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By The Numbers: J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Billy Hamilton

By The Numbers: J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Billy Hamilton

Over the offseason, everyone knew J.D. Martinez and the Boston Red Sox were the perfect marriage. Martinez wanted to cash in on that big contract, while Boston needed the power bat that they sorely lacked following David Ortiz’s retirement after the 2016 season.

Maybe it wasn’t the smoothest courting process, but it’s safe to say everyone is happy no one got cold feet. Martinez has been everything the Red Sox hoped for and then some, slashing a robust .317/.375/.652 while leading the league in both home runs (20) and RBIs (52). There’s little reason to think he won’t keep it up, sitting near the top of the leaderboards in wOBA (.427), xwOBA (.464), ISO (.335), hard-hit rate (52.4%), and average exit velocity (95.3 mph).

It’s funny to think now that Martinez was a late second-round pick, going outside the top 20 of most fantasy drafts. He’s now slugged 65 bombs since the beginning of last season, and let’s not forget that he only played in 119 games in 2017. Despite the missed playing time, he trails only Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge in home runs over that span. It also can’t be overlooked that Martinez even hits for average, consistently showing the ability to maintain a high BABIP, and if he can keep it up this year, this would mark his third straight season hitting over .300.

Maybe injury concerns deflated his draft stock — he’s eclipsed over 123 games in a season just once in his career — but it’s safe to say he would go much higher if a draft was held today. If he hadn’t already, he’s established himself as one of the most dangerous bats in the league, and anyone who invested in him should feel mighty good about it. Cross your fingers that he can stay on the field. Like we saw with Stanton last year, we could be in for an epic final stat line.

Now, let’s check in on how a couple other guys are doing around the league.

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Andrew Benintendi is one of four players with double-digit home runs and stolen bases

Sticking a little longer with Boston, while Mookie Betts and Martinez have gotten all the headlines, Andrew Benintendi is quietly confirming his status as a five-category fantasy stud. Benintendi entered the year as a relatively “safe” pick just outside the top 40, coming off a solid all-around 2017 campaign with 84 runs, 20 home runs, 90 RBIs, 20 stolen bases, and a .271 average. That’s pretty darn good for a guy’s first full season! But in spite of still being just 23 years old, Benintendi got little buzz or fanfare, perhaps due to the lack of any single standout fantasy category.

Yet, here we are, and Benintendi has been one of the season’s best fantasy players to this point. Following a sluggish April, he really turned it on last month, and he’s now reached 10 dingers and 10 swiped bags, joining an exclusive club of just four guys to reach double-digits in both categories, along with Mike Trout, Betts, and Tim Anderson. Meanwhile, Benintendi is hitting a cool .296, and batting high in the Sox order has him in the top 10 for runs (44) and RBIs (43). So much for not possessing upside, I guess?

So, can we expect Benintendi to keep up this pace? No one will ever confuse him for Martinez, but he’s showing a slight bump in average exit velocity, so he ought to surpass last season’s 20 dingers without too much trouble. However, it’s worth noting he also only has a 25.1% hard-hit rate, which ought to improve, but probably signifies that we shouldn’t project a significant leap in power.

Another 20-plus stolen bases should also be in the cards, as Alex Cora’s team is among the most busy on the base paths. Considering Benintendi has only been caught stealing once, there’s no reason he won’t have the green light every night. As for everything else, hitting between Betts and Martinez can only mean the runs and RBIs will continue to pile up, and Benintendi has hit for average at every stage of his career.

Overall, everything checks out, and while he still might not blow us away with 30 dingers or stolen bases, he should continue to be rock solid everywhere. In some ways, he’s practically everything he was supposed to be, so it’s curious he didn’t get more props during draft season. These 20-20 guys don’t grow on trees, let alone one who might hit .300 and add around 100 runs and RBIs. We’ll happily take that on any roto team.

Billy Hamilton is batting .199 with a 30.6% strikeout rate

On the flip side, let’s take a look at someone who has decidedly not lived up to expectations.

We touched on Billy Hamilton at the beginning of May, and it’s safe to say he hasn’t exactly turned things around since then. Entering the year, would you have believed by the beginning of June that Hamilton would have the same number of stolen bases as Benintendi? Sure, his 10 swiped bags still ranks top 20 in this day and age, but for a guy we usually project around 50, that’s not getting it done. After all, if Hamilton isn’t stealing bases… what is he doing?

Well, sadly, the answer is… not a whole lot. His batting line sits at a miserable .199/.287/.285 and his 30.6% strikeout rate is by far the worst mark of his career. He’s actually walking more often with an 11.0% rate, but it’s hardly enough to make up for that spike in punchouts. Hamilton is also curiously posting a career-low 39.1% ground-ball rate, which might be a good thing for other hitters, but for a guy who has all of 19 career home runs, it’s arguably more beneficial for him to hit more ground balls and try to get on base with his speed.

And if all those miserable numbers weren’t enough, Hamilton isn’t even getting spot starts out of the leadoff spot anymore under interim manager Jim Riggleman, wallowing away in the nine-hole where counting stats go to die. Luckily, his defense seems to have given him an extra long leash, so he’s still getting regular playing time, but even if he can turn things around at the plate, his value is capped this low in the order.

But all this being said, it’s not like Hamilton has ever put up remarkable hitting numbers, and it’s never prevented him from racking up the stolen bases. For instance, even when he hit .226 with a .274 OBP in 2015, he still managed to pile up 57 stolen bases. And that might be the most concerning part — Hamilton simply isn’t running this season. He’s 10-for-13 on stolen base attempts this season, whereas by June 7th of last year he already had 28 bags off 33 attempts. It wasn’t like he was getting on base that often back then either (.305 OBP).

It’s unclear what’s changed because it’s not like Hamilton still isn’t one of the fastest dudes in the league. Is this a philosophical change in the organization? Do they not want him to run ahead of the leadoff man? Have his struggles at the plate affected his confidence even when he’s on base?

It’s a head-scratcher for sure, and one that we don’t have an easy answer for at this point. If Hamilton’s track record is any indication, though, we know he can steal bags in bunches, so we can keep hoping that this is just some flukey stretch of inactivity. Even so, it’s hard to not be concerned with how he’s performing at the dish, and the Reds have three other capable outfielders if they eventually get tired of waiting. It’s a tricky situation for fantasy owners, but chances are you spent a fairly high pick on Hamilton, so you’re probably stuck in a holding pattern. Let’s hope this one has a happy ending, but with a third of the season in the books, we’re going to need a major plot twist to change this narrative.

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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.

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