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Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: 5/28 – 6/3

Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: 5/28 – 6/3

June. Next week, Week 9 of the Fantasy Baseball season, will represent the start of June. The year is truly flying past us. The weather in the northeast is in the high 80’s. We’re starting to see some separation in the divisional races. The league’s best hitters don’t want to participate in the Home Run Derby – summer has finally arrived. With it, it brings an extremely high-end crop of two-start pitchers. So, who are you trusting to lead your team into June? Let’s break it all down.

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Don’t Think Twice

Justin Verlander (5/28 @NYY, 6/2 vs. BOS)
Jacob deGrom (5/28 @ATL, 6/2 vs. CHC)
Charlie Morton (5/29 @NYY, 6/3 vs. BOS)
Kenta Maeda (5/29 vs. PHI, 6/3 @COL)
Gio Gonzalez (5/28 @BAL, 6/2 @ATL)
Mike Clevinger (5/29 vs. CWS, 6/3 @MIN)
Jake Arrieta (5/29 @LAD, 6/3 @SF)
Jon Lester (5/29 @PIT, 6/3 @NYM)

Widely-Owned Options

David Price (5/28 vs. TOR, 6/2 @HOU)
Coming off his best two-start run since his first two outings of the season, Price is definitely trending in the right direction. Not only did the lefty allow just three earned runs across 15 innings of work, but he did so while striking out 17 opponents – a season-high nine occurring Wednesday against Tampa Bay. Going into Houston is not ideal, yet Price has earned admission back into everyone’s circle of trust.

Michael Wacha (5/29 @MIL, 6/3 vs. PIT)
Despite giving up a 41.4% hard contact rate, the sixth-highest rate among qualified pitchers, Wacha has seen exceptional results since mid-April. In fact, over his last 41.2 innings, Wacha has pitched to a 1.94 ERA with a 2.69 FIP. The quality contact might cause some damage in the future, but he’s pitched too well recently to disparage him in any way.

Luke Weaver (5/28 @MIL, 6/2 vs. PIT)
Weaver’s 3.51 FIP looks a whole lot more desirable than his 4.31 ERA and there’s truth to the former’s status. The 24-year-old has had a bit of batted ball unluckiness at the worst possible times through his first 10 starts, seeing batters hit to a .355 average on balls in play with runners in scoring position. Hence, the 69.4% strand rate. When his fortune turns, we’ll again be reminded of the promise Weaver possesses – the reason his ADP caught so much helium back in March.

Chris Archer (5/28 @OAK, 6/2 @SEA)
Apparently, Archer wasn’t broken beyond repair. After struggling throughout March and April, the RHP has turned things around in May, posting a 2.76 ERA across 32.2 innings. His last two starts specifically, against formidable foes in the Red Sox and Angels, Archer surrendered just a single earned run – allowing only six hits over 12.2 frames. Now, with Nate Eovaldi set to come off the DL next week, there’s some question if Archer will start Monday or Tuesday, yet, either way, his two-start week seems secure.

Jake Junis (5/28 vs. MIN, 6/3 vs. OAK)
Junis has obviously benefitted from a bit of luck in 2018. Playing for an American League Central squad aside (though pitching against Detroit three times sure is nice), Junis’ .253 BABIP is one of the twenty-lowest qualified marks in baseball and his 84.3% strand rate sits as the league’s 13th-highest figure. Still, he’s a viable two-start pitcher due to his high floor. He’s a league-average strikeout guy, he keeps his walks down, and he’s given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his 10 outings. He’s not a sexy play, but he’ll be a solid contributor in Week 9.

Michael Fulmer (5/29 vs. LAA, 6/3 vs. TOR)
Another high floor pitcher, Fulmer’s value is not found in strikeouts, rather suppression. The 25-year-old simply keeps the ball in the park. Even with home run rates skyrocketing the past few seasons, since 2016, Fulmer has surrendered only 0.83 long balls per nine – the second-lowest mark of the 85 qualified pitchers across that span. That number falls to 0.78 per nine when pitching at Comerica – where both his starts next week will be.

Rick Porcello (5/29 vs. TOR, 6/3 @HOU)
He’s come back down to Earth after a phenomenal start to 2018, allowing 16 earned runs over his last four starts, but you’re still going to use Porcello next week. The veteran has worked into the sixth in all of his first 10 outings of the season, collecting seven quality starts along the way. He’s a high floor pitcher with enough ceiling to make you excited. Plus, the win expectancy of pitching for Boston doesn’t hurt.

In the Danger Zone

Dylan Bundy (5/29 vs. WAS, 6/3 vs. NYY)
A 14-strikeout performance doesn’t magically fix every problem. Sure, Bundy looked great Thursday afternoon, going the distance and picking up his third win of 2018 against the White Sox. However, the level of competition must be factored in. Chicago entered yesterday afternoon with the league’s second-highest chase rate at 33.6% – they are the perfect foil if strikeouts are the goal and Bundy took advantage. Still, it’s not as if he escaped the start completely free of error. Bundy served up a three-run home run to Jose Rondon, the 14th long ball he’s surrendered this season. He’s just been getting hit hard lately. Plain and simple. In fact, of the 77 pitchers with over 150 batted ball events this year, Bundy has allowed the second-most barrels per plate appearance, trailing only Marco Estrada. That’s not the company you want to be keeping. He also doesn’t have an enviable schedule in Week 9, with both the Nationals and Yankees visiting Camden. You might have your hand forced in deep formats, but I’d be avoiding him in a 10-man league.

