Aaron Schillinger breaks down which players saw sharp increases and decreases in their fantasy value after the NFL Draft.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Aaron, head to FFDynasty260.com.

The NFL Draft is Christmas morning for dynasty fantasy football owners. Many owners have already done their research and know which players they like or dislike. There is nothing like drafting a highly talented prospect, but there is always a chance he gets stuck behind Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker on an underwhelming offense, I’m looking at you Leonte Carroo.

The NFL Draft is very telling for rookies as well as veterans in the league. If a team with an established back or receiver lands a nice young talented rookie, there is also a chance that the dynasty value of that veteran takes a hit. The risk at stealing touches, the idea of getting some young blood into the offense, or just the thought of a rookie potentially stealing the show, all of these factors can hurt a veterans value.

I’m looking at rookies as well as veterans here, and several key names can be deemed “winners” or “losers” now that the 2018 NFL Draft is in the books. Some players are winners thanks to their landing spot offering some immediate return on investment. Other players are losers thanks to a young rookie coming into the scene, threatening their production or upside. Dynasty values change fairly quickly, so it is always important to stay on top of it and buy or sell these winners and losers at the right time.

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Winners

Ronald Jones II (RB – TB)
The rookie out of USC, Ronald Jones II, landed in one of the most coveted spots for a rookie RB in the 2018 NFL Draft. The question was never whether or not the Buccaneers would target the running back position in this year’s draft, but when.

As the fifth RB off the board, the Buccaneers grabbed Jones with the 38th pick in the draft. While I am always a fan of grabbing the most talented players, regardless of landing spot, you cannot ignore when a rookie lands in a spot with the right opportunity. Jones has the ideal chance at volume and upside in this offense. While I wasn’t the biggest fan of Jones prior to the draft, the opportunity and upside is impossible to overlook.

Jones isn’t known for his pass-catching ability, has questionable vision, and is far from the best pass-blocking back in this class. Despite these red flags, Jones is a winner here thanks to his opportunity for success with his landing spot.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR)
If there was one stat that could be looked at as underwhelming out of rookie RB Christian McCaffrey’s debut season, it’s touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, which is precisely what made McCaffrey so productive. Jonathan Stewart’s presence in Carolina limited McCaffrey’s upside to an extent, as he put up seven touchdowns and had 198 rushing attempts in 2017.

One of the biggest reasons why the second year back is a winner after this draft is the fact that the Panthers didn’t grab a replacement for Stewart, who is now a Giant. Cameron Artis-Payne is now the new Stewart, but I expect an expanded role next year out for McCaffrey.

Whether or not he will be able to handle 200+ touches on the season remains to be seen, but he was great in 2017 with 197 touches, I’d say he can handle a few more. Throw in some of those Stewart touchdowns, and McCaffrey may be a solid dynasty RB1 sooner rather than later.

Michael Gallup (WR – DAL)
With the release of Dez Bryant prior to the NFL Draft, an excellent landing spot for a rookie opened up, and the lucky receiver is Michael Gallup out of Colorado State. Gallup dominated in college, despite playing just two seasons, putting up 176 catches for 2,690 yards, which was good for 15.3 YPC and 21 touchdowns. Prior to landing on the Cowboys, he was going as early as the late first round in rookie drafts, and as late as the third round.

If your dynasty team is in need of immediate production, Gallup provides that, as well as good long-term upside. While a guy like Courtland Sutton may take a year or two to produce, Gallup is someone you can target in the late first and expect immediate production. The volume will be there, as his main competitors for targets are Allen Hurns and Cole Beasley. With the departure of Bryant and now the recent news of retirement in their longtime tight end, Jason Witten, Gallup is a winner from the NFL Draft.

Other Winners

• Jerick McKinnon (RB – SF)
• Christian Kirk (WR – ARI)

Losers

Jacksonville Jaguars WRs
With the departure of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, the Jaguars looked like a sweet spot for a rookie WR to land. They did land a nice prospect in D.J. Chark, but due to his landing spot, he was my initial loser here.

The newly formed receiving core for the Jaguars includes Chark, Marqise Lee, Keelan Cole, Donte Moncrief, and Dede Westbrook. Cole and Westbrook both showed flashes last year, and the signing of Moncrief was intriguing as many fantasy owners were curious if he could become something more than the red-zone threat he was in Indianapolis.

Chark is still a fine rookie to take a shot at in your dynasty drafts, as he is a fairly talented prospect, but this situation is just looking more and more like one to avoid. Not to mention, Blake Bortles isn’t anything to get overly excited about.

John Kelly (RB – LAR)
This is your classic case of a rookie with upside landing in a worst-case scenario. John Kelly, the running back out of Tennessee, had been creeping up into the late first round of rookie drafts before getting stuck behind arguably the best running back in dynasty leagues. Considering the breakout of this Rams’ offense and the fact that Gurley is a massive part of that, Kelly is now stuck in what is likely the worst spot a rookie RB could’ve landed.

Kelly was very reliable catching the ball out of the backfield, has good pass-protection skills, and makes defenders miss when he’s in the open field. Kelly was someone I was very excited about drafting in my rookie drafts, but is now someone you will likely grab in the fourth round or so. Thanks a lot, Todd.

Devin Funchess (WR – CAR)
After a nice breakout season in 2017, Devin Funchess saw a nice bump in value in the dynasty community. With the departure of Kelvin Benjamin later on in the season, things opened up even more and we were able to see how Funchess handles a number one receiver role. It turns out, he can put up solid numbers despite being the number one receiving option that opposing secondaries need to focus on.

The breakout of Funchess has been brought to a halt thanks to the newly signed receiver out of Maryland, D.J. Moore. Moore was the number one receiver on many boards prior to the draft, and should still be the first receiver off the board in dynasty drafts. He offers immediate impact and should have no issue grabbing 60 passes, with the potential for more.

His biggest competition for targets will be RB Christian McCaffrey, and Funchess drops on the pecking order in Carolina. Greg Olsen will be back and should be his usual self, but Moore will be able to play out of the slot and can be dangerous across the middle of the field. All this being said about Moore, the clear loser for dynasty purposes here is Funchess.

Other Losers

• Carlos Hyde (RB – CLE)
• Rex Burkhead (RB – NE)

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