The regression train has its peaks and valleys all season and no player is safe from watching their ground ball, home run to flyball ratio or batted ball mix excursions derail and leave their fantasy team hurting. Let’s tackle a few players to target in the coming weeks for positive and negative regression. Perhaps you’ll choose to ride the train a little longer, or maybe you’ll jump off now.
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Negative Regression Candidates
Alen Hanson (2B – SF) is currently hitting .321/.345/.643 and many of you may be asking yourselves what is real and what is an illusion. For starters, Hanson is running a .500, yes .500, BABIP on ground balls. That’s concern #1. Concern #2 is he doesn’t really hit the ball all that hard in the air. He’ll hit maybe three out of every 10 balls 95+ miles-per-hour, which will give him a chance at some home runs every once in a while, but not with any consistency. The fact that he’s driven two of his nine fly balls for home runs with no corresponding increase in exit velocity should be a warning sign that Alen Hanson is not for real, it’s all illusion and will disappear very quickly. I don’t advise adding him to your starting lineup, you’ll just catch the crash on the tail end of his hot streak.
Christian Villanueva (3B – SD) is on a tear like you rarely see in baseball. Perhaps Xander Bogaerts March/April comes close. Here’s the deal with Villanueva, and I said the same thing about Xander Bogaerts. I’m just unwilling to believe that he’ll keep his GB% near 30% while maintaining Freddie Freeman‘s batted ball profile and something above J.D. Martinez. That 43% HR/FB rate you see on his low flies/high liners (grey launch angles) is going to come back down to earth. However, it’s not to say this is all gloom and doom with Villanueva. He’s got pull-field power and he’s pulling the ball 43% of the time on his air balls, I just don’t think you can expect him to keep producing at this level. Perfect sell-high time if you can get a proven asset for him while people might be buying him as a big breakout.
Mike Moustakas (3B – KC) just won’t succumb to batted ball luck. He’s still hitting .291/.326/.545 but I promise you his luck is soon to end. Take a look at his last 21-day rolling BABIP on ground balls. Remember, the ISO isn’t going anywhere, in fact there may still be some growth to come there, but the AVG and OBP are going to slide hard.
Nick Markakis (OF – ATL) is not hitting more optimally struck fly balls to generate all the power increase he’s seen in his ISO and SLG. His deserved triple-slash over at xStats.org is .317/.400/.463, but again you have to remember that xStats aren’t predictive. While he may have earned most of his increase in power, it does nothing to tell you if you should expect it to continue. I’m telling you not to expect it to continue. He’s currently living off three well struck balls to center field that went for home runs. He’s not pulling the ball more, nor barreling more of the fly balls he hits. It’s simply a small-sample sized hot streak. No reason to rush and add him in 10-12 team leagues. You’ll end up regretting it.
Positive Regression Candidates
Michael Conforto (OF – NYM) is getting dropped harder than, well, you mix in your own metaphor, but fantasy owners have come to their own conclusions and his ownership has dwindled in past weeks. A .184/.384/.263 triple-slash line will do that do your ownership. However, if there is one stat you need to know about Michael Conforto, it’s this:
He’s pulled one ball, yes a single batted ball, in the air, at homer friendly launch angles. That one ball, he smoked at 105 mph. I have no doubts that his power is still there, yet there’s something in his approach that’s skewing his distribution on fly balls. While his career horizontal spray angles are distributed pretty evenly at 33/32/35 to the Pull/Center/Opposite fields, Conforto has managed just 8/17/75 to open the 2018 season. The rest of his batted ball mix looks identical to his previous three years data, including the outcomes. This is why if you follow xStats.org you will see he’s “deserved” his stats thus far this season.
Remember, those statistics aren’t predictive. If the mix of batted balls were to change for Conforto, so too will his xStats. I can’t imagine he’ll finish the year hitting everything the other way in the air, it’s just not who he is. If there’s something to do with the injury affecting him this year it’s not showing up in his batted ball profile in terms of GB Pull%, nor is it affecting his overall distribution of launch angles – he’s still lifting the ball just as frequently as he always has.
Jose Quintana (SP – CHC) is using his four-seam fastball and change-up more to start this year and it hasn’t been a good look for him. His curveball has typically been his swing-and-miss pitch but that rate has all but been cut in half in 2018. Whether it’s a loss of confidence or feel for the pitch, Quintana is certainly better when he’s not relying on letting the fastball get put into play (.354 wOBA against / .462 xwOBA against). Last year, his curveball held opponents to a .275 wOBA while using it almost 30% of the time. So far this year he’s used it around 23%. I think once Quintana gets back to throwing the four-seamer 35% of the time rather than 50% or more, the results will follow. But keep an eye on his pitch usage and results in the meantime. It’s worth cautioning that Quintana’s four-seam velocity is down more than a couple ticks from 2016 and at least a tick from 2017.
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Jim Melichar is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Jim, check out his archive and follow him @JimMelichar7.
