Happy Father’s Day a day in advance for all you dads out there. Sometimes it can be tough being a dad and trying to play DFS. Luckily, there’s time-saving research being done by folks like myself to help you find the best value plays when the pitchers you want to use are super expensive. That’s what I’ll be doing today for both the afternoon (early) and the main (featured) slate on DraftKings. If you want to get guys like Max Scherzer or Patrick Corbin into those lineups, we’ll need to find some lower-priced options that can provide the points we need to get into the cash. Ready? Let’s go!
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Pitcher
EARLY
Sean Newcomb (ATL): $9,500 vs. S
Newcomb has all the strikeout upside we like to see from our pitchers on DraftKings. He faces the Padres and their lineup of free swingers. On the year, San Diego has a 23% K rate versus lefties as a team and they’re certainly a team to target when looking for whiffs. I also like both of the pitching options in the Philadelphia at Milwaukee game if you need to save a little salary. Expect solid outings from any of that trio of arms I listed.
FEATURED
Alex Wood (LAD): $6,700 vs. SF
Aside from the excellent pitching environment of Dodgers Stadium, Wood (-143) gets an affordable price tag on tonight’s short slate. SanFran recently lost lefty-masher Evan Longoria, making Andrew McCutchen the only real threat to Wood in their lineup. The Giants do get Brandon Belt returning from appendix surgery today, but overall, that lineup is fairly weak. Wood has handled these Giants in the past and should do so again tonight.
Catcher
EARLY
Tucker Barnhart (CIN): $3,200 @ PIT
Catcher is pretty deep on the 8-game slate and Barnhart is my favorite as a switch-hitting catcher batting second on the road for $3,200. His exit velocities and hard-hit rate have been excellent lately as well. Going to a pitching-friendly park is a bummer, but Ivan Nova is on the mound so there’s minuscule K risk, putting the aforementioned batted ball data is in play. You can also play one of the potential three backstops in the Rockies at Rangers game. I also really like Yan Gomes (CLE) at $3,400 vs. MIN as ALL of his batted ball data has sharply spiked this month.
FEATURED
John Ryan Murphy (ARI): $3,500 vs. NYM
J.R. gets to face Steven Matz and that’s good news for him as he’s taken the liberty of feasting on southpaws this season. Speaking of feast, feast your eyes on these numbers: .347 ISO, .403 wOBA and 156 wRC+. My goodness! His absurd splits are worthy of locking him in on this small slate in both cash games and tournaments, mostly because unlike the 4 pm slate, there aren’t many attractive options on the cheap side for the nightcap on DK.
First Base
EARLY
Trey Mancini (BAL): $3,400 vs. MIA (also OF eligible)
In the dumpster fire that is the Marlins at Orioles series, Mancini is in play today, along with other O’s bats as Vegas has given Baltimore a 5.3 implied run total as of this writing. It’s more about Wei-Yin Chen, who currently has both a FIP and xFIP over 6.5 and a wOBA against of .389 versus righty bats this year. Chen’s overall 2018 ERA thus far is 6.13 and that’s with a ridiculously high strand rate so he could very well get pounded today.
FEATURED
Wilmer Flores (NYM): $3,000 @ ARI (also 3B eligible)
Flores has his struggles against lefty pitching this season, a far cry from the Wilmer we all know and love. He’s actually done well versus righties in 2018. I think there is legitimate reason to play him when the price is this low and you know a guy has traditionally smashed in platoon advantages, especially considering he hits third in the order and the trend for normalization always exists in baseball, but he’s more of a GPP play for sure.
Second Base
EARLY
Jonathan Schoop (BAL): $3,500 vs. MIA
I’ve already referenced the tasty matchup the Orioles have today, but there are a myriad of reasons their hitters are in play. For instance, take Schoop, a guy who’s hit lefties very well in an injury-shortened 2018. He’s historically pounded RH pitching his entire career with major reverse-platoon splits. With hitters who face a horrible pitcher and have a steady track record, again, this wreaks of a trending toward normalization today in a very big way.
FEATURED
Matt Carpenter (STL): $3,800 vs. CHC (also 3B eligible)
Much like Monday’s article, Carpenter is in a good spot. He could arguably be considered the best value again on the late slate tonight. When he hits leadoff, he’s the man, plain and simple. The quintessential “professional hitter”, is sporting a decent .201 ISO, but the .342 wOBA and 117 wRC+ versus RHP is impressive considering his prolonged struggles the first six weeks of 2018. He’s been undoubtedly crushing the ball since breaking out.
