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By The Numbers: Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp, Wilson Ramos

By The Numbers: Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp, Wilson Ramos

We’re less than a month away from the All-Star break, and as the votes continue to pile up, a surprising name leads all National League outfielders in voting, and edges closer to his first All-Star appearance… at age 34. Nick Markakis has generally been a solid, if unspectacular, major league regular, with his best statistical season coming way back in 2008, when he slashed .306/.406/.491 with 106 runs, 20 home runs, 87 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases, alongside a .392 wOBA and 138 wRC+. Since then, Markakis has yet to reach 20 dingers again, and has achieved 100 RBIs or runs just once. Over his last three seasons in an Atlanta Braves uniform, he’s managed just a .323 wOBA and 100 wRC+.

But here we are, a decade later, and Markakis is suddenly relevant again as the grizzled veteran for an upstart Braves team. With eight home runs on his ledger, he isn’t a sure thing to reach 20, but otherwise, it’s hard to argue with a .323/.387/.479 batting line with 44 runs and 44 RBIs. His .370 wOBA and 134 wRC+ are his best marks since 2008, and he’s also showing career-bests in hard-hit rate (38.2%) and strikeout rate (9.9%).

It’s all quite a fun story, but as always, the question is whether he can keep it up. His .339 BABIP is a smidge high, but considering his above-average .318 career mark, he’s not necessarily slated for major regression. The hard-hit rate is an excellent sign, and his xwOBA checks out as well (.376). Meanwhile, batting cleanup behind the likes of Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies — plus Ronald Acuna when he’s back — should only help keep his counting stats up.

Really, with solid peripherals across the board, there’s little reason to think Markakis can’t maintain this surprise resurgence the rest of the way. Some more power would be nice, but considering he’s already matched last year’s total, we’re already playing with house money. Chances are he was a forgotten man in your fantasy drafts this season, so you’ll happily take his contributions in batting average, runs, and RBIs. Let’s take a gander at how some other potential surprise All-Stars are doing.

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Matt Kemp is posting top-20 marks in wRC+ (146) and wOBA (.383)

When Matt Kemp returned to his old stomping grounds in the offseason, he was another afterthought during draft season, as most wondered whether he would play much, if at all, for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Coming off a pedestrian campaign with the Braves, it looks like Kemp might be finished as a relevant fantasy baseball player.

But much like Markakis, to everyone’s surprise, Kemp has not only emerged as the Dodgers’ everyday cleanup man, but he’s currently the third leading vote-getter in the NL outfield behind Markakis and Bryce Harper. Kemp is sitting pretty with a .322/.358/.551 batting line to go with 32 runs, 12 home runs, and 43 RBIs. Among qualified batters, he ranks 13th in wRC+ (146) and 19th in wOBA (.383), his best marks since 2012.

It’s easy to point to a .377 BABIP, and think it’s all smoke and mirrors, but he’s shown a knack for maintaining a high BABIP over the years, owning .340 career figure. Of course, much of his high-BABIP years came when he was more fleet of foot, but when factoring in his 45.4% hard-hit rate, regression might not be a steep as one would think.

Kemp is also showing an encouraging .409 xwOBA, another sign suggesting he’s been deserving of his accolades thus far. Best of all, he’s displayed a sizable jump in average exit velocity, and has significantly dropped his ground-ball rate from last year (36.2%), so his rekindled home run power shouldn’t disappear. Outside of perhaps taking a step back in batting average, there’s a lot to like here, and it looks like Father Time will need to wait a little longer before giving Kemp a call.

Wilson Ramos holds a top-10 xwOBA (.358) among catchers 

On the American League side, the leading vote-getters are more of your usual suspects, but Wilson Ramos just snuck past Gary Sanchez at catcher this week, so he deserves a nod. The fantasy catcher position is more of a wasteland than ever, but Ramos is one of the handful of guys getting you your money’s worth. Ramos has put down a solid .288/.337/.447 line, and with nine bombs and 36 RBIs, he’s at a reasonable pace to match his career-bests from 2016, when he slugged 22 dingers and plated 80 RBIs. Among his catching brethren, Ramos’ .358 xwOBA ranks tenth among those with at least 100 plate appearances.

But unlike Markakis and Kemp, who have both shown some ability to maintain a high BABIP over their careers, that’s decidedly not the case for Ramos. While Ramos did post a .327 BABIP in his breakout 2016 campaign, he’s otherwise exhibited a below average number in most other seasons, settling in at .292 for his career. Between that, and a rise in strikeout rate (19.8%), his batting average likely takes a dip over the long haul. And while Ramos is showing a 38.8% hard-hit rate, he’s still hitting a ton of ground balls (50.6%), which has led to a modest .159 ISO. Throw in playing home games at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, and that could cap his home run potential moving forward as well.

Still, Ramos hardly has to be perfect at such an imperfect fantasy position, and even with some regression, his numbers stack favorably with others at the position. Merely batting in the heart of the Tampa Bay Rays’ order ought to giving him plenty of RBI chances, and playing time is as big a factor as any at catcher, where he’s tied for fifth among them in plate appearances (243). It wouldn’t be shocking to see Sanchez eventually overtake Ramos again in All-Star voting, but there isn’t any reason to think Ramos can’t continue to be a solid fantasy contributor in the coming months.

Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.

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