You’ll often find two completely differing trains of thought when it comes to rookies in fantasy football, as some will say that you can’t trust a player who has never done anything in the NFL, while others welcome the uncertainty that comes with them. As is the case with most things, there’s often a middle-ground between the two parties and that’s where I come in.
Get a FREE FantasyPros upgrade with our special offer 
Not only have we done research this offseason to determine what rookies (at all positions) are worth in fantasy football based on where they were drafted (read that here), but we’ve been doing this for years while not being partial to either side of the argument. By being partial, you could be missing out on some of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts, and that does nobody good, including that best friend in your back pocket.
Using early data from Fantasy Football Calculator, we’re able to identify which rookies are being overvalued, as well as those who are falling too far in drafts. It’s only a matter of time before the masses catch on, but if you’re able to hold your drafts early, this information benefits your fantasy squad. At the very least, it’ll give you an edge in some best-ball leagues.
Overvalued Players
Michael Gallup (WR – DAL) Current ADP: WR61
It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that third-round wide receivers don’t often pan out in their rookie season, as just 8.7 percent of them have finished with top-36 numbers in their rookie season over the last five years. In fact, just 17.4 percent of them finished top-48, with the average finish being the No. 83 wide receiver, likely because they’ve averaged just 36.9 targets per season. It’s funny, because I understand why fantasy players want to like Gallup due to his situation, but historically, he’s facing an uphill battle based on where he was drafted.
Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA) Current ADP: TE18
You’ve likely heard the whole “rookie tight ends don’t produce” argument, right? Some are arguing that point after Evan Engram finished top-five last year, but he was an outlier in what I’d consider a decent sample size. There’ve been 26 tight ends who have been drafted inside the top three rounds over the last five years, and he’s the only one to even finish inside the top-18 in PPR formats. There were also some crazy circumstances that led to him getting there, as Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall, and Sterling Shepard all missed significant time. I love Gesicki as a player, but it’s going to be really tough for him to live up to his current ADP.
Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL) Current ADP: WR49
If you follow me, you know that I’m a huge Ridley fan. With that being said, he’s overpriced for a rookie wide receiver in redraft formats. Over the last five years, there’ve been 40 wide receivers drafted inside the top two rounds. Of those 40 receivers, just 11 have finished inside the top-48 wide receivers in their rookie year. The average fantasy finish for a rookie wide receiver taken in the first round over the last five years is WR67, which is much worse than his current ADP. He could outperform this because of his pro-readiness, but know that’s built into his price.
D.J. Moore (WR – CAR) Current ADP: WR53
If you read the Ridley paragraph above, you likely know why Moore is on this list, though he’s just a tad cheaper than Ridley. Moore also wasn’t considered to be as pro-ready as Ridley, but he did walk onto a team where he could take over as the go-to wide receiver, though it’d be hard for him to beat both Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen in the pecking order. Rookie wide receivers just don’t perform the way you’d like to think they do. On average, a first-round wide receiver saw 64.8 targets in his rookie season.
Undervalued Players
Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA) Current ADP: RB37
It’s been the easiest thing to preach this offseason – draft rookie running backs. With guys like Adrian Peterson and DeMarco Murray sitting out there in free agency, it’s easy to see that it’s a young man’s position, and the results speak for themselves. It’s not the largest sample size, but 80 percent of running backs drafted in the first-round over the last five years have finished as a top-12 running back in their rookie season. Penny plays behind a poor offensive line, which could limit his upside, but he’s going to get plenty of touches. That’s what you chase in fantasy football.
Sony Michel (RB – NE) Current ADP: RB33
Another first-round running back who’s being severely undervalued. Not only do first-round running backs average 264.4 touches per season in their rookie year and have an average finish of RB15, but Michel fell into the Patriots offense that has been a top-three scoring offense every year since 2010. Did you know that 39 percent of top-six running backs come from top-six scoring offenses over the last six years? I’m going to make it my goal to move Michel up draft boards by August, because he should be drafted as a top-20 running back without hesitation.
Kerryon Johnson (RB – DET) Current ADP: RB48
While I’m not a huge fan of the landing spot for Johnson, history says that he’s being undervalued. He was drafted near the top of the second-round, an area of the draft where running backs have seen an average of 177.5 touches in their rookie season and finish as the RB34. The reason to remain somewhat skeptical about him is that the Lions did snag LeGarrette Blount, who’ll likely be the goal-line back, and they still have Theo Riddick, who is one of the better third-down running backs in the league. Still, you don’t see teams often take a running back in the second-round to not use him.
Ronald Jones (RB – TB) Current ADP: RB40
This is one of the more puzzling ones to me, as the Bucs had a clear hole at the running back position that was filled in the top of the second-round, by one of the most electrifying running backs in the draft. He was close enough to the first-round to give him the benefit of the doubt, too, so the average finish of RB34 for second-round picks should be easy to hit. If you’re worried about Peyton Barber, don’t be, they wouldn’t have drafted Jones. If you’re worried about Charles Sims, don’t be, as they gave an incompetent Doug Martin 119 touches over a span of seven games when he returned from suspension, while Sims was perfectly healthy.
Biggest Takeaways
If there’s one thing you should be taking away from this article, it’s that you shouldn’t be scared of drafting rookie running backs, especially at their current cost, which is much lower than it should be. As for the other positions, it’s safe to let someone else reach for what would be a historical outlier. So, as is the case with most things, both camps can be right. When it comes to drafting rookies, the best answer you can give is that it depends on the position they play.
Subscribe: iTunes | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS
Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
