Gausman got a little roughed up in his start last night against Boston, but that’s pretty much what the Red Sox have been doing to every RHP in 2018. Look beyond the one outing. Coming into yesterday, Gausman had compiled an impressive 2.14 ERA over his previous 42 innings pitched. That stretch says much more about the quality of his campaign so far.
Streamers Under 50%
Nick Pivetta (5/21 vs. ATL, 5/27 vs. TOR)
Jake Faria (5/22 vs. BOS, 5/27 vs. BAL)
As baseball moves closer and closer to being about the three true outcomes, pitchers who adhere to the modern principles of the game should not only be celebrated but, well, owned in all leagues available. To be fair, most are. In fact, of the seven qualified starting pitchers in baseball who are striking out over 10.0 opponents per nine, walking fewer than 2.50 batters per nine, and surrendering under 1.00 home runs per nine, six are more than owned, they’re household names. That list includes Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Patrick Corbin, Justin Verlander, Luis Severino, and Noah Syndergaard. So, who is the seventh mystery pitcher? Nick Pivetta. It’s quite the contrast when juxtaposed to a rocky rookie season in 2017. Last year, Pivetta allowed RHBs to hit 20 long balls in just 67.0 innings – leading to a .409 wOBA that was the highest of any of the 130 pitchers to throw 60-plus frames to righties. Flash forward to 2018 and Pivetta is almost unhittable to those of the right-handed persuasion. The change can be most heavily credited to his slider. Right-handed opponents slugged .664 off Pivetta’s fastball last season and while they’re still combining to slug .500 off the pitch through May 17th this year, Pivetta’s throwing it far less often, instead relying on his slider. RHBs have a slugging percentage of just .044 off the offering over his first nine starts, as the pitch also has a 23.0% whiff rate. It’s time to start taking the sophomore seriously. It’s also time to add him wherever he’s still on the waiver wire.
Streamers Under 25%
Trevor Cahill (5/22 vs. SEA, 5/27 vs. ARI)
Jordan Lyles (5/21 @WAS, 5/27 @LAD)
Though only one of these men is coming off an outing where they carried a perfect game into the eighth, I’ll have to go with Cahill over Lyles this week due to scheduling. Not only does Lyles have both of his starts on the road next week, but each is against a team slowly getting back to full health. Still, Lyles’ recent run should not just be brushed off as small sample magic. His curve ball is for real, therefore the strikeouts are legitimate. That’s really all it takes to get on the fantasy radar. Now, back to Cahill – a strikeout master in his own right. The veteran has struck out 32 opponents over his five starts in 2018, a skill he’s paired with an elite groundball rate of 61.4%. Really, the only way Cahill’s gotten himself into trouble this season is the long ball. Like many pitchers who rely on a near negative launch angle, when hitters are able to elevate the righty, they tend to do so with great effectiveness – something a 96.7mph exit velocity on fly balls and line drives can vouch for. However, those batted ball events tend to be few and far between. It’s also not as if driving the ball has been a strength of the Diamondbacks as of late. Arizona, over the past two weeks, ranks dead-last in wOBA at .244. They will be getting Jake Lamb back soon, yet, the loss of A.J. Pollock kind of cancels that out. It’s been a mess in the desert and look for Cahill to take advantage.
Not Unless You’re Desperate
Matt Koch
Zack Wheeler
Mike Leake
Jhoulys Chacin
Matt Harvey
Andrew Cashner
Ian Kennedy
Brandon McCarthy
Bartolo Colon
German Marquez
Jason Vargas
James Shields
Jason Hammel
Josh Tomlin
Doug Fister
Hector Santiago
Brandon Woodruff
Ryan Carpenter
Elieser Hernandez
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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.