Felix Hernandez (5/29 vs. TEX, 6/3 vs. TB)
Here’s a list of qualified pitchers with a FIP over 5.00 who are striking out fewer than 8.00 per nine: Danny Duffy, Homer Bailey, Chase Anderson, Lucas Giolito, Marco Estrada, Bartolo Colon, Jake Faria, Julio Teheran, and Felix Hernandez. Yuck. Only two of those men, aside from Hernandez, are over 50% owned Yahoo! leagues, yet, at the very least, both Anderson and Teheran addicts can cling to dishonest ERAs. Two of the others mentioned (Bailey and Colon) represent the only two pitchers with a higher zone contact rate than Hernandez’s 92.1% figure. I’ve said it before in this very article, the dream is dead. Stop rostering Hernandez for name value alone. Its over.

CC Sabathia (5/29 vs. HOU, 6/3 @BAL)
A lot of what was said above about King Felix can be applied here too. Sabathia just doesn’t have a whole lot of fantasy value left. Sure, there’s something to be said in a real-life capacity for knowing a guy can take the ball every fifth day and give you a reasonable performance, but that thought process doesn’t transfer to our virtual game. In six of his nine starts in 2018, Sabathia has worked five innings or fewer. Because of that, and his falling velocity, the veteran has also struck out four or fewer opponents in two thirds of his outings. Specific to his last three games, Sabathia has allowed 13 runs in 13.1 innings, surrendering four home runs and seven free passes along the way. Where’s the upside? What’s the point?

Aaron Sanchez (5/28 @BOS, 6/3 @DET)
Really, all I need to point out here is that, coming into Thursday night’s action, the Red Sox pair a league-best .353 wOBA against right-handed pitching with baseball’s second-lowest strikeout rate within the split. However, I feel it is my duty to address the fact that Sanchez has been averaging 21.3 pitches per inning over his most recent four outings and, understandably, he has not reached the sixth in any of those contests. The walks are just killing him. Only Lucas Giolito has been more generous than Sanchez in terms of walks per nine, with the Toronto RHP giving up a disgusting 5.53 this season. It’s not even as if Sanchez has been getting destroyed in 2018, either. His ability to keep the ball on the ground has mostly prevented opponents from taking him deep, generally limiting big innings. Yet, it’s hard to get excited about someone with this level of control issues. It’s not time to cut bait, but I’d definitely be keeping Sanchez on the bench for Week 9.

Streamers Under 50%

Caleb Smith (5/28 @SD, 6/2 @ARI)
Tyson Ross (5/29 vs. MIA, 6/3 vs. CIN)
Tyler Chatwood (5/28 @PIT, 6/2 @NYM)
Vince Velasquez (5/28 @LAD, 6/2 @SF)
Jeremy Hellickson (5/29 @BAL, 6/3 @ATL)

Let’s begin with the weekly disclaimer that Tyson Ross should by now be far from “streamable” in any format. He’s been amazing. Add him. Now, with that done, let’s get on to a fresher face: Caleb Smith. Smith has been racking up the strikeouts for the Marlins this season, registering 65 through his first 49.1 innings of 2018. That alone is enough reason to get excited about owning the 26-year-old, but the good times don’t stop there. It might be impossible to hand-pick a better set of matchups in Week 9 than Smith finds himself projected for. Though much of Arizona’s problems in May have stemmed from right-handed pitching (and, well, injuries), they’ve just been bad offensively in general. No team comes close to their abysmal 51 wRC+ in the month of May, but, if we had to pinpoint the team that did come the nearest, it’d be the Padres at 78. Each team is striking out well above average as of late and make for tantalizing opponents. Look for Smith to have a huge week.

Streamers Under 25%

Marco Gonzales (5/28 vs. TEX, 6/2 vs. TB)
Dan Straily (5/29 @SD, 6/3 @ARI)
Kyle Gibson (5/29 @KC, 6/3 vs. CLE)
Matt Boyd (5/28 vs. LAA, 6/2 vs. TOR)

Let’s hold up Gonzales’ season so far and see how many boxes he checks. Pedigree? He’s a former first-round selection from 2013. Results? Gonzales has held his opponent scoreless in his most recent two starts, lowering his FIP to a very swell 3.22 for the season. Upside? He’s struck out 8.27 per nine. Floor? He’s walked only 1.86 per nine over his ten outings this year and, with a 24.5% fly ball rate, he’s held batters to just five long balls in total. Matchups? Well, entering Thursday, the Rangers possessed the American League’s highest strikeout rate versus LHPs at a lofty 26.9%. Is there anything left the man needs to prove?

Not Unless You’re Desperate

Chad Bettis
Ivan Nova
Chad Kuhl
Matt Koch
Steven Matz
Brandon McCarthy
Domingo German
Alex Cobb
Lance Lynn
Doug Fister
Adam Plutko
Brent Suter
Homer Bailey
Eric Lauer
Andrew Suarez
Austin Bibens-Dirkx
Daniel Gossett
Dylan Covey
Nate Eovaldi

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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.

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