Welcome to this Saturday’s edition of DraftKings MLB Value Plays. It’s a skimpy four-game slate, but I know some of you will be playing it, so we better get busy. It’s a quadrant of games featuring one in Coors and an obvious ace in expensive stud pitcher in Charlie Morton for $12,400. I expect him to be nearly a -200 favorite by first pitch tonight. That game may be high-scoring, but the appeal is Morton’s huge strikeout upside on DraftKings. It’s going to be a sound strategy to stack Coors, let’s be honest…when is it not? Getting exposure to that game, or Morton, is going to take a decent chunk of your lineup’s salary cap. To free up some cap space, we’ll look at some cheap guys that can make it work. Ready? Let’s go!
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Pitcher
Anibal Sanchez (ATL): $6,500 @ LAD
Coming off a 2-hit gem against the Nationals, Sanchez is a road dog today but gets an excellent pitching environment at Dodgers stadium. Both teams are in the upper middle-third of hitting against each opposing starter’s handedness, so this game will likely come down to run support. The Braves have smashed lefties all year, so I actually like the Braves in this spot. Atlanta doesn’t strikeout much at all versus southpaws, so there’s a chance that Sanchez out duels Wood in this games based on strikeout upside. When you factor in Wood’s likelihood to go 6 innings and the price differential, it’s not even close. I’m all about using him in GPPs tonight, but you could run him out in cash games and not be hung out to dry.
Catcher
Tyler Flowers (ATL): $3,600 @ LAD
It’s all about the recent batted ball data with Flowers. He and Kurt Suzuki have been splitting time, but with the last couple weeks of increased exit velocity, hard hit and flyball metrics from Flowers, he’s my favorite backstop. His price is a bit high, so I don’t blame you for using a catcher playing in Colorado like Chris Iannetta (COL): $3,200 vs. ARI in cash games. But Flowers is the way to go in tournaments today to differentiate yourself.
First Base
Yulieski Gurriel (HOU): $3,500 @ TEX
Houston is my favorite offense on the board tonight and they may go a little under the radar from an ownership perspective. That said, you can use either first baseman for the Astros as I like them both. Gurriel will likely hit fifth behind Carlos Correa and that’s worth the extra $200 over Marwin Gonzalez. If you want to play both, feel free to stack them up. The ‘Stros have a 5.5 implied run total and getting exposure to the bats is a solid play.
Second Base
Chris Owings (ARI): $3,500 @ COL (also OF eligible)
I’m apprehensive to put Owings in this article again as he’s let us down both times we’ve made him a value play this year. However, I absolutely love slumping hitters with high hard hit rates going to Coors Field. Owings is in a prime spot to bust out, hitting 5th or 6th for the visiting team in Colorado. He’ll almost certainly get 4 plate appearances and could run into one and turn his bad BABIP luck around. It only takes one good swing.
Third Base
Adrian Beltre (TEX): $3,600 vs. HOU
Beltre is such a consistent player, you really can’t go wrong putting him in your lineup any time he’s below $4,000. If you play Charlie Morton, leave him out as that’s a negative correlation play, but by all means, run him out there if you’re fading Morton. His recent batted ball data shouldn’t surprise anyone with high batted ball speeds and distances accompanying an elevated fly ball rate. He’s the cliche “professional hitter” at a modest discount.
Shortstop
Dansby Swanson (ATL): $3,500 @ LAD
I like both Braves shortstops, but Swanson should hit second for Atlanta. That alone is worth paying up $200 from Johan Camargo. If you can’t afford Beltre at the hot corner, Camargo is a solid pivot. As for Swanson, his batted ball data the past two weeks is too robust to ignore. He’s spiking in all the key metrics; his hard-hit rate is way up, batted ball speeds and distances are both elevated along with his flyball rate. He’s in play in all formats.
Outfield
Marwin Gonzalez (HOU): $3,300 @ TEX (also 1B eligible)
MarGon has been playing shortstop this weekend, but we can play him at first base or outfield, which is nice because I’m not loving the cheap outfield options on this small slate. He offers flexibility and the Astros are starting to bust out against southpaws lately after starting the season a little quiet. If you can’t afford him or the higher-priced Houston bats, take a look at teammate Jake Marisnick for $500 less.
Jake Marisnick (HOU): $2,800 @ TEX
Marisnick will likely get stuck in the nine spot, but he’s still worth a look on the road in Arlington where it’s supposed to be nearly 100 degrees. If you’re new to DFS, the warmer the weather, the more the ball flies…it’s just science! Also, a 9,1,2,3,4 Astros wrap-around stack is a nice sneaky play in tournaments. Don’t be scared.
Jay Bruce (NYM): $3,300 vs. NYY
Bruce is having a down year, to say the least. He’s always been better at hitting righties, so I’m hoping this trend continues and some of the recent batted ball data comes into play soon as he’s been getting a lot of loud outs lately. He’s very affordable and has fantastic hard hit and flyball rates in the last two weeks. Add increased exit velocities and batted ball distances to the data mix and he certainly seems due for a couple long balls very soon.
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Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.
