We’ve now got a month’s worth of baseball in the books and while some of the statistics begin to stabilize in May you still need to remember that there is variance around every single player and every metric by which you can measure said player. It’s important to watch for trends in their baseball statistics, their batted ball profiles, and their pitch usage, frequency and results. Unconventionally, I’ll use my space this week to make some bold regression takes. Two bold negative regressors, two players you think aren’t as good as they are but will continue to be just as dominant and two players who will not positively regress to their desired output – much to your dismay.

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Two bold negative regression candidates

Xander Bogaerts (SS – BOS): Triple Slash: .412/.426/.745  – GB/LD/FB: 33/28/39%
You’re probably nothing like me when it comes to Xander Bogaerts. I’ve been one of the most outspoken opponents on his potential “next-level” breakout. You see, when not spending most of April on the DL, which I do not fault him for or hold against him, Xander was destroying baseballs. As you can see above he was hitting almost 28% of his batted balls for line drives, and lifting the ball in the air another 40% of the time. If there’s one thing we know for sure about Xander it’s that he’s great at hitting baseballs. Over his career, he’s shown the ability to hit line drives ~21% of the time and put the ball in the air as much as 35% of the time. If there’s a second thing we know for sure about Bogaerts it’s that in terms of home run power, he has it, but it’s nearly solely to the pull field. While in the early going there are some pundits that will say “he’s raised his launch angle,” there’s a large portion of this that’s just small sample size batted ball statistics. I suspect that by the time we round out May he’ll be back nearer his lifetime 20-21% line drive rate and he’ll start to hit more ground balls. You see, the power spike isn’t from some new found power source. He’s not hitting the ball to center field or the opposite field in the air with newly found exit velocity. He’s just barreling a lot of balls at very favorable launch angles early in the season. Listen, I like Xander Bogaerts a whole bunch, but I’m just not willing to believe he’s changed overnight into Mike Trout (see below).

He’s not even experiencing an unreasonable HR per Batted Ball Event spike, he’s just crushing a bunch of doubles, which is bolstering his SLG and ISO in the short term. I’m willing to buy into a little progress in trading some low-value ground balls for balls in the red/grey/black zones which correspond to liners and optimally launched fly balls. I think a final line of .300/.350/.450 with 18-25 HRs is likely where we’ll still see him at the end of the year. Remember the .400+ BABIP on ground balls is going to come back to earth and he’s not pulling the ball in the air with any more frequency than his career norms. If you need reason to believe me on Bogaerts, look back to what I said about Gregory Polanco and selling high on him after his hot start.

Gerrit Cole (SP – HOU): 39.4% K / 5.2% BB / 1.73 ERA
It’s anyone’s guess as to how Gerrit Cole added 200 rpms of spin to his fastball, but that’s not what I’m concerned with.

While it’s great to note that Cole has morphed into a clone of his teammate Justin Verlander’s fastball outcomes (READ: Flyball heavy), it’s unrealistic to expect either to generate the early season success they’ve had in generating mostly poppers to start the year (> 40° launch angles), which do the least amount of damage next to the lowest ground ball bin. The outcomes in the red line drive bin, and grey low drive (fly ball) bin look similar with respect to xwOBA to Justin Verlander’s 2017 season and represent true change and successful change at that. It’s altogether unreasonable to expect that Cole will allow a .000 wOBA (.254 xwOBA) and 0% barrels on balls hit at 24-32°. Something more realistic would be the ~.400-.600 wOBA you saw with Verlander last year. The same sort of disparity exists with Cole’s small sample size outcomes on his curveball balls in play (not shown).

Gerrit Cole should finish the season much closer to the 25% K rate Verlander posted last year, or maybe a tick less given that Verlander’s four-seam offering is superior to Cole’s. I noted this offseason that the thing that hampered Cole’s success the most after his two or three very average offerings (FB, CU, SI) is that he hasn’t been able to control his walks. Obviously, his ERA/FIP/xFIP/DRA/SIERA success will follow his walk rate, but I’ll venture a hunch it comes back to his 6% career average and his ERA will settle somewhere in the mid 3s. This is still a vast improvement over the Pittsburgh version of Cole, but likely not what his owners think they’re holding onto right now.