Third Base
EARLY
Adrian Beltre (TEX): $3,800 vs. COL
I almost went with Danny Valencia (BAL): $3,700 vs MIA, who’s firmly in play…but let’s take a break from that game for a moment. I wanted to instead hammer home the point that Beltre is one of the most reliable and consistent hitters in MLB over the last 15 years. His price has dipped below $4,000 and that’s all I need to feel confident locking him in. He’s a solid bet to pay off his salary and the matchup against a lefty is even better.
FEATURED
Justin Turner (LAD): $3,600 vs. SF
Turner is back to hitting the ball and has actually paid off his salary over half the time since his return from the disabled list. The matchup against Madison Bumgarner may seem daunting, but I’m really not concerned as he hasn’t looked incredibly sharp. Turner usually crushed righties, but has looked great against lefties as well, hitting .318 against them with robust .407 wOBA and 164 wRC+ marks. I’d lean on him in all formats.
Shortstop
EARLY
David Fletcher (LAA): $2,900 @ OAK
With Andrelton Simmons and Zach Cozart on the shelf, the Halos have turned to some younger farm hands to fill in. Both Fletcher and teammate Nolan Fontana ($2,600) are intriguing for their price as they were sporting nearly identical wOBA and wRC+ marks in Triple-A this season. That said, I’d give the edge to Fletcher here as the platoon is in his favor and he was also the better hitter in minor leagues, hitting .350 when he got the call.
FEATURED
Nick Ahmed (ARI): $3,400 vs. NYM
I’m using Ahmed in all formats on this short slate. Let me flash his 2018 stats against southpaws again; .264 ISO, 371 wOBA and 135 wRC+. If that’s not enough, his recent batted ball data has looked great too, exhibiting high hard hit rates and exit velocities in the month of June. He’s a solid play in a D-Backs stack, hitting in front of red-hot Paul Goldschmidt and J.R. Murphy (mentioned above). Don’t leave Ahmed out, you could regret it.
Outfield
EARLY
Chad Pinder (OAK): $3,100 vs. LAA
One of my favorite StatCast guys, Pinder is always in the upper-echelon of those numbers. Those metrics haven’t translated into huge success, largely in part due to playing time as a platoon guy as a lefty killer. However, Pinder will possibly be hitting out of the two spot tonight and this price is nice for a dude with elevated hard hit and flyball rates who crushes southpaws and carries a .370 wOBA and 139 wRC+ against them in 2018. Play him!
Baltimore Outfielders vs. MIA
Yup, back to this game. Aside from the facts I gave you about Marlins SP Wei-Yin Chen, the Marlins bullpen is also one of the absolute worst in baseball. In 2018, they rank either last or bottom-3 in basically every metric. The O’s aren’t great either, but here are some highlights:
Joey Rickard $2,900: Hitting leadoff on a team expected to score over five runs against a struggling starter and terrible bullpen. Yes, please!
Craig Gentry $2,500: Pure stolen base upside here. There’s a good shot he gets on base against Wei-Yen Gas Can, he could be very active on the bases.
Mark Trumbo $3,800: Some power upside here, but he’s the least appealing of the bunch due to the price tag and the HRs not being there since 2016.
FEATURED
Enrique Hernandez (LAD): $3,300 vs. SF
In what has proven to be a strange day of research with so many career platoon hitters having opposite results in 2018, Kike has also been hitting righties a little better than usual. He typically handles lefties very well, and today’s lefty in particular. In his career versus MadBum, Hernandez has owned him, hitting 14-for-30 (.467) with over half of those hits being for extra bases, including three long balls. He’s firmly in play in all formats.
Chicago Outfielders vs. STL
This matchup isn’t nearly as tasty as the O’s versus Fish, but it’s still full of potential, sneaky upside potential. The prices are a bit higher on the Cubbies outfield as well, but I really like them as a great option for lower-ownership on the slate. Even if they’re somewhat popular, they’re in play.
Albert Almora $3,700: The leadoff hitter in the Cubs order on the road will have the most plate appearances of anyone in their lineup. He’s in play.
Kyle Schwarber $3,800: With a hitter-friendly umpire in St. Louis today, putting Schwarber’s spiked flyball rate and escalated exit velocities in play.
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Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.
