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Hitters to Target in Deep Leagues (Fantasy Baseball)

Hitters to Target in Deep Leagues (Fantasy Baseball)

Impatience pops up frequently when scouring the waiver wire for players available in under 10 percent of leagues. While the latest hot hands zoom past that benchmark, laggards often dip into the single digits despite past success or hype.

Yet to circle the bases, two New York middle infielders have fallen by the wayside. Jettisoning them is understandable in a 10- or 12-team mixed league, but deeper gamers should seek a bounce back before the opportunity expires. The other three players have recently enjoyed expanded playing time, and two of them should not renounce the starting role anytime soon.

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Travis Jankowski (OF – SD): 1 Percent Owned
A crowded Padres outfield and nightmarish 2017 turned Travis Jankowski into a total afterthought. Now that he’s spent eight of the last nine games leading off, it’s time to welcome him back to the table.

The speedster entered 2017 drafts with considerable fanfare after stealing 30 bases in 2016. He also batted a paltry .245, which was still a far cry better than last year’s .187 batting average and .213 slugging percentage. Thirteen games into 2018, he’s hitting .349/.429/.512 with two triples, a homer, and three steals. While nobody should expect those gaudy numbers to hold, he has made tangible improvements at the plate.

Previously a “can’t steal first” archetype, Jankowski’s contact rate has skyrocketed from 72.6 to 86.5 percent, as of Sunday. By slashing his outside-swing percentage nearly in half to 12.9, he has cut his swinging-strike rate to 5.0 percent. He has struck out just seven times in 49 plate appearances, a stark upgrade from last year’s 32.2 percentage.

Wil Myers, out with an injured oblique, is still weeks away from returning. Hunter Renfroe can rejoin the Padres sooner, but he’d likely at most supplant the streaking Jankowski against southpaws. Given his career .207 wOBA versus lefties, a platoon role would help him maintain a passable average anyway, so he’d remain a useful steals source in deeper mixed leagues.

Amed Rosario (SS – NYM): 8 Percent Owned
Eighty-one games into his career, Amed Rosario is not a superstar. Oh well, time to give up. The Mets really ought to get Jose Reyes and his 6 wRC+ some more starts instead. (Reyes still having a job remains an organizational embarrassment, but that’s a rant for another day.)

Rosario, a 22-year-old top prospect who batted .328 in Triple-A last season, has quickly found his way to most waiver wires by hitting .243/.273/.322 this season. He’s still searching for his first homer, but more alarmingly has stolen one base in four tries. Although there’s no reason to own him in a smaller mixed league, an 8 percent consensus ownership rate indicated managers in deeper formats have also lost hope.

Despite the brutal start, there’s reason for hope. For starters, he hasn’t even logged 300 career plate appearances. Have some patience. While he’s performing even worse at the plate this year because of non-existent power, Rosario has boosted his line-drive and hard-hit rates while slashing his strikeout percentage. Statcast gives him a .273 xAVG, a mark that would likely keep him employed in deeper leagues if those extra hits yielded a couple steals. While already caught twice, a 29.0 speed score says his blazing speed has not evaporated. There’s still too much upside to leave him unowned in a 15-teamer.

Neil Walker (1B/2B – NYY): 4 Percent Owned
Neil Walker is a career .271/.340/.432 hitter who has belted 76 home runs over the last four seasons despite injury setbacks. The switch-hitter gets to tee away at Yankee Stadium’s miniature right-field wall in a stacked lineup.

He’s hitting .210 with no homers and 10 RBIs.

Like Rosario, there are plenty of leagues where dropping him was justified. Yet the 32-year-old has a proven track record of contributing when healthy. He’s also a slow starter who has registered a career .308 wOBA through April that jumps to .346 after the All-Star break. Despite Gleyber Torres’s emergence, the veteran second baseman is playing regularly against righties-against whom he wields a career .346 wOBA-at first base. It doesn’t show in his overall numbers, but Walker is turning the corner in May by batting 9-for-26 with eight walks and four strikeouts. Even if his power has dissipated, he should eventually attain a few cheap Yankee Stadium homers while leveraging his on-base skills into plenty of runs.

John Hicks (C/1B – DET): 5 Percent Owned
Heading into 2018, John Hicks hit six home runs in 226 career plate appearance. With no better options to replace the injured Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have given the backup catcher a shot at first base. He has belted four home runs with a .288/.321/.521 slash line.

Small-sample warning aside, those numbers are too nice to ignore from someone with catcher eligibility and a 5 percent ownership rate. The 28-year-old should garner much more popularity in two-catcher and AL-only leagues, but perhaps he can force his way into the mainstream picture. It’s easy to cry fluke, but he has at least earned this brief tear with a .376 xwOBA and 25 of 50 batted balls hit at least 95 mph.

Of course, there’s the pesky question of what will become of Hicks’s playing time when Cabrera returns. The easy answer: Play him at designated hitter, where sunk cost Victor Martinez currently maintains a .283 wOBA. There has been no worse hitter in baseball since the start of 2015, so guilt over benching an expensive and previously productive veteran is the only thing keeping the 39-year-old on Detroit’s lineup card. Hicks should force the Tigers to challenge that flawed thinking and see if they have found an unlikely breakout bat.

Wilmer Flores (1B/2B/3B – NYM): 2 Percent Owned
This may prove no more than a short-term recommendation, as Todd Frazier is eligible to return from the disabled list this weekend. If he’s right about only needing the minimal 10 days to recover from a left hamstring strain, Wilmer Flores will quickly slither back to the bench.

This column, however, is written by a cynical Mets fan who sees “10 days” and thinks “Maybe he’ll be back by the All-Star break.” For now, let’s focus on the here and now. The Mets are currently scheduled to face Jaime Garcia and J.A. Happ on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. So even with a healthy Frazier, Flores likely would have spelled Adrian Gonzalez against both Toronto lefties. Yet despite filling the small end of a platoon, the 26-year-old is batting 12-for-43 with five walks and three home runs against same-handed pitchers. He’s probably just a one-week placeholder, but he’d help most fantasy managers if ever given an extended opportunity.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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