Honorable Mentions: Jed Lowrie, Mike Moustakas, Matt Davidson, Hanley Ramirez, Francisco Cervelli

Two players who will sustain early success

Javier Baez (2B – CHC): Triple Slash: .280/.333/.630  – GB/LD/FB: 39/27/34%
Javier Baez is a fun hitter to watch. He maintains a sub-6% walk rate, so he puts an awful lot of balls in play. He puts a decent number of balls in the air, and when he hits them he can hammer them to all fields. Where he’s progressed as a hitter this year is that he’s putting over 70% of his balls in the air at favorable angles to do damage (8-40°). While he will come down a bit, because not even Trout, Votto, Freeman or Harper can sustain those elite levels of launch, he’s not doing anything I’d consider too crazy with regard to his power profile. Sure, maybe he’s barreled a few extra balls here and there, but at the end of the day, I think you’re going to see a player pushing more toward a .250 ISO than a .200 ISO. You can consider Baez more valuable in leagues that reward total bases due to his lower walk rate.

Brandon Belt (1B – SF): Triple Slash: .302/.413/.581 – Pull/Center/Oppo Air Balls: 48/24/27%
Three truths about Brandon Belt. First, he’s always hit the ball very hard. Second, he’s always been one of the deadliest line drive hitters in baseball. Lastly, Brandon Belt has always hit the ball the other way or to centerfield in the air and AT&T Park has always done what it’ll do and has eaten those balls for lunch or dinner. Belt has a ~.950 wOBA to the pull side in the air versus ~.500 to center and left field. Perhaps this isn’t a conscious change by Belt and he’ll turn into a negative regressor, but as he’s become adept at removing low-value ground balls from his batted ball profile while not increasing his > 40° poppers I tend to suspect he’s making real change. At the very least, you can monitor his approach and draw your own conclusions as we go. What this means is that while Belt has never even had a 20 HR season, this batted ball mix brings not only a 20 HR season into play but also a 30+ HR season. If you’re looking for a player to speculate on having a career year, find a league mate that’s willing to sell you Belt at value who thinks he’s selling high and you should reap the rewards so long as Belt can stay on the field. You won’t catch me trying to make a bold prediction on Belt’s health! Just remember, no one is better at lifting the ball or hitting fewer ground balls. He just needs to pull them.

Honorable Mentions: Nick Castellanos, Matt Chapman, Didi Gregorius, Yasmani Grandal, Blake Snell

Two players who will not positively regress to their desired output

Anthony Rizzo (1B – CHC): Triple Slash: .149/.259/.189
Will Rizzo hit this poorly all year? Surely not! But there is a hidden landmine in Rizzo’s batted ball profile. You see he hit ~60HRs to the pull-field over the past three season, but guess what? Only three since the All-Star break last year.

I noted recently on my Twitter feed that Rizzo used to hit seven out of 10 balls to the pull field at 95+ miles per hour in the air. He’s currently down to three out of 10 as you can see in the graphic above. With Rizzo hitting more than half his home runs to the pull field this represents a concern that was echoed by one of my Twitter followers who had some notes on Rizzo’s swing:

More space and back hip/back elbow separation. He’s late on plane and cutting balls https://t.co/RuJ1Cqgxh2

— Chad Longworth (@clongbaseball) May 2, 2018

Yes the bottom of his swing arc is too far forward so when it’s 93 (mlb average) he can’t get his barrel to a place where he could drive the ball in the air pullside

— Chad Longworth (@clongbaseball) May 2, 2018

Until Rizzo gets his swing back in order and we can start seeing it in his batted ball data, Rizzo may lose 5-to-8 HRs off his ~30 total he has put up like clockwork. You may point out to me that he was able to homer 11 times still in the second half of 2017, but you’ll want to keep in mind that Rizzo was masking his pull-field power issue with a non-repeatable HR/FB spike to centerfield last year.

George Springer (OF – HOU): Triple Slash: .267/.343/.483
Springer has repeated his 2017 success with keeping his K% below 20 and his walk rate near 10%. That keeps his value extremely high to both his fantasy owners and the Houston Astros. Where I think fantasy owners have unfair expectations is for him to repeat his HR barrage, specifically to the pull side in the air where he homered on ~75% of his balls hit between 24-40°. This aberration likely added 7-to-8 HRs to his total last year. Springer is still more like a 25 home run player rather than the 35 home run player we saw last year. Remember, he still hits just a ton of groundballs even if he’s putting more balls in play due to cutting down his whiff rate. While this may not seem like much, I’d not expect much more than his typical .265/.360/.470 line at the end of the year. Remember that his batting average was buoyed by the strong HR/FB spike as well.

Honorable Mentions: Jose Martinez, Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez, Kyle Seager, Chris Archer

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Jim Melichar is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Jim, check out his archive and follow him @JimMelichar7